UFC 263 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Adesanya vs Vettori 2

• Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against Marvin Vettori in the main event
• Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno have their rematch for the flyweight title
• Nate Diaz also makes his return in a five-round welterweight bout against Leon Edwards

The UFC is in Glendale, Arizona for one of the best pay-per-views of the year. In the main event of UFC 263 on June 12, Israel Adesanya looks to defend his middleweight title as he rematches Marvin Vettori. The co-main event sees Deiveson Figueiredo defends his flyweight belt in a rematch against Brandon Moreno after they fought to a draw in December in one of the best fights of 2020.

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Also on the card is the return of Nate Diaz as he faces Leon Edwards in the first-ever non-title fight or non-main event five-round fight against Leon Edwards. We’ve already broken down the early odds, but the table below shows updated odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.

UFC 263 Odds

Odds as of June 11

Will Adesanya Defend His Throne?

Israel Adesanya is a unique spot as he’s coming off a loss but is still the champion. In his last fight, his bid for champ-champ status fell short as he dropped a decision to Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title. Now, he has to rematch Marvin Vettori in the same arena where he beat him by split decision back in 2018.

It’s a highly-anticipated matchup that only got more intense on Thursday night at the press conference. Adesanya and Vettori were going back-and-forth for the majority of the press conference as they discussed their last fight and Vettori saying he’s the superior fighter. Adesanya also took a shot at Vettori, saying he’s still on steroids as the Italian failed a USADA test just months after the loss to the now middleweight champ.

Fair to say the presser lived up to its hype 🍿👀 #UFC263

[ @Stylebender | @MarvinVettori ] pic.twitter.com/QHxYiMMjmP

— UFC (@ufc) June 11, 2021

Even though Adesanya is the bigger star, the odds have actually stayed around the same as he’s now a -275 favorite, but on Monday he was -250. Although it is an increase, in most of Adesanya’s fights his odds increase through the week, similar to Conor McGregor as fans start to arrive in the city and bet him. Yet, Vettori has a style that could pose some problems to the champ, so I doubt you will see “The Last Stylebender” be a -300 favorite.

Adesanya & Vettori Stats

If Vettori can’t get Adesanya to the ground with his wrestling he is in trouble. The champ has much better footwork and striking as even in the first fight, Adesanya was able to piece up the Italian, and even since then, the big knock on Vettori is he leaves his head on the centerline and gets hit a lot.

Ultimately, I think Adesanya has improved leaps and bounds since the first fight, and he will be able to stuff the takedowns and just piece up Vettori. I also think there is a possibility he becomes the first person to finish the Italian.

Pick: Israel Adesanya (-275)

Will Figueiredo-Moreno Live Up To The Hype?

Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno had one of the best fights of 2020, and since then both men have taken shots at one another, and the champ has made it clear he will KO Moreno in the first round.

Figueiredo says he was in the hospital the night before the fight due to a bad weight cut which Moreno didn’t believe as he said that was just an excuse. The champ didn’t like that, and at the press conference, he made it clear he doesn’t like the Mexican and wants to KO him early.

The tension is ＲＥＡＬ.

🇧🇷 @Daico_Deiveson vs 🇲🇽 @TheAssassinBaby happens Saturday.

[ #UFC263 | June 12 LIVE on E+ PPV: https://t.co/dCapuQlqjz ] pic.twitter.com/GnbZcrqSC7

— UFC (@ufc) June 11, 2021

Since Monday, however, the public has started to back Moreno as he’s down from +195 underdog to a +175. I do think the line was too high, to begin with, and there is some thought that the Brazilian will go guns blazing from the start and gas out and Moreno will take over and win that way.

Figueiredo & Moreno Stats

Ultimately, I do think Figueiredo will come out strong in the first round but will start to pull back as Moreno is still there but eventually, I expect him to land something big and hurt and finish Moreno in the third or fourth round. This is such a phenomenal fight, but Figueiredo is the better striker and has more power and will catch the Mexican here.

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (-225)

Other UFC 263 Picks:

1. Leon Edwards (-625): Edwards has become unplayable at this line, and at this point, if you are betting straight up, it’s dog-or-pass.
2. Belal Muhammad (-230): Muhammad should be able to keep this standing and piece up Maia to win a decision.
3. Jamahal Hill (-286): This fight shouldn’t last long as Craig will either get a submission or Hill will get the KO. I lean to the latter with Hill winning in round 1.

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