- The Houston Astros have won Games 3 and 4 by a combined score of 12-2
- Houston is now a -221 favorite to win the 2019 World Series
- Read our preview with odds and analysis to find out who the best bet is
The Houston Astros looked like they were in trouble when they lost the first two games of the World Series – especially with their best two pitchers on the mound. However, they’ve battled back in Washington to tie the series 2-2. They’re now again favored on the 2019 World Series odds but which side is the right bet?
Updated World Series Odds After Game 4
*Odds taken 10/27/19
Astros Pound Nationals in Game 4
The Nats figured to have their biggest pitching advantage of the series in Game 4 as they were throwing Patrick Corbin, the stud they signed for $140 million in the offseason, against Houston Astros rookie Jose Urquidy. The latter was fantastic, though, allowing just two hits and no runs in five innings, while Corbin struggled.
For a third consecutive start this postseason, Corbin was pounded as he gave up seven hits, four earned runs and two walks in six innings. He’s now allowed 14 earned runs in his last 11.2 innings of playoff starts. The Astros jumped on him early with two runs and never looked back.
Of concern for the Nationals – beyond the fact that they’ve lost momentum – is that the Astros offense is finally producing runs. Houston has now clubbed at least nine hits in every game in this series but they struggled to turn those hits into runs in the first two games. They now have 12 in the last two games while the Nats have just two in that span.
Astros Now Favored
We’ve seen the odds for the World Series seesaw quite a bit as Houston started off as a -215 favorite, then they dipped to -120 after they lost Game 1 at home. After they dropped Game 2, the Nats grew into a -265 favorite and it seemed like this thing might be a wrap. After all, they had won the first two games in Houston.
However, everything has changed in Washington. After the Astros won Game 3, Washington shifted down to a -120 favorite and now that the Astros took Game 4 to tie things up, they’re again favored – this time at -221. There has been value on both teams at different times but now the question is who cashes that value in?
It’s Up To The Aces
Games 5 and 6 are going to be pivotal as the aces are back for both sides. That starts on Sunday with Gerrit Cole taking on Max Scherzer in Washington. Cole has a 6.43 ERA so far this World Series after getting roughed up in Game 1 while Scherzer had a 3.60 ERA after his efforts in that contest.
At this point, I don’t want to bet against the Astros offense and Cole, who is not likely to pitch like he did in the opener. He had won 19 straight decisions before that, so I’m not eager to bet on him bucking the trend for a second consecutive game. With the Nationals offense going cold, it looks like under might be the best bet in Game 5.
As far as the series goes, you probably want to just stick it out with your tickets. The Nationals have blown it here and without momentum and without home-field advantage – again – I’m not eager to bet them. As for the Astros, I do think they eventually win but at -221, it seems like a steep price to pay.
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