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Dodgers vs Padres Odds & Picks for Sunday Night Baseball (May 7)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated May 7, 2023 · 12:06 AM PDT

Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove . vs Padres
Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove spits out some water in the dugout during a game against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field on April 22, 2023. Mlb Padres At D Backs
  • The Padres are -115 home favorites over the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball
  • Lefty Julio Urias (4-3, 3.86) will start for the Dodgers against the Padres’ Joe Musgrove (1-0, 10.80)
  • A look at the Dodgers vs Padres matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

The visiting Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play the deciding game of their three-game series at 7:10 p.m. ET on Sunday Night Baseball at Petco Park. Read on for an analysis of Dodgers vs Padres.

The Dodgers (20-14, 8-8 road) won for the seventh time in their last eight games when they edged the Padres 2-1 on Saturday night. The Padres (18-16, 10-10 home) lost for just the second time in six games.

ESPN will televise the game.

Dodgers vs Padres Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Los Angeles Dodgers -105 -1.5 (+155) Over 8 (-115)
San Diego Padres -115 +1.5 (-190) Under 8 (-105)

The Padres are -115 favorites over the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball, giving them a 53.49% implied win probability in the MLB odds. Los Angeles has +850 World Series championship odds and San Diego is listed at +1000.

The weather forecast calls for partly sunny, a high of 69, and west wind at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

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Odds as of May 6th at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Dodgers vs Padres Probable Pitchers

Left-hander Julio Urias (4-3, 3.86) is expected to pitch for the Dodgers against Joe Musgrove (1-0, 10.80). Urias will be working on four days of rest and Musgrove on seven.

Urias vs Musgrove

Julio Urias
VS
Joe Musgrove
4-3 Record 1-0
3.86 ERA 10.80
3.39 xERA 3.83
1.11 WHIP 1.68
5.63 SO/W 9.00

Urias was outstanding in his last start Tuesday, a win over the Philadelphia Phillies at home in which he surrendered only one run and one hit in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and one walk. That came on the heels of Urias losing his previous three starts with a 7.98 ERA.

The Padres have long had fits with Urias as he is 8-1 with a 2.32 against them lifetime in 17 games (12 starts).

Urias has a 1-2 mark and 7.20 ERA in three games on the road this season. The Dodgers are 4-3 when he pitches, and he has notched four quality starts.

At +500, Urias is the co-favorite in the NL Cy Young odds with the Atlanta Braves’ Spencer Strider.

Musgrove had a rough start his last time out when he gave up six runs and seven hits in 3.1 innings to the San Francisco Giants on April 29 in the thin air of Mexico City. Musgrove did not factor in the decision, though, as he walked three and struck out three.

Things got worse the next day.

The Dodgers have been Musgrove’s nemesis as he is 1-6 with a 4.12 ERA against them in 14 career games (10 starts). Musgrove’s lone win came in relief for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series.

This will be Musgrove’s first start of the season at Petco Park.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Dodgers Batters Batting Average vs Joe Musgrove
Miguel Rojas .500
Miguel Rojas .500
Freddie Freeman .458
Max Muncy .391
Mookie Betts .357
David Peralta .350
Trayce Thompson .333
Jason Hayward .235
Will Smith .188
Chris Taylor .174
Austin Barnes .167
Padres Batters Batting Average vs Julio Urias
Nelson Cruz .667
Manny Machado .345
Austin Nola .250
Jake Cronenworth .158
Fernando Tatis Jr. .154
Ha-Seong Kim .091
Juan Soto .050
Trent Grisham .000

Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is a .458 career hitter (11 for 24) against Musgrove with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Utility player Chris Taylor, though, is 4-for-23 (.174) with a double, a homer and 11 strikeouts.

Urias has faced Manny Machado often and the Padres third baseman is 10 for 29 (.345) with four home runs. Conversely, left fielder Juan Soto is 1 for 20, though the hit is a homer.

Dodgers vs Padres Betting Outlook

Taylor’s two-run home run accounted for all the Dodgers’ scoring Saturday as they edged the Padres by one run on Saturday night. Los Angeles managed just three hits.

Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy was back in the lineup Saturday after leaving Friday’s game with an illness. He was the designated hitter and went 0 for 2 with a walk.

Fernando Tatis Jr., whose NL MVP odds are +1800, had three of the Padres’ five hits.

Dodgers vs Padres Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
5/6/23 Padres Dodgers LAD, 2-1
5/5/23 Padres Dodgers SD, 5-2
10/15/22 Padres Dodgers SD, 5-3
10/14/22 Padres Dodgers SD, 2-1
10/12/22 Dodgers Padres SD, 5-3
10/11/22 Dodgers Padres LAD, 5-3
9/29/22 Padres Dodgers LAD, 5-2
9/28/22 Padres Dodgers LAD, 1-0
9/27/22 Padres Dodgers SD, 4-3
9/11/22 Padres Dodgers LAD, 11-2

This is the first series of the season between the teams. The Dodgers have a 178-102 advantage over the Padres since 2008, though San Diego upset 111-win Los Angeles last season in a National League Division Series.

Dodgers vs Padres Prediction

Urias got back on track in a big way earlier this week and is attractive at a good price against Musgrove, who has been erratic in two starts since beginning the season on the injured list with a broken toe.

Pick: Dodgers -105 ML

Season Record: 14-6 (+6.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 1-1 (+0.0 unit) O/U; 17-9 (+6.1 units) overall

 

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