Brewers vs Braves Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (Jun 21)
By Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Atlanta Braves look for a series sweep with a win over Atlanta Friday night
- Atlanta is seeking is fourth series sweep on the year
- Read below for the my Brewers vs Braves prediction, latest odds and prop picks
The Atlanta Braves have the brooms out Sunday, hoping to be non-gracious hosts to the Milwaukee Brewers with a sweep, their fourth on the season.
The Brew Crew is struggling right now, with losses in three straight, and in danger of being swept for a fifth time already this season – probably a big part why they are road underdogs in the MLB odds.
Action gets underway at 1:35pm ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, a game that can be seen live nationally on ESPN Unlimited.
Read below for updated odds, and my prediction and best player prop picks.
Brewers vs Braves Odds
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Entering this afternoon matchup, Atlanta sits as a steady home favorite on the moneyline, getting -130 odds at bet365, while picking Milwaukee to win outright comes with +116 juice at FanDuel.
Bettors looking to back Milwaukee on the runline will have to lay a hefty -170 price at Caesars, but you’re getting 1.5 runs on the spread. Taking the Braves to win by at least two runs comes with much better +158 juice.
There’s slight variance in the total, with Over bettors likely going to BetMGM to get the line at 8.5 runs, paying out at -120. Meanwhile, Under bettors would likely prefer the 9.0 run line at bet365, paying at -120 odds.
MIL Brewers vs ATL Braves Prediction
- Best Bet: Braves ML (-130 at bet365)
The Brewers offense transforms into a highly disruptive force on the road.
Averaging an MLB-best 1.15 stolen bases per game in away contests, Milwaukee leverages aggressive speed to consistently manufacture scoring opportunities. This dynamic base-running fuels a highly efficient road attack.
Conversely, while the Braves hit the ball with blistering force, they have surprisingly struggled to translate that hard contact into runs. Atlanta is scoring just 4.35 runs per game at Truist Park, ranking a lackluster 19th in home offense.
That being said, Atlanta’s advantage appears to be in the MLB probable pitchers.
Taking the mound for the home team is right-hander Bryce Elder. Boasting a 5-4 individual record and a sharp 3.15 ERA over 15 starts, Elder has been highly effective for Atlanta. His ability to limit damage is evident in his 1.14 WHIP and low .222 opponent batting average.
Opposing him is Robert Gasser, who is still searching for his first individual victory. Sitting at 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA across his first five starts, Gasser has flashed potential but struggles with command. He carries a 1.38 WHIP and a bloated 6.10 FIP.
Gasser has no prior career regular-season history against the Braves lineup. This could lead to an unpredictable early-game dynamic as both sides make adjustments. But I find that more of an advantage for Atlanta, who are sixth in the majors in runs per game at 4.97.
Even without star Ronald Acuna Jr, they should be able to put up enough runs to leave with a victory Sunday.
Brewers vs Braves Props
Gasser Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+136 at FanDuel): Gasser brings a 9.00 K/9 rate and an ERA of 4.88 into today. When looking at his recent performances, a highly profitable trend emerges. Gasser has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in 75% of his recent appearances. Given his ability to generate swing-and-miss stuff, getting the over on this strikeout line presents a significant betting edge.
Sal Frelick Under 0.5 Hits (+173 at DraftKings): Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick is caught in a notable cold snap. Hitting just .230 on the season, Frelick has failed to eclipse 0.5 hits in four of his last five games. That is an 80% success rate for the under.
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Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.