Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Thursday, June 22, Including a +830 Home Run Pick

• MLB player props are available for Thursday’s MLB betting slate
• Braxton Garrett has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his last 8 starts
• Check out the best MLB player prop picks for June 22nd below

Thursday’s MLB betting slate only features eight games, as Thursday is a travel day for some teams. With that said, there are still plenty of MLB player props to lock in, so let’s get into it.

Our first pick will be in Miami, and we will be backing Braxton Garrett to record 6+ strikeouts.

Best MLB Player Props – Thursday, June 22nd

Our first play for Thursday’s MLB betting slate will be an over strikeout prop, taking Braxton Garrett to go over 5.5 strikeouts.

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Odds as of June 21 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel promo code to wager on Thursday’s MLB props. 

MLB Player Prop #1: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Garrett has been a strikeout machine as of late, and for some reason we only need to take -106 odds for him to get at least six strikeouts.

My guess to why the reason this is so low is because the Pirates don’t strike out a ton. Against left-handed pitching, they strike out 20.3% of the time, which puts them as the sixth-lowest team in the MLB.

In his last start he struck out 8 Nationals, which should almost count as double-digits because of how infrequently the Nats strike out. Anybody who has been following me knows how much I love targeting pitcher strikeout unders against the Nats because of that fact, but Garrrett got to 8.

Braxton Garrett – Last Eight Starts

While he’s no Spencer Strider, Garrett does have decent stuff. He has a K/9 of 9.95, which puts him at 21st in the MLB, ahead of stud pitchers such as Shane McClanahan and Gerrit Cole. He also has a swinging strike rate of 13.3% (79th percentile), and a called strike + whiff rate of 31.9% (87th percentile).

Pick: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

MLB Player Prop #2: Jack Suwinski to Hit a Home Run

I understand it might seem counterintuitive to take a pitchers strikeout prop over, and then a batter on the opposing team to hit a home run, but the lucky thing is that is is, in fact, possible for both to hit. When it comes down to it, the value on getting Suwinski to hit a dinger at +830 is incredible value that I couldn’t pass it up.

A pair of hometown blasts tonight for Jack Suwinski. pic.twitter.com/VVdVhCScqo

— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2023

The two stats that I like to look at when it comes to hitting piss missiles is ISO rate and barrel rate. Looking at FanGraphs, Suwinski has an ISO rate of 27.5%, which is considered excellent, by FanGraphs standards. That ISO rate also puts him in the top 10 in the MLB, ahead of guys such as Kyle Schwarber and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Now looking at barrel rate, Jack Suwinski’s barrel rate is at 9.1%, which is again considered excellent, this time by BaseballSavant. Essentially, Suwinski does a great job of hitting for power, while also doing a great job of hitting the ball on the barrel of the bat.

Pick: Jack Suwinski to Hit a Home Run (+830) 

MLB Player Prop #3: Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Nola is a player that I just can’t quite get myself to trust, especially this year. He is known as an ace, but the reality is he hasn’t been one this season. His strikeout rate is at 24.4%, which is the lowest it’s been since his rookie campaign. For the record, in 2020, his K rate was 33.2%; it was 29.8% in 2021; and last year, it was 29.1%.

The Braves are also on fire, so there’s that. In the last 14 days, they have the best WRC+ in the MLB, by a country mile too. Their rating is at 148, and the next closest team is the Padres at 126. That 22-point difference is the same difference as the second-best team and the 14th-best team.

They also aren’t striking out much, either. In that same 14-day span, they have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league at 17.5%, while also having the ninth-highest walk rate at 9.3%.

Pick: Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)