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Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Saturday, July 15th, Including Strikeout Props for Andrew Abbott & Kevin Gausman

Matt Modi

By Matt Modi in MLB Baseball

Updated: July 17, 2023 at 10:21 am EDT

Published:


Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott
Jul 7, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
  • MLB player props are available for Saturday’s MLB betting slate
  • The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB against LHP
  • Check out the best MLB player prop picks for July 15th, below

We are another day removed from the All-Star break, and Saturday offers a world of MLB betting possibilities.

For our first pick, we will head to Cincinnati and take Andrew Abbott to record 7+ strikeouts.

Best MLB Player-Prop Bets on Saturday, July 15

Prop Odds
Andrew Abbott Over 6.5 Strikeouts -110
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts -136

The Brewers love to strikeout against lefties, and we will gladly take advantage of that with our first play backing Abbott to go over 6.5 strikeouts.

 

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MLB Player Prop #1: Andrew Abbott Over 6.5 Strikeouts

The Brewers strikeout 27.5% of the time against LHP, which is no.1 in the MLB, as mentioned above. The next closest team would be the Mariners, who are all the way down at 26.1%. That 1.4% difference is the same difference between those Mariners and the eighth-highest team.

Looking at their potential lineup, there are a total of nine guys who strike out over 25% of the time. Now we won’t get all nine, of course, but there’s no way the Brewers can get below six guys who love to strike out.

The haters are going to say that Abbott just pitched against the Brewers and only had 6 strikeouts, but that is actually something in our favor. One of the best betting strategies in all of sports is to bet the opposite of something that just happened. Generally, things even out over time, and he only threw 85 pitches in that game. He had over 100 pitches in four of the previous six starts.

Abbott himself is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 28.9%, which would put him as the seventh-highest in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. His K/inning rate is 1.17, which puts him in the 74th percentile.

Pick: Andrew Abbott Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

MLB Player Prop #2: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts

As much as I love fading recent trends like we did with Abbott against the Brewers, this is a situation where we are backing trends, and specifically Gausman as an elite strikeout pitcher.

He has made 19 starts so far this year, and he has gone under this number six times. He has also recorded double-digit strikeouts seven times, so the upside potential here is tremendous.

It’s rare that we get Gausmans over/under as low as 6.5, and the reason is because of how little the Diamondbacks strikeout. On the season, the D-Backs have the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate in the MLB at 21.1%, but that number has gone up recently. In the past 14 days, they strikeout the 11th-most in the MLB at 23.9%.

Just 10 days ago, Kodai Senga struck out 12 Diamondbacks, and the start before that Scherzer K’d 9. Gausman is as elite as they come from a strikeout perspective as well, with a strikeout rate of 32.6%, which is the second-highest in the MLB. Looking at K/9, his number is at 11.9 which is the third-best in the MLB.

Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)

 

Matt Modi

Matt Modi is a sports betting writer for SportsBettingDime. He offers his best bets for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, & WNBA. Previously, Matt worked at OddsJam, where he covered all things sports betting. In his free time, Matt likes to take his two dogs for hikes in the Colorado mountains.

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