Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Jan. 25)

• The Golden State Warriors host the Sacramento Kings on Thursday, Jan. 25
• Golden State is playing the second leg of back-to-backs after defeating Atlanta last night
• See the Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors odds, predictions, and player props for tonight’s game

With heavy hearts, the Golden State Warriors (19-22, 12-11 home, 20-21 ATS) returned to action last night for their first game following the passing of assistant coach Dejan Milojević. Golden State played one of its better games of a disappointing season, earning a 134-112 win over the struggling Atlanta Hawks. Just 24 hours later, they are back in action, hosting the Sacramento Kings (24-18, 10-10 away, 23-19 ATS) at the Chase Center in San Francisco (7:10 pm ET).

The rested Kings, who have been off since Monday, are listed as slight road favorites in the Kings vs Warriors odds.

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds

Sacramento is laying 2.5 points and is -127 on the moneyline in Thursday’s NBA odds. The Warriors come back +105 to win two in a row for the first time since Dec. 22-23.

Odds as of Jan. 25 on the BetMGM Sportsbook app. Claim this BetMGM sign up promo to get $158 in bonus bets. 

Both teams are close to full strength in Thursday’s NBA lineups. Chris Paul (hand surgery) remains out for the Warriors along with Moses Moody (calf) and Gary Payton (hamstring). Sasha Vezenkov (ankle) is out for the Kings.

Golden State’s win last night moved the team within one game of the Utah Jazz for the #10 seed in the West. If the season ended today, the Kings would hold the #7 seed in the NBA playoff bracket and face the #8 Dallas Mavericks in the 7-vs-8 play-in game in the Western Conference.

SAC vs GSW Public Betting Trends

Thursday’s NBA public betting trends show the public split on this game. As of 1:15 pm ET, the Warriors are getting 56% of ATS handle but the Kings are getting 58% of moneyline handle.

The public has a stronger stance on the total, with 79% of game-total money on over 242.5 so far.

Golden State’s Offense Clicks Versus Hawks

A welcome sign for all in the Bay Area, the Warriors offense put in a vintage performance last night, shooting 56% from the floor and 48.5% from three during their 134-112 win over Atlanta. Steph Curry (26.7 PPG) and Klay Thompson (17.5 PPG) both hit five three-pointers and were a combined 10-of-18 from beyond the arc. Jonathan Kuminga added 25 points off the bench on a perfect 11-of-11 performance from the field.

Inefficient performances from Curry and Thompson have plagued the Dubs throughout much of the season. Curry is shooting just 44.6% from the field, 3.1% lower than his career average (47.4). Thompson is shooting 42.5%, 2.9% lower than his career average and his lowest number since the 2012-13 season.

Curry and Thompson’s numbers are the main reason Golden State sits outside the top-ten in Offensive Rating (116.9, 12th). They’ve also faded drastically in Defensive Rating compared to last season, when they finished  14th. This season, they’re a concerning 24th, but hopes are high that will improve now that Draymond Green is back from suspension. Playing his second game since returning last night, Green managed 12 points, five rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block in 23 minutes.

Kings Snap Four-Game Losing Streak

Sacramento had been occupying a top-six spot in the West for most of the season, but faded to seventh due to a four-game losing streak from Jan. 12 to Jan. 18. It’s hard to find too much fault in the skid. Three of the four came on the road to Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Phoenix – all top-six teams in their respective conferences – and two were by a combined three points.

Sacramento got back in the win column last time out with a 122-107 win over the same Atlanta team that Golden State just routed, led by 32 points from Harrison Barnes. The Kings only committed eight turnovers the entire game and limited Atlanta to 38.7% shooting from the field.

The Kings, who led the entire league in Offensive Rating last season at 118.6, have taken a fairly big step back this year in comparison. They sit just 13th overall in O-Rating at 116.5. Their D-Rating has improved from 24th to 13th, however.

Point guard De’Aaron Fox is averaging a career-high 27.4 PPG this year as he takes on more of a scoring role. Meanwhile, Domantas Sabonis has taken on more of a point-forward role than ever, averaging a career-high 7.9 assists, while also currently setting a new career-best in rebounding (12.8 RPG) and still averaging 20.0 PPG.

Sacramento vs Golden State Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings Sportsbook app.  

Curry, who fell 3.5 points shy of his over/under point total last night (scoring 25 with an O/U of 28.5) sees his total drop to 26.5 tonight against the Kings, who are both much better than Atlanta defensively and play at a slower pace.

Fox has the highest total among the Kings at 26.5, roughly one point lower than his season average. Sabonis (20.5) is the only other player north of 20.

Kings vs Warriors Prediction

With a big lead in the fourth quarter, Steve Kerr was able to empty his bench and save his stars some minutes last night. Only Curry (31 minutes) and Thompson (30) played more than 29 minutes against the Hawks, and ten Warriors played at least ten minutes. With both games at home, as well, fatigue shouldn’t be as much of a factor as it usually is in back-to-backs.

The Warriors had been playing dreadfully uninspired basketball for the past two months. I am going to wager on the recent hardship providing the kick-in-the-pants required to get them out of their funk.

SAC vs GSW picks:

• Warriors moneyline (+105) – two units
• Curry over 5.5 assists (-125)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 10-10-2 ATS (-0.59 units)
• 11-14 ML (-2.17 units)
• 7-12 player props (-5.82 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.