Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 28)
- The Philadelphia Phillies are -225 home favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday night
- Kyle Gibson (9-5, 3.06) pitches for the Phillies against rookie Humberto Mejia (0-0, 3.60)
- Odds and analysis can be found below with a prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to push their record over .500 when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:05 pm ET Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in the third game of a four-game series.
The Phillies (64-64) ended a three-game losing streak and got back to breakeven with a 7-6 victory over the Diamondbacks in 11 innings on Friday night. Philadelphia is in second place in the National League East, 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves.
The Diamondbacks (44-86), who have the worst record in the NL, had won their previous two games. They are heavy underdogs in this matchup.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +185 | +1.5 (-105) | Over 8.5 (-120) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -225 | -1.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-100) |
Odds as of August 27th at DraftKings
The moneyline has gone up after the Phillies opened at -210. There is a 20% chance of showers at game time with the forecast calling for 75 degrees with wind at 5-10 mph from the northeast.
Probable Pitchers
Rookie Humberto Mejia (0-0, 3.60) will pitch for the Diamondbacks against Kyle Gibson (9-5, 3.06).
Mejia will be making his second start since being called up from Triple-A Reno. He had a no-decision on Monday against the Pirates in Pittsburgh in his Diamondbacks’ debut when he worked five innings and allowed two runs and six hits while striking out seven and walking two.
Mejia vs Gibson
| 0-0 | Record | 9-5 |
| 3.60 | ERA | 3.06 |
| 2.74 | xERA | 3.86 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 3.50 | SO/W | 1.58 |
Mejia debuted in the major leagues last season when he started three times for the Miami Marlins. The 24-year-old made 18 starts between Reno and Double-A Amarillo this season and had a 5-8 record and 5.30 ERA.
Tip of the cap for Humberto Mejia! pic.twitter.com/8Pw8v8P01F
— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) August 24, 2021
After starting the year 0-6, Mejia went 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA in his last 10 starts for Reno.
Gibson has gone 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA for the Phillies in five starts since being acquired from the Texas Rangers in a trade.
Gibson has had quality starts in four of those outings. That includes Sunday when he allowed one walk and six hits in eight innings to beat the Padres in San Diego with three strikeouts.
In two starts at Citizens Bank Park since the trade, Gibson is 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA as he has surrendered seven runs in 10.1 innings. He is 5-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 night games (14 starts).
The nine-year veteran can make bad pitches look good.
Kyle Gibson leads all MLB pitchers with 92 out-of-zone called strikes. pic.twitter.com/f5GWgP0F7R
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 9, 2021
Gibson lost to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix on August 17 when he yielded three runs in six innings. He has a 1-2 career record versus Arizona despite a fine 2.00 ERA.
Mejia an Unknown to Phils
No Phillies have ever batted against Mejia in a major league game.
Center fielder Ketel Marte is the only player on the Diamondbacks’ active roster with much history against Gibson, going 3 for 12. Marte did not start Friday night because of right hip discomfort but did pinch hit then stay in the game at second base.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Diamondbacks Batters | Batting Average vs Gibson |
|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 1.000 |
| Josh VanMeer | .667 |
| Daulton Varsho | .500 |
| Nick Ahmed | .500 |
| Ketel Marte | .250 |
| David Peralta | .200 |
| Christian Walker | .000 |
| Bryan Holiday | .000 |
| Pavin Smith | .000 |
| Drew Ellis | .000 |
Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper has been one of the best hitters in MLB since the All-Star break. In 39 games, Harper is hitting .331 with 15 doubles, one triple and 10 home runs.
Bryce Harper hits his 25th homer of the season. Phillies lead, 2-0. pic.twitter.com/s6yfeh7hwO
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) August 28, 2021
Left fielder Andrew McCutchen has started only once in the last five games because of left knee inflammation. He has pinch hit three times in that span, though, including Friday.
The Phillies placed two bench players on the COVID-19 injured list Friday in catcher Andrew Knapp and rookie utilityman Luke Williams.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Pick
The Phillies beat the Diamondbacks for the first time in five tries this season on Friday and for just the fifth time in 28 games since the start of the 2016 season. Jean Segura had the game-winning single in the 11th.
Jeanie Bo Beanie came through!!!!!#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/kWFaXqhY5G
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 28, 2021
While the Phillies have disappointed in recent weeks, Gibson has lived up to his billing since the trade. Look for him to handle the Diamondbacks’ lineup.
The Pick: Phillies -225
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John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
