Twins vs Red Sox Picks and Odds (April 15)
- The Twins vs Red Sox odds favor Boston as -115 moneyline favorites on Friday (April 15, 2:10pm ET)
- Minnesota will give the ball to Joe Ryan (0-1, 4.50 ERA), while Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta (0-1, 6.35 ERA)
- Read below for the Twins vs Red Sox odds, analysis and betting prediction
Two teams off to underwhelming starts square off Friday afternoon in Boston. The 3-3 Red Sox host the 2-4 Twins, in what will be Boston’s first game of the season at Fenway Park.
This will be the beginning of Minnesota’s first road trip of the season, and oddsmakers are expecting an evenly matched affair.
Twins vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | -105 | -1.5 (+145) | O 10.5 (-105) |
| Boston Red Sox | -115 | +1.5 (-165) | U 10.5 (-115) |
Odds as of April 14th at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Boston opened up as slight -115 moneyline favorites, but it’s the Twins who have been assigned the more aggressive -1.5 runline. The contest features a total of 10.5 runs, while first pitch is scheduled for 2:10 pm ET on what projects to be a sunny afternoon.
Probable Pitchers
Minnesota will give the ball to Joe Ryan, who struggled with his control in his season debut. Ryan lasted only 4 innings in a 2-1 defeat to Seattle, surrendering both runs while giving up four walks.
Final line for Joe Ryan:
4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
70 pitches, 42 strikes (64%)#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/ng9cbYhhTo— Twins Daily (@twinsdaily) April 8, 2022
The 25-year-old showed loads of potential in his first season with the Twins last year, posting a 2-1 record in five starts with a 0.79 ERA and a 6.0 K/BB rate. He’s yet to face Boston in his young career, but did pitch much better away from home in 2021. Ryan was 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the road, compared to 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in Minnesota.
Ryan vs Pivetta Stats
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 4.50 | ERA | 6.35 |
| 1.50 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| .143 | OBA | .200 |
| 1.0 | SO/W Ratio | 1.3 |
The Red Sox will counter with Nick Pivetta, a name you won’t find anywhere near the contenders in the Cy Young odds. Pivetta was rocked by the Yankees in his first start, giving up four runs, including two homers, in 5.2 innings of work. The 29-year-old is fresh off a mediocre 2021 campaign where he posted a 9-8 record and a 4.53 ERA. He put up a decent K/9 rate of 10.16, but struggled to keep the ball in the yard.
Nick Pivetta’s reactions to Rizzo and Stanton’s home runs are hilarious@PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/bKOhVdysRD
— Bronx Central (@BronxCentral) April 10, 2022
That’s been a theme throughout Pivetta’s career, as he yields an average of 1.57 home runs every 9 innings. He’s been roughed up in his lone two starts against Minnesota, surrendering 15 hits and eight runs in 9 career innings.
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Analysis
Jore Polanco in particular has feasted on Pivetta. The Twins’ shortstop is 4-for-5 lifetime against Pivetta, with two homers and three RBI.
Jorge Polanco has hit another home run off Nick Pivetta. The #MNTwins infielder also took him deep in April 2019, the same night Polanco hit for the cycle in Philadelphia. pic.twitter.com/sYsviCDoTf
— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) August 26, 2021
Minnesota’s bats have been quiet to start the season, as they rank last in the American League in hits and OBP, and third last in runs scored. The Twins’ highlight of the season so far was a 10 run outburst last Sunday against the Mariners, but aside from that outing they’re averaging just two runs per contest in their other five games. In their last outing, they were held off the base path entirely by Clayton Kershaw through 7 innings, and finished up with just a single hit in a 7-0 defeat to the Dodgers.
FWIW Trevor Story’s March/April stats are his worst split by month.
.240/.315/.495/.901.
AVG, OBP, and OPS are all lowest of any month, and SLG is second worst.
He has started out 3-13 with just 1 RBI.#RedSox— Boston Sports Stats (@cam_cobey) April 14, 2022
Boston meanwhile, has hopes of being a contender in the World Series odds but so far its offense hasn’t cooperated. They rank below league average in hits, slugging and OPS, while prized free agent and AL MVP odds hopeful Trevor Story has only three hits in 13 at-bats.
Twins vs Red Sox Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/26/21 | Twins | Red Sox | BOS, 12-2 |
| 8/25/21 | Twins | Red Sox | MIN, 9-6 |
| 8/24/21 | Twins | Red Sox | BOS, 11-9 |
| 4/15/21 | Red Sox | Twins | MIN, 4-3 |
| 4/14/21 | Red Sox | Twins | BOS, 7-1 |
| 4/14/21 | Red Sox | Twins | BOS, 3-2 |
| 4/13/21 | Red Sox | Twins | BOS, 4-2 |
| 9/5/19 | Twins | Red Sox | MIN, 2-1 |
| 9/4/19 | Twins | Red Sox | BOS, 6-2 |
| 9/3/19 | Twins | Red Sox | MIN, 6-5 |
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Pick
With both teams underwhelming at the plate this year attacking the under on a 10.5 total seems like a strong play. Minnesota outings have produced more than 10 runs just once all season, while the under is 1-4-1 overall in their six contests.
Boston on the other hand, has seen four of its six games fall short of the total and while we’re clearly down on Pivetta it’s worth noting that only three of his past 13 starts have produced double-digit runs.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-115)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
