Predictions, Props & Splits for Pirates/Marlins (Aug 13)

• The Pirates and Marlins wrap up their three-game series this afternoon
• Spencer Horwitz’s strong power metrics make him an enticing bet to clear 1.5 total bases
• See the predictions, props and splits for Pirates/Marlins on Aug 13, below

The Pittsburgh Pirates (58-63) face the Miami Marlins (61-59) in the series finale of their three-game set at loanDepot park today, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 PM EST. The home team Marlins posted a decisive 8-2 victory last night, and are looking to pull off the series sweep.

Despite their slightly better record, the Marlins find themselves as the home underdog in the MLB odds. The Pirates enter this matchup as the moneyline favorite, a nod to the pitching advantage the lines suggest they hold.

This game sets up a compelling pitching duel between Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft and Miami’s Tyler Phillips. The contest will be significantly impacted by the pitcher-friendly nature of the Miami ballpark.

I’m skipping any side or total bet for this showdown, focusing on the MLB player props market instead. Below, you’ll find the top predictions, props and splits for the Pirates/Marlins on Aug 13.

Player Prop Odds for Pirates/Marlins

Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds are highly favored to record at least one base hit, with their Over 0.5 total hits priced heavily on the negative side. However, for those seeking plus-money value, the Total Bases lines are far more appealing.

Spencer Horwitz and Reynolds both offer appealing odds north of +130 to exceed 1.5 Total Bases, requiring either two singles or one extra-base hit. This is where I see the immediate value hiding.

Pittsburgh’s Ashcraft is expected to generate significantly more strikeouts, while Miami’s Phillips is projected for a shorter outing, set to secure 14.5 outs. This variance in projected performance drives much of my analysis for the best prop picks.

Predictions and Props for Pirates/Marlins

The lack of specific historical player betting trends makes me rely even more heavily on season-long production metrics. I have identified three key picks that offer the best combination of value and statistical edge.

Pick 1: Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133 via Caesars)

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDDYW

CODE: SBDDYW

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR NEXT 10 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

I am backing Horwitz to produce against Tyler Phillips today. Horwitz has maintained a strong approach at the plate this year, evidenced by a 121.9 wRC+ and a respectable .261 batting average.

Crucially, in the small sample of MLB batter vs pitcher stats available, Horwitz is 1-for-2 with the only extra-base hit among all projected Pirates starters facing Phillips. This is a tiny sample size, but it is one of the few positive indications for a Pirates hitter against Phillips. His 0.159 Isolated Power (ISO) also suggests he is capable of ripping a double or a triple, which would immediately cash this prop at excellent plus-money odds.

Pick 2: Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 Total Outs (-118 via Caesars)

When a pitcher is as consistent as Ashcraft, betting the Over on his endurance often yields positive results. Ashcraft averages 5.75 innings per start, which translates to 17.25 outs. The line is set at 17.5 Total Outs, essentially asking him to complete the 6th inning.

Ashcraft is a high-volume strikeout pitcher with a 9.86 K/9 rate, meaning he often avoids deep counts and maximizes his outs efficiency. Given that loanDepot park is a notorious pitcher’s haven according to the MLB park factors, I anticipate Ashcraft will pitch deep into the game, surpassing the 17.5 mark and providing solid value at -118. This prop has a high likelihood of clearing based on his season average innings pitched.

Pick 3: Spencer Horwitz to Hit a Home Run (+625 via Caesars)

While Brandon Lowe is the top overall power threat, the value on Horwitz is undeniable based on the odds available from Caesars. I am taking the long shot here on Horwitz to clear the fence, given the favorable price and his demonstrated ability to produce extra-base hits against Phillips.

Horwitz’s season-long power profile provides enough statistical narrative to justify this long shot. At +625, this is the best available power prop value for a qualified batter from the compliant sportsbooks.

Odds for Pirates/Marlins

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Splits for Pirates/Marlins

Shifting to the MLB public betting splits for this contest, reveals that the bulk of the moneyline tickets (56%) and handle (71%) are backing the Marlins. That’s contradictory to my analysis of their advantage on the mound and at the dish, meaning I’ll be on the same rooting side as the sportsbooks for this contest.