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NBA Finals Game 5 Opening Odds – Suns Enter as 4-Point Favorites at Home

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in NBA Basketball

Updated Jul 14, 2021 · 9:47 PM PDT

Monty Williams talking to Chris Paul
Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns will be looking to bounce back in Game 5 after two straight losses to the Bucks on the road. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
  • The NBA Finals are officially tied 2-2 after the Bucks beat the Suns on Wednesday night
  • Ahead of Game 5 on Saturday, Phoenix are currently 4-point favorites
  • Read on for our analysis and predictions on how much the line could move

The NBA Finals are heating up. After falling into a 0-2 hole, the Milwaukee Bucks have stormed back with two straight wins on home court against the Phoenix Suns to even up this series ahead of a crucial Game 5 in the desert on Saturday.

Despite a 42-point performance from Devin Booker, Khris Middleton carried the Bucks to a very important 109-103 victory with a 40-piece of his own on Wednesday. This next contest is sure to be a dogfight, with the home team holding the clear upper hand in the series thus far.

Bucks vs Suns Game 5 Opening Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at FanDuel
Milwaukee Bucks +4 (-110) +146 Ov 218.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -4 (-110) -174 Un 218.5 (-110)

Odds as of July 14th.

Middleton Goes Off

On a night where the supporting cast wasn’t shooting the ball all that well, Middleton rose to the occasion and willed his team to the finish line. While Giannis Antetokounmpo still had a respectable night with 26 points and 14 boards, his right-hand man was the real difference-maker.

Middleton was having his way with the Suns’ defense. But, it’s not like Phoenix wasn’t making life difficult. The Bucks forward was honestly just red-hot, shooting 45% from the field and close to 90% from the line. He was finding his spots and hit numerous pull-up jumpers with a hand in his face, while also draining some timely shots late in the fourth quarter.

The Greek Freak made his biggest impact in Game 4 on the defensive end, registering a vital block in the dying minutes of the final period that proved to be key. While Middleton ultimately saved the day, Jrue Holiday in particular needs to be a lot better in Game 5. He collected a mere 13 points in 42 minutes of action and missed far too many open looks and simple lay-ups.

As a team, the Bucks shot just 24% from downtown. It didn’t hurt them too much, but it’s typically a big part of their success. Their defense as a whole was impressive though, forcing 17 turnovers which turned into 24 points.

CP3 Struggles, Book Erupts

Chris Paul is typically the heartbeat of the Suns offense. The one who makes everything click and opens up opportunities for his teammates. But, it was a night to forget for CP3, dropping just 10 points while collecting five turnovers.

One of his mistakes came at the worst possible times when the game was still in reach late in the fourth. He’ll need to bounce back on Saturday and return to his usual self in order to set the tempo early for Phoenix.

It almost looked like Booker could actually do it all on his own and grab a victory for the Suns. He had 38 points by the end of the third quarter after absolutely going off on the Bucks.

Just like Middleton, Milwaukee was all over Book. But, he wasn’t fazed, hitting countless shots over Bucks defenders. His fifth foul early in the fourth quarter forced Monty Williams to briefly take him out and he eventually scored just four more points in that final frame.

As a team, Phoenix really wasn’t shooting the ball well. The highest scorer outside of Book was Jae Crowder with 15. Their 30% clip from three-point land was also very unlike them, considering this is a club that typically thrives from beyond the arc.

The Suns are sure-handed as can be but those 17 turnovers were a real dagger in the end.

Will The Line Move?

The home team in the NBA Finals has had a clear advantage thus far. Phoenix won the first two in the desert, then the Bucks responded with a pair of victories in Milwaukee.

The Suns are also fantastic when playing on home court, losing just two games all postseason at Phoenix Suns Arena. The entire rotation always steps up and thrives off the crowd and after such a dismal performance, that’s what I’m expecting here.

With that in mind, the spread could potentially change by half a point, but no more than that. The Suns should deservingly be considered a favorite in Game 5.

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