Phillies vs Brewers Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (June 13)

• Jacob Misiorowski shut down Philly’s bats last night
• Milwaukee looks to keep pushing for the NL’s top seed
• Continue reading for my Phillies vs Brewers predictions and prop picks

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The Milwaukee Brewers (42-25) are continuing their series as home favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies (37-32) after securing a 6-0 shutout yesterday. In that matchup, Jacob Misiorowski pitched unbelievably, the defense played error-free baseball, and Jake Bauers homered. Meanwhile, the road underdog Phillies were shut down entirely, mustering a single hit.

Both teams are big favorites in the odds to make the NL playoffs. Milwaukee is a whopping -2000 while the Phillies are -400. The squads are third and fourth only to the Dodgers and Braves.

Fans can catch this matchup on June 13, 2026, at 7:10 PM EST at American Family Field. Philadelphia will look to bounce back with Aaron Nola on the mound. The Brewers counter with Shane Drohan, leaning on William Contreras and Christian Yelich to maintain offensive momentum.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Milwaukee enters as a clear home favorite, sitting at -162 on the moneyline after opening at -125. Early action has pushed the line steadily in their favor. The opening runline remains locked at 1.5.

The game total opened at 8 runs but has risen to 8.5. Heavy ticket volume suggests a high-scoring affair.

Odds as of June 13, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET from FanDuel

Brewers vs Phillies Picks & Predictions

I am backing the Brewers on the moneyline (-162, FanDuel) tonight. They enter with a distinct advantage on the mound and at the plate. Nola has endured a brutal campaign, carrying a 5.86 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP across 66.0 innings. Conversely, Drohan has been reliable, logging a 3.10 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 37.2 innings. Pair this mismatch with an offense outscoring Philadelphia 338 to 269 on the season, and the home side offers the best value.

I also recommend taking the Over 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) in this contest. Nola struggles to keep runners off the basepaths, which plays right into the hands of a deep lineup. With the road bullpen carrying a 3.86 ERA, run-scoring opportunities should be plentiful.

For the best player prop, I am fading the struggling starter. Nola routinely surrenders damage, so take Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-128, DraftKings). If you want an alternative plus-money angle, Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102, DraftKings) is an excellent investment. Chourio averages 1.30 hits per game and profiles well against this pitching staff.

When evaluating team trends, the numbers validate my selections. The Brewers are 29-14 as favorites this season, an impressive 67.4% win rate. Over their last 10 games, they are hitting at a 66.7% clip as the favorite (6-3).

Conversely, the Phillies struggle mightily as underdogs. They have won just 31.6% of their games when getting odds (6-13) and are winless (0-1) as underdogs over their last 10 contests. Furthermore, unders are prominent in their games, cashing at a 62.3% rate, though my analysis of tonight’s pitching matchup points toward the Over.

Let’s look at the per-game metrics driving these trends.

The glaring mismatch lies in overall offensive efficiency. Milwaukee crosses the plate 5.46 times per game at home, pairing top-tier contact hitting (.256 AVG) with aggressive base running. Philadelphia’s road splits are historically poor. They rank dead last in both batting average (.204) and OPS (.615) away from home.

Starting Pitchers & Batter Matchups

To understand exactly how these two starters stack up, we can evaluate their season-long performances alongside recent form.

Shane Drohan vs Aaron Nola

Nola has labored through a disappointing campaign with a bloated 5.86 ERA and a 3-4 record. An elevated 4.21 FIP and an opposing batting average of .284 highlight his struggles. His form has deteriorated further recently. Over his last 10 appearances, his ERA spiked to 6.66, and he is surrendering 3.33 walks per nine innings.

Positive regression is in full swing over Drohan’s last 10 games, where he has pitched to a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. By severely limiting free passes and increasing his strikeout rate (9.60 K/9), he is holding recent opponents to a meager .218 batting average.

Brewers vs Phillies Betting Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits provides a clear picture of how larger-stakes bettors are approaching tonight’s matchup.

For the moneyline market, the public heavily backs the home side. Milwaukee commands 81.5% of tickets and 55.6% of the handle. There is a noticeable 25.9% drop-off between ticket volume and overall handle, indicating some larger wagers are backing the underdog. Because Milwaukee still holds the majority of the money, this does not qualify as a true sharp vs public situation.

In the runline market, bettors expect a convincing victory. The action is entirely one-sided. A staggering 98.2% of the money and 86.7% of tickets are backing Milwaukee to cover the -1.5 spread. Big-money bettors clearly expect the home offense to capitalize on poor starting pitching.

My prediction to back the Over is also heavily supported by the splits. The Over holds 84.0% of tickets and 79.8% of the money. With nearly 80% of the financial liability tied to a high-scoring affair, the market expects these offenses to do damage.

Brewers vs Phillies Injury Report

Evaluating the injury report is crucial to understanding the available depth for both squads.

The most glaring name on the report is Philadelphia outfielder Adolis García. Sidelined with a right latissimus dorsi tear, his absence creates a massive void. Averaging just 3.64 runs per game on the road, missing a power-hitter limits their ability to generate extra-base hits. This further validates fading their team total.

Milwaukee is navigating several pitching injuries. Key starters like Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester are unavailable. Fortunately, Drohan’s recent dominant form has masked these rotational losses. They are also missing left-handed bullpen arms, including DL Hall, which limits late-game flexibility.

However, their everyday offensive lineup remains nearly intact, equipping them to maintain elite run production.