Pirates vs Cardinals Odds, Picks & Predictions (Skenes vs Liberatore)

• The Pittsburgh Pirates are -132 moneyline favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight
• Paul Skenes (3-3, 2.74 ERA) takes the ball for the Pirates, while the Cardinals counter with Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 3.74 ERA)
• See my Pirates vs Cardinals picks and predictions, below, along with the PIT vs STL odds

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-24, 5-12 away) and St Louis Cardinals (17-19, 13-6 home) meet again on Tuesday, with Pittsburgh looking to snap an ugly five-game losing streak. They’ll give the ball to Ace Paul Skenes, and his presence on the mound has online sportsbooks leaning the Pirates way in the MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 pm ET from Busch Stadium, in St. Louis, Missouri.

PIT Pirates vs STL Cardinals Prediction

My prediction is that Pittsburgh’s woes continue, despite having their ace on the bump. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year is off to an underwhelming start in 2025, yet still holds pole position in the NL Cy Young odds.

There are some signs suggesting Skenes may be heading towards a sophomore slump. His fastball and slider velocity are down a full mile per hour each. His swinging strike rate has declined from 13.1% to 12.6%, while his called strike rate is down 1.7% over his rookie campaign. That’s translated into fewer strikeouts, as his K/9 rate has gone from 11.5 last year, to 8.6 in 2025.

To make matters worse, he’s allowing hard contact at a 27% clip this season, compared to a 23.5% mark in 2024. More of his mistakes are leaving the yard, as his HR/9 rate has jumped from 0.68 to 0.84.

Also working against Skenes, is a terrible track record against St. Louis. Skenes is 0-3 lifetime against the Cards, and was tagged for 6 hits and 5 runs by St. Louis in a loss earlier this season.

Paul Skenes vs Matthew Liberatore Stats

The Cards bats enter play having produced 17 runs in their last three games, all victories. They rank top-13 in runs per game, slugging and OPS, and fourth in batting averge.

They’ll counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore, who’s allowed 2 runs or less in four straight starts. He’s 2-0 in three home outings this season, with a sparkling 2.00 ERA and .212 opponent batting average.

He’s catching Pittsburgh at the right time, as the Pirates bats are ice cold. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games, dropping eight of nine overall.

Pirates vs Cardinals Pick

• St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+112) at Bet365

Pittsburgh enters play as the third lowest scoring team in baseball. They rank bottom-four in batting average, slugging and OPS, and bottom-seven in hits. Over the last week, they’re slashing a dismal .227/.314/.324, and are batting just .226 against southpaws like Liberatore this season.

The Pirates offensive struggles, combined with Skenes’ underwhelming numbers, presents value on the Cards. I’m backing St. Louis on the moneyline as a home underdog, expecting them to extend the Pirates woes.

Pirates vs Cardinals Odds

The most favorable odds we can get on the Cardinals moneyline is +112 at Bet365. Pittsburgh is a -132 moneyline favorite, with the total currently sitting at 7.

Odds as of May 6th at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB today. 

Per the MLB public betting splits, the moneyline bets for tonight’s contest are split down the middle. More money however is backing St. Louis, as the bigger bettors are happy to take the value on the Cards like me.