McCutchen Trade Barely Moves the Needle on Yankees World Series Odds

• Yankees fans are considerably more excited than bookmakers over the team’s acquisition of Andrew McCutchen
• Can the former NL MVP rediscover his swing in the Bronx?
• Do the Yankees have any chance of catching the Red Sox?

The Yankees are officially all in. New York bolstered its lineup for the stretch drive on Thursday evening by acquiring former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for a pair of Minor League prospects.

The 31-year-old right fielder is batting .255 with 15 homers, and 55 RBIs this season, and will join a loaded outfield platoon featuring 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, 2017 AL Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge, emerging star Aaron Hicks, and long-time Yankee Brett Gardner.

Yankees fans have been overjoyed by the high-profile signing, but it appears that Vegas doesn’t share their enthusiasm. New York’s average odds to win the 2018 World Series have barely moved from +730 on August 28th to +720 on August 31st. The Yankees are currently available as short as +600 and as long as +800.

2018 World Series Average Odds

The lack of movement is indicative of two things. The first is McCutchen’s waning productivity. Cutch hasn’t been an All-Star since 2015 and his WAR has been in a freefall since 2014, when he finished first among all NL position players. His batting average, onbase percentage, and slugging percentage are also all down in 2018 while his strikeout rate is up.

Andrew McCutchen Statistics

McCutchen is still an above average outfielder, but Yankees fans shouldn’t expect him to suddenly rediscover his MVP form during the final month of the season. Ideally, his presence will allow Judge to take his time in returning to the lineup. The 6’7″ slugger has been sidelined with a fractured right wrist since July 26th and remains unable to swing a bat.

Judge isn’t the only Yankees regular on the shelf. Second baseman Didi Gregorius is nursing a bruised heel, catcher Gary Sanchez is on assignment in the Minors as he rehabs his strained groin, and closer Aroldis Chapman has been battling tendinitis in his left knee. Their various conditions all played in a role in preventing New York’s odds from improving more dramatically.

It’s hard to get excited about Andrew McCutchen when Aaron Judge’s wrist is destroyed.

— Jimmy Traina (@JimmyTraina) August 31, 2018

The other reason the McCutchen signing failed to wow bookmakers is because of the continued excellence of the Red Sox, who lead the AL East by 8.5 games and are on pace to set a franchise record for most regular season wins. Boston is currently tops in the AL in runs, hits, doubles, total bases, RBI, batting average, onbase percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. You have our admiration if you were able to read that last sentence without taking a breath.

Top 5 World Series Contenders

The Yankees will also have to sneak past the Astros if they hope to return to the World Series for the first time since 2009. Houston has won seven of its last ten games and is now firing on all cylinders since Jose Altuve’s return from the DL. The reigning AL MVP ranks third in the league in batting average and is hitting .345 with three doubles and a home run in his last seven days. He’s also pretty slick in the field:

Jose Altuve’s Baseball IQ is insane ??

pic.twitter.com/CaOUyh18yP

— Baseball King™ (@BasebaIlKing) August 25, 2018

McCutchen’s signing plugs a hole, but it doesn’t narrow the gap between the Yankees and the AL’s elite. For now the smart money continues to be on the Red Sox and Astros as the 2018 regular season winds down.