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Brewers vs Cubs Picks, Spread & Odds (Opening Day)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 29, 2023 · 6:15 PM PDT

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes delivers to home plate
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws during the first inning of their game against the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis. Mjs Brewers20 4 Jpg Brewers20
  • The Brewers are -140 road favorites over the Cubs on Thursday in the season opener for both teams
  • Corbin Burnes (12-8, 2.94) is scheduled to pitch for the Brewers against Marcus Stroman (6-7, 3.50)
  • A look at the Brewers vs Cubs matchup and odds can be found below with a prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers will make the short trip down I-94 to face the Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET Thursday in the season opener for both teams at Wrigley Field.

The Brewers were 86-76 last season and finished second in the National League Central as their streak of four consecutive postseason appearances came to an end. The Cubs finished third in the NL Central with a 74-88 record for their second straight losing season.

Brewers vs Cubs Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Milwaukee Brewers -140 -1.5 (+120) Over 7.5 (-105)
Chicago Cubs +120 +1.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (-115)

The Brewers are -140 favorites over the Cubs in the Opening Day MLB odds, giving them an implied win probability of 58.33%. Milwaukee is listed at +3500 in the World Series championship odds and Chicago is at +9000.

It is expected to be a cool and sunny day in Chicago with a high of 48 degrees and southeast wind at 5-10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

Odds as of March 29th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brewers vs Cubs Probable Pitchers

Corbin Burnes (12-8, 2.94 in 2022) is scheduled to start for the Brewers against Marcus Stroman (6-7, 3.50).

Burnes vs Stroman

Corbin Burnes
VS
Marcus Stroman
12-8 Record 6-7
2.94 ERA 3.50
3.05 xERA 3.94
0.97 WHIP 1.15
4.76 SO/W 3.31

Burnes is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA against the Cubs in 14 career games, including eight starts.

Last season, he was 5-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 15 starts on the road. In day games, he was 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts.

Burnes allowed 11 runs (10 earned) and 23 hits in 19 innings during the exhibition season. He struck out 16 and walked five.

Burnes and the Miami Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara are +500 co-favorites in the NL Cy Young odds. Burnes won the award two years ago and Alcantara captured in last season.

Stroman struggled at home last season in his first season with the Cubs, finishing with a 3-5 record and 5.18 ERA in 12 starts.

In 12 starts during the day, Stroman went 3-3 with a 3.31 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers.

Stroman, whose Cy Young odds are +15000, had a strong Cactus League performance. He worked 10 innings and gave up two runs (one earned) and nine hits while striking out 10 and walking three.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Brewers Batters Batting Average vs Marcus Stroman
Willy Adames .538
Brian Anderson .500
Christian Yelich .286
Victor Caratini .200
Jesse Winker .167
Rowdy Tellez .000
Luis Urias .000
Cubs Batters Batting Average vs Corbin Burnes
Dansby Swanson .556
Eric Hosmer .333
Ian Happ .263
Tucker Barnhart .250
Nico Hoerner .250
Cody Bellinger .222
Patrick Wisdom .091
Nick Madrigal .000
Yan Gomes .000
Trey Mancini .000

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has given Stroman plenty of trouble, going 7 for 13 (.538) with two home runs. However, first baseman Rowdy Tellez is 0 for 6.

Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson, signed to a seven-year, $177-million contract as a free agent in the offseason, has homered twice off Burnes while going 5 for 9. Third baseman Patrick Wisdom is just 1-for 11, though, with a home run and eight strikeouts.

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Brewers vs Cubs Betting Trends

The Cubs had a strong Cactus League season, going 17-12 for the fifth-best record among major league teams in exhibition play.

Catcher Yan Gomes had a big spring, hitting four home runs and driving in 12 runs while going 12 for 39 (.308). Designated hitter Edwin Rios also homered four times to win a spot in the starting lineup.

Rookie Garrett Mitchell won the Brewers’ starting center fielder’s job by hitting .303 (10 for 33) with two doubles and four home runs. Utility player Mike Brosseau belted six homers, had 14 RBI and finished with a .375 batting average as he went 12 for 32.

Brewers vs Cubs Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
8/28/22 Brewers Cubs MIL, 9-7
8/27/22 Brewers Cubs MIL, 7-0
8/26/22 Brewers Cubs CHC, 4-3
8/21/22 Cubs Brewers MIL, 5-2
8/20/22 Cubs Brewers CHC, 6-5
8/19/22 Cubs Brewers CHC, 8-7
7/6/22 Brewers Cubs CHC, 2-1
7/5/22 Brewers Cubs CHC, 8-3
7/4/22 Brewers Cubs MIL, 5-2
6/1/22 Cubs Brewers CHC, 4-3

The Cubs won the season series last year for the first time since 2018, going 10-9. Brewers left fielder Christian Yelich – whose NL MVP odds are +10000 — had success against the Cubs, though, hitting .328 (21 for 64) with a double, a triple and four home runs.

The Brewers were 30-18 against Chicago from 2019-21.

Brewers vs Cubs Prediction

Stroman had a better spring than Burnes and has also had success against the Brewers. However, Burnes enters the season with a chip on his shoulder after losing to the Brewers in a salary arbitration hearing. Look for him to come out firing.

Pick: Brewers moneyline (-140)

 

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