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St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Predictions, Picks & Starting Pitchers (June 16)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 15, 2024 · 8:17 PM PDT

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher John King holds his glove over his mouth
Jun 15, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher John King (47) after Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ (8) hits a three run home run during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
  • NL Central rivals St Louis and Chicago close out a three-game set at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon
  • Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is coming off a seven-inning, one-hit shutout in his last start
  • See the St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs odds, predictions, and picks for Sunday, June 16

Archrivals clash in the rubbermatch of a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon when Miles Mikolas and the St Louis Cardinals (34-35, 17-20 away) face Jameson Taillon and the Chicago Cubs (34-37, 19-14 home) at 12:05 pm C/1:05 pm ET.

The Cards took the series opener in shutout fashion (3-0) but the Cubbies answered back with a 5-1 victory on Saturday afternoon.

Chicago is a slight favorite in the Cardinals vs Cubs odds for Sunday but the line is narrow.

St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
St Louis Cardinals (Mikolas) +110 TBD TBD
Chicago Cubs (Taillon) -130 TBD TBD

The Cubs enter Sunday as -130 home favorites to win the series with the Cardinals priced at +110. Both the game total and runline are off the board at the moment and likely won’t be posted until much closer to first pitch due to the ever-changing weather conditions in the Windy City. Games one and two of the series both featured pitcher-friendly winds.

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The Cubs and Cardinals are separated by just one game in the NL East, but both are well back of the division-leading Brewers. St Louis is currently 6.5 behind Milwaukee (and a +700 bet in the MLB division odds) while the Cubs are 7.5 behind the leaders and a +650 bet to make up the ground.

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Sunday’s pitching matchup features to starters coming off exceptional performances.

Miles Mikolas went 7.0 innings last time out against the Pirates, surrendering just one hit, one walk, and no runs with six strikeouts. Though his team gave him no run support and the Red Birds went onto lose 2-1. Jameson Taillon went six strong against the Rays, allowing four hits, one walk, and no runs with five Ks.

Miles Mikolas vs Jameson Taillon

Mikolas
VS
Taillon
4-6 Record 3-2
4.85 ERA 3.09
4.34 xERA 3.68
1.19 WHIP 1.30
18.4% K% 16.9%

The 35-year-old Mikolas isn’t having a banner season, posting a 4.85 ERA and a 4.32 FIP, but his numbers against the Cubs hitters are respectable in a large sample size. The Chicago lineup is slashing just .256/.292/.347 off the 6’4 righty with just two homers and ten doubles in 174 at-bats.

Dansby Swanson and Patrick Wisdom account for the home runs.

The Cardinals’ hitters have much better numbers against Taillon. In 105 ABs, they are hitting .324 with a .821 OPS, though they also only have two long balls (Matt Carpenter and Nolan Gorman).

Back on May 25, the Cardinals got to Taillon for three runs on nine hits and a walk over just 5.2 innings pitched in a 7-6 win. Mikolas was also the St Louis starter on that occasion; he went 6.0 innings, allowing three earned on four hits and two walks.

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St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

On paper, the pitching matchup would appear to favor the Cubs, but Taillon has been lucky this season according to his peripherals; he has 3.09 ERA but a 4.36 xFIP, which is actually higher than Mikolas’ 4.32 number. Mikolas has also been more effective against the lineup he’ll be facing on Sunday.

The St Louis bullpen has also been better than its lightly-used Chicago counterparts in almost every statistical category this season. The Cardinals sit ninth in bullpen ERA (3.96) compared to the Cubs in 14th (4.15), and 18th in WAR (18.7) compared to the Cubs in 27th (9.4). The St Louis bullpen is also second in the majors in HR/9 (0.98) while the Cubs are down in 20th (1.20).

Overall, the Cardinals offer better value as +110 road underdogs.

STL vs CHC picks: Cardinals moneyline (+110)

 

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