MLB Futures Bets 2023 – Best Picks for MVP & Cy Young Odds, Plus MLB Win Totals
- MLB Opening Day is set for Thursday, March 30th
- There’s still plenty of time to make your 2023 MLB futures bets
- See odds and picks for our favorite MVP, Cy Young and win-total bets below
It’s hard to believe but Opening Day is less than 24 hours away. We’ve spent all off-season and spring training studying the tape and have narrowed down our favorite MLB futures bets to make prior to Thursday’s first pitch.
Our MLB futures card starts in the AL MVP odds market, where it is impossible not to love Shohei Ohtani. You’re certainly not swinging for the fences with his +220 odds, but no player in baseball is more valuable when healthy.
Shohei Ohtani to Win AL MVP
If you were to create the perfect baseball player in a lab, chances are the final product would look a lot like the Angels superstar. He has 50-homer upside, and the speed to steal 30 bases.
American League MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +220 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +650 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +800 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | +1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +1200 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr (TOR) | +1500 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | +1500 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | +2500 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | +3000 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | +3000 |
All Odds as of March 28 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ohtani hits not only for power, but for average as well. When he’s not tearing the cover off the baseball he’s mowing down hitters with 100 mph heat. We’ve never seen a player be the best hitter and pitcher on his own team to this degree, which is why he’s such a unicorn.
Ohtani is set to become the highest paid MLB player this year, with on and off the field earnings totalling $65 million. He proved he was worth every penny of that at the World Baseball Classic, where he earned MVP honors.
Ohtani hit .435 with a homer, four doubles and 8 RBI, while walking 10 times. He helped Japan become the first undefeated champion since 2013, posting a 2-0 record with a save and sparkling 1.86 ERA on the bump.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+220)
Shane McClanahan to Win AL Cy Young
Moving over to the AL Cy Young odds market, where Ohtani is also a top-six contender. His +1200 odds seem fair, but we’re looking a bit further down the board instead.
2023 AL Cy Young Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom (TEX) | +500 |
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | +700 |
| Dylan Cease (CHW) | +900 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | +1000 |
| Alek Manoah (TOR) | +1000 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +1200 |
| Shane McClanahan (TB) | +1500 |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | +1600 |
| Framer Valdez (HOU) | +2000 |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | +2000 |
Our target is Rays ace Shane McClanahan, who looked like the best pitcher in baseball for large stretches of last season. The 25-year-old had a tidy 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 2022, while averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
That makes two consecutive season with a K/9 rate north of 10 for McClanahan, who also lowered his walk rate last year, and saw a dramatic increase in his WAR. He posted a 4.0 WAR in his sophomore season, up from a 1.6 mark in his rookie campaign.
Only 1 starting pitcher had this combo of stats
– 20% K-BB% or better
– 50% GB% or better#Rays Shane McClanahan pic.twitter.com/vlaGD9WlMz— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 8, 2023
McClanahan also drastically reduced his hard hit rate percentage from his rookie season, while lowering his fly ball rate as well, and increasing his strand percentage.
He has the luxury of playing in front of a quality defense that will only help keep runs off the scoreboard, and he looked excellent in the spring. McClanahan didn’t allow a run in two starts, and is set up to hit the ground running as the Rays Opening Day starer later this week.
Pick: Shane McClanahan (+1500)
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 95.5 Wins
Bet against the Dodgers are you crazy? Hear me out. Yes, they have posted the most wins in baseball three times in the last four years, but they’ve yet to experience so many key departures during their impressive run.
Los Angeles Dodgers Win Total Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 95.5 | +100 |
| Under 95.5 | -120 |
Both Trea and Justin Turner are gone, as is power hitter Cody Bellinger and star closer Craig Kimbrel. They did add some big names to replace those players, like J.D. Martinez, but as constructed LA is going to have a tough time replicating their NL best offensive totals from a season ago.
Excited for the new-look 2023 Dodgers. It was time for a shakeup.
Departures:
T. Turner
J. Turner
Bellinger
Anderson
Heaney
Martin
Kimbrel
Gallo
Alberto
Kahnle
Rios
PillarAdditions:
J.D. Martinez
Syndergaard
Rojas
Peralta
Reyes
Miller
Feyereisen
Heyward— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) February 15, 2023
The bigger concern however, is the back end of their rotation. Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard are projected to be the team’s fourth and fifth starters and that isn’t striking fear into anyone.
They’ve already slipped from co-favorites in the World Series odds to the number four position on the oddsboard and there’s an argument to be made they’re not even the best team in their own division given the moves the Padres have made.
No one’s trying to tell you that LA is going to finish below .500, but reaching 96 victories in the MLB win totals for the fourth consecutive full season is a stretch.
Pick: LA Dodgers Under 95.5 Wins (-120)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
