NBA Betting Trends to Know for Final Week – Cavaliers and Thunder Can’t Cover a Spread
- The Cleveland Cavaliers and OKC Thunder have been atrocious Against the Spread in the final weeks of the season
- Houston is having an historically bad ATS season, but Rockets have been covering lately. Is there a sound wagering strategy to fade the Cavs and Thunder this week?
- See a deeper dive on this topic below
We will be rid of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Cleveland Cavaliers in a week. They will remain irrelevant until the draft, and then they will go back into obscurity until autumn. Good riddance, right?
Well, not so fast. In the gambling world, those two teams will be missed by the sharps who have been keeping a close eye on NBA ATS trends. The sharpest of the sharps are now working on the sequels to the book: “How I Paid For My Yacht.” The dregs of the league will be on vacation soon enough, but there is still time for a fading strategy if a couple of trends hold.
Few teams in NBA history have been worse than the Thunder and Cavs, especially in April and May. Check it out below.
Cleveland Cavaliers ATS Results Since April 15th
Opponent | Closing Spread | Result |
---|---|---|
Dallas 5/9/2021 | Mavs -10.5 | Mavs 124, Cavs 97 |
Dallas 5/7/2021 | Mavs -10.5 | Mavs 110, Cavs 90 |
Portland 5/5/2021 | Blazers -12 | Blazers 101, Cavs 105 |
Phoenix 5/4/2021 | Suns -12 | Suns 134, Cavs 118 |
Miami 5/1/2021 | Heat -11.5 | Heat 124, Cavs 107 |
Washington 4/30/2021 | Wizards -6.5 | Wizards 122, Cavs 93 |
Orlando 4/28/2021 | Cavs -3 | Magic 109, Cavs 104 |
Toronto 4/26/2021 | Raptors +11.5 | Raptors 112, Cavs 96 |
Washington 4/25/2021 | Wizards -7 | Wizards 119, Cavs 110 |
Charlotte 4/23/2021 | Hornets -1 | Hornets 108, Cavs 102 |
Chicago 4/21/2021 | Bulls -2 | Cavs 121, Bulls 105 |
Detroit 4/19/2021 | Cavs -3.5 | Pistons 109, Cavs 105 |
Chicago 4/17/2021 | Bulls -3 | Bulls 106, Cavs 96 |
Golden State 4/15/2021 | Warriors -5.5 | Warriors 119, Cavs 101 |
What Does That Stretch Tell Us About the Cavs?
It tells us that they stink. Their one outlier game against the Chicago Bulls marked the only time in their past 14 games that Cleveland covered a spread (or won a game). The Cavs have the worst ATS road record (10-24-0) in the entire NBA, and they have four games remaining: Monday at home against Indiana; Wednesday at home against Boston; Friday at Washington and Sunday at Brooklyn.
The Cavs will tell you this season was a success because of the further development of guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland along with the acquisition of Jarrett Allen from the Nets in the multi-team James Harden trade.
But they were unable to get anything at the trade deadline for Andre Drummond, and the JaVale McGee-Isaiah Hartenstein trade does not exactly fall under the category “blockbuster acquisition.”
The Browns are destroying the offseason, the Indians are all alone in first place, and the Cavs only have 6 games left. pic.twitter.com/LGHHpY626g
— McNeil (@Reflog_18) May 7, 2021
Eight of those 13 losses have been by at least 16 points, including the Cavs’ six most recent games. They opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the Pacers for Monday night, and the line almost immediately moved 6 points to 8.5.
Among the five worst teams in the NBA, the Cavs are not alone in having such a negative streak.
OKC Thunder ATS Results Since April 23rd
Opponent | Closing Spread | Result |
---|---|---|
Sacramento 5/9/2021 | Kings -9 | Kings 126, Thunder 98 |
Golden State 5/8/2021 | Warriors -13.5 | Warriors 136, Thunder 97 |
Golden State 5/6/2021 | Warriors -14 | Warriors 118, Cavs 97 |
Sacramento 5/4/2021 | Kings -5.5 | Kings 103, Thunder 99 |
Phoenix 5/2/2021 | Suns -15.5 | Suns 123, Thunder 120 |
Indiana 5/1/2021 | Pacers -8.5 | Pacers 152, Thunder 95 |
New Orleans 4/29/2021 | Pelicans -9.5 | Pelicans 109, Thunder 95 |
Boston 4/27/2021 | Celtics -11 | Celtics 119, Thunder 115 |
Philadelphia 4/26/2021 | Sixers -15 | Sixers 121, Thunder 90 |
Washington 4/23/2021 | Wizards -9 | Wizards 129, Thunder 109 |
Thunder Have Been Slightly – But Not Much – Better
Three of the games listed in the table above were covers for the Thunder, which is actually an improvement for the team that is paying Al Horford $27.5 million to sit out the second half of the season.
Prior to the 10-game stretch listed above, the Thunder failed to cover in 12 of 14 games between March 24 and April 18. Their ATS record of 30-38-1 is not all tat bad, but at home they are 11-22-1 ATS, the second-worst in the NBA behind Houston’s home ATS record of 8-27-0.
It is well-documented that Thunder general manager Sam Presti is in the process of a long rebuild through the draft, accumulating 12 additional first-round picks (or pick swaps) along with 12 additional second-round picks. But as things stand now, the Thunder have a worse power rating than the famous tanking Sixers run by Sam Hinkie a few years back, according to Jeff Sherman of LV Sportsbook.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Thunder have been outscored by 490 points in their last 25 games, the worst margin of defeat by any team in any 25-game span in NBA history. Previous worst was by the 92-93 Mavs (489 points), who went 11-71 that season.
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) May 10, 2021
Those Aren’t Even the Worst Teams!
That is correct. The Houston Rockets are 16-52, and the Detroit Pistons are 20-49. Oklahoma City, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Orlando Magic and the Cavs all begin the final week of the season with 21 victories. But they are not equals when it comes to wagering.
Houston is 22-44-0 against the spread, the worst ATS record in the NBA. But the oddsmakers have caught on, and Houston is 5-4 ATS in the last nine games.
Detroit is 34-31-3 ATS, the Timberwolves are 32-34-2 and the Magic are 31-36-1. Which goes to show you that not all bad teams are created equally.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are ahead by 41 in an NBA game.
— Chris Hine (@ChristopherHine) May 10, 2021
Has This Ever Happened Before?
Cleveland and Houston are both covering against the spread at a rate of 35.3 percent (the Knicks lead the NBA at 64.2 percent).
It is extraordinarily rare to have a team cover less than 40 percent of the time. It happened last season with Minnesota, which covered 37.1 percent of the time ATS. But prior to that, you have to go back to 2017-18 to find a team that failed to reach 40 percent (Cleveland was at 39.8 percent that season). Prior to that, it happened in 2012-13 when the Charlotte Bobcats were at 38.3 percent. The prior season, the Bobcats were at 34.8, and in 2010-11 the Wizards were at 39 percent.
So over the past decade, an ATS conversion rate below 40 percent has happened only seven times. It is happening to two teams now, but the Rockets are not a reliable team to fade anymore. The Cavs and Thunder? Well, let’s just say their recent records speak for themselves.