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Padres vs Twins Odds & Predictions (May 11)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated May 10, 2023 · 9:51 PM PDT

Minnesota Twins first baseman Alex Kirilloff is mobbed by teammates
May 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Alex Kirilloff (19) celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk off RBI single in the eleventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Padres are -120 road favorites over the Twins on Thursday
  • Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19) will start for the Padres against the Twins’ Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98)
  • A look at the Padres vs Twins picks and odds can be found below 

The visiting San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins play the deciding game of a three-game series when they meet at 1:10 p.m. ET Thursday at Target Field in Minneapolis.

The Twins (20-17, 11-7 home) snapped a three-game losing streak Wednesday night with a 4-3 victory in 11 innings. The Padres (19-18, 9-7 road) lost for the third time in their last four games.

MLB Network will televise the game.

Padres vs Twins Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
San Diego Padres -120 -1.5 (+132) Over 8.5 (+100)
Minnesota Twins +102 +1.5 (-160) Under 8.5 (-122)

The Padres are -120 favorites over the Twins on the moneyline on Friday in the MLB odds. San Diego has +1000 World Series championship odds and Minnesota is listed at +2000.

The weather forecast calls for most cloudy, a high of 77 and southeast wind at 5-10 mph.


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Odds as of May 10th at FanDuel. Get a FanDuel promo code to wager on Padres vs Twins on Thursday. 

Padres vs Twins Probable Pitchers

Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19) is expected to pitch for the Padres against Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98). Both will be working on five days of rest.

Darvish vs Ober

Yu Darvish
Bailey Ober
2-2 Record 2-0
3.19 ERA 0.98
3.16 xERA 3.12
1.12 WHIP 0.87
3.08 SO/W 2.67

Darvish is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts after losing his first two decisions of the season. He beat the Los Angeles Dodgers last Friday at home in his most-recent turn, allowing two runs (one earned) on four hits in 6.2 innings while striking out six and walking one.

In four career starts against the Twins, Darvish is 1-2 with a 2.73 ERA.

Darvish has a 1-1 record and 4.50 ERA in two road starts this season and is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA in four starts in day games. Darvish, whose NL Cy Young odds are +4000, has two quality starts in six tries and the Padres are 3-3 when he pitches.

Ober stayed unbeaten last Friday when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Guardians in Cleveland. He gave up three hits, struck out six and walked one while posting his first quality start of the season in three tries.

This will be Ober’s first career appearance versus the Padres.

In two starts at Target Field in 2023, Ober is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Those also constitute all his starts in the day this season. The Twins have a 2-1 record when Ober toes the slab.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Padres Batters Batting Average vs Bailey Ober
Xander Bogaerts .500
Adam Engel .000
Twins Batters Batting Average vs Yu Darvish
Christian Vazquez 1.000
Max Kepler .500
Jorge Polanco .250
Carlos Correa .211
Joey Gallo .000
Donovan Solano .000

Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts is 2 for 5 against Ober with one double. Conversely, Twins first baseman Joey Gallo is 0 for 7 versus Darvish with four strikeouts.

Padres vs Twins Betting Outlook

Alex Kirilloff’s RBI single in the bottom of the 11th gave the Twins the win over the Padres on Wednesday night.

Kiriloff and Kepler had two hits for the Twins with Kepler homering. Listed at +800 in the NL MVP odds, Juan Soto hit a home run, but the Padres were held to four hits.

Twins infielder Kyle Farmer (facial laceration/dental surgery) was activated from the injured list before the game and third baseman Juan Miranda was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. Farmer started at third base and went 1 for 3.

Padres vs Twins Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
5/10/23 Twins Padres MIN 4-3
5/9/23 Twins Padres SD, 6-1
7/31/22 Padres Twins SD, 3-2
7/30/22 Padres Twins MIN, 7-4
7/29/22 Padres Twins SD, 10-1
9/13/17 Twins Padres MIN, 3-1
9/12/17 Twins Padres MIN, 16-0
8/2/17 Padres Twins MIN, 5-2
8/1/17 Padres Twins SD, 3-0
8/6/14 Twins Padres SD, 5-4

The Twins lead the all-time series 17-8.

Padres vs Twins Prediction

Ober has pitched well since being called up from Triple-A and that makes the Twins a solid underdog play in this one.

Pick: Twins +102 ML

Season Record: 15-6 (+7.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 19-9 (+8.1 units) overall


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