Picks for UFC 234 (Whittaker vs Gastelum) – Don’t Chase Underdogs

• UFC 234 takes place Saturday, February 9th, in Melbourne, Australia
• Can Anderson Silva upset Israel Adesanya?
• See our three best bets for the event

UFC 234 emanates from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia on Saturday, February 9th at 7pm EST. The main and co-main event tilts are of high consequence for the future of the Middleweight division.

The entire card offers up something for everyone, though. Of all of these compelling prize fights, here are the ones that I think represent the best bets. (If you’re looking for a further breakdown of the main and co-main events, see our UFC 234: Whittaker vs Gastelum Odds and Predictions.)

Rani Yahya Falls to Ricky Simon

*All odds taken 2/4

Yahya has a litany of choke-based victories and has taken home several limbs with him over a 6+ year career. Ricky is a streaking prospect and has held LFA gold (one of the bigger titles on the North American regional scene).

This is Simon’s most important bout to date against his toughest opponent. A lot of Ricky’s wins have been against similarly tenured, prospect-level talents, but this would be a chance for him to acquire a veteran scalp.

Yahya vs Simon Tale of the Tape

Simon definitely has to contend with the near 80% finishing rate of Yahya but I think Ricky can grind out the win. With Yahya at #15 per UFC’s ranking system, a great performance in Melbourne could jettison either man into a consequential 135 lb fight. 

It won’t be an easy out for either, but based on the respective ages and career arcs, I have to give the edge to Simon.

Pick: Ricky Simon (-135)

Israel Adesanya Over Anderson Silva

Considering who one half of this co-main event is, it may seem blasphemous to see this fight as one of the best bets.

Anderson “The Spider” Silva has amassed several UFC records, is the GOAT Middleweight, and many regard him as the pound-for-pound best MMA fighter of all-time.

Observing the two combatants recent five bouts, though, it’s hard to edge it to anyone but Stylebender.

Israel Adesanya has so far remained unbeaten in his career and the kickboxing marvel improves by leaps and bounds between MMA bouts. Whereas Anderson has only one single W in the last several fights/years.

Adesanya wins and likely gets the finish.

Pick: Israel Adesanya (-650)

Kelvin Gastelum Beats Robert Whittaker

I’m edging it to Gastelum but not to undermine Whittaker in any way. Bobby Knuckles’ resume and performances speak volumes. It’s just that Gastelum is such a high level game day player that I can’t help but pick him.

Both are excellent 185-pounders but the odds are set correctly in this fight.

Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (+205)