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Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, July 25th, Including Strikeout Props for Edward Cabrera & Justin Verlander

Matt Modi

By Matt Modi in MLB Baseball

Published:


Jul 14, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) reacts after giving up three runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
  • MLB player props are available for Tuesday’s MLB betting slate
  • Edward Cabrera averages 1.25 K/inning, which is in the 86th percentile of all MLB pitchers
  • Check out the best MLB player prop picks for July 25th, below

We’ve survived yet another travel for the MLB on Monday, which leaves us a nice full slate of games on Tuesday.

Our first pick will be in Tampa Bay as we are backing Edward Cabrera to record 7+ strikeouts against the Rays.

Prop Odds
Edward Cabrera Over 6.5 Strikeouts -102
Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts -112

Cabrera admittedly has some stuff to clean up to vault himself into one of the games best pitchers, but the electric stuff is there. His K/9 rating of 11.25 would be sixth-best in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify.

 

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Odds as of July 24 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel promo code to wager on Tuesday’s best MLB player props.  

MLB Player Prop #1: Edward Cabrera Over 6.5 Strikeouts

I will admit that this play does require somewhat of an iron stomach. The Rays are scary overall, scarier at home, and Cabrera has only gone over this number in one of his last eight starts. So, yes, get some pepto for this one. With that said, I do love a good opportunity to take a reverse trends bet, which exactly what we are doing here.

I am also a sucker for pitchers that have electric stuff that just need to work out some kinks before they become truly an elite pitcher, and Cabrera has that type of potential. As mentioned above, his his K/inning and K/9 are elite, and, unsurprisingly, so is his strikeout percentage. He has a K rate of 29%, which would put him ninth-highest in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify.

That 29% is so good that it would put him ahead of stars such as Gerrit Cole and Zach Wheeler, and just behind guys like Joe Ryan and Jesus Luzardo. The issue with Cabrera has always been control and being able to pitch long enough to actually get to these type of strikeout numbers. But, with the Rays offense struggling recently, along with an increase in how often they strikeout, Tuesday seems like a great day for Cabrera to turn it around for us.

Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)

MLB Player Prop #2: Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Next up, let’s go with an under and fade the future hall-of-fame pitcher in Verlander. Simply put, this 6.5 number is too high for Verlander with the type of pitcher he’s become this year. If his name was Joe Smith instead, and didn’t carry around the name brand that he does, this over/under would probably be around 4.5.

Verlander has put together an impressive season after a brutal start, but he still just is not striking anybody out. He has only gone over this number of 3 of 14 starts this year. For our earlier bet we were fading recent trends, but in this case I actually think the trend of Verlander not being able to strike anybody out is worth backing.

His K/inning rate is 0.84 (24th percentile), his swinging strike rate is 9.7% (31st percentile), and his strikeout rate of 20.6% would put him in the bottom-20 in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. Unlike Cabrera above, Verlander has nothing close to good strikeout numbers, and is actually quite below-average.

Verlander has also pitched significantly better at home than on the road, as he has only gone over 6.5 strikeouts once in his six road starts, while averaging 4 strikeouts in those six games as well. The Yankees offense has admittedly been dreadful since Judge has been out of the lineup, but they should be able to do enough to cash this Verlander under for us.

Justin Verlander’s 6 Road Starts in 2023

Team Ks Date
San Diego Padres 2 7/07
Houston Astros 5 6/20
Atlanta Braves 3 6/8
Colorado Rockies 2 5/27
Cincinnati Reds 7 5/10
Detroit Tigers 5 5/4

Pick: Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Matt Modi

Matt Modi is a sports betting writer for SportsBettingDime. He offers his best bets for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, & WNBA. Previously, Matt worked at OddsJam, where he covered all things sports betting. In his free time, Matt likes to take his two dogs for hikes in the Colorado mountains.

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