Timberwolves vs Warriors Picks, Player Props & Odds (Game 3)

• The Warriors host the Timberwolves as 5-point home underdogs in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series on Saturday night
• Minnesota and Golden State are tied 1-1 heading into a pivotal Game 3 at the Chase Center
• Check out my Timberwolves vs Warriors picks and predictions below, along with top player prop bets and latest odds

The Minnesota Timberwolves bounced back with a convincing 117-93 victory in Game 2, evening their best-of-seven series against the Golden State Warriors at one game apiece.

As the scene shifts to the Bay Area for Game 3 on Saturday, oddsmakers have installed the Wolves as 5-point road favorites. Tipoff is set for 8:30 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, with ABC providing the national TV coverage.

Here is my Wolves vs Warriors prediction for Game 3, along with prop picks and NBA playoff betting odds.

Timberwolves vs Warriors Picks & Prediction

• Minnesota Timberwolves -5 (-114 at Caesars)

I’m backing the Timberwolves to cover the 5-point spread in Game 3. Minnesota looked impressive on both ends of the court in their Game 2 rout, and I expect that momentum to carry over on the road against a Warriors team still trying to find their identity without superstar Stephen Curry.

The Wolves shot a blistering 50.6% from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc on Thursday night. They had five players reach double figures in scoring, led by another stellar performance from Julius Randle (24 points, 11 assists, 7 rebounds). Minnesota’s depth was on full display, with key contributions off the bench from Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who combined for 31 points.

Defensively, the Timberwolves completely stifled Golden State, holding them to 28.1% shooting from downtown while forcing 17 turnovers. Minnesota currently boasts a top-five playoff defensive rating and the third-best opponent three-point percentage. They have the length, athleticism, and scheme to give the Warriors fits, especially with Curry sidelined.

MIN vs GSW Advanced Playoff Stats

Golden State, meanwhile, looks lost without their offensive engine in Curry. Steve Kerr trotted out 14 different players in Game 2, searching for any lineup combination that could generate consistent offense. The result was a disjointed attack that managed a meager 97.9 offensive rating. Unless Jimmy Butler or Buddy Hield can shoulder a much heavier creative load, the Warriors will continue to struggle to keep pace with the high-powered Wolves.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has been a strong bet as a road favorite this year. The Wolves are 24-20 ATS away from home and an impressive 5-2 ATS so far in the playoffs. I’m confident they can exploit a vulnerable Warriors defense that surrendered numerous open looks from the perimeter and points in the paint last game.

MIN vs GSW Player Props

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Timberwolves vs Warriors Player Prop Picks: Buddy Hield Over 14.5 Points (-110)

I’m targeting a pair of Golden State guards for my player prop bets. First up is Buddy Hield to score over 14.5 points. The veteran sharpshooter has eclipsed this total in three consecutive playoff games, averaging 19.5 PPG in the series.

Hield Last 5 Games

He’s tied for the team lead in shot attempts (33) and is scorching the nets from deep at a 53% clip (9-for-17). With Curry out, Hield should continue to see ample scoring opportunities.

Wolves vs Warriors Prop Picks Brandin Podziemski Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

I also like Brandin Podziemski to go over 18.5 combined points and rebounds. The second-year wing has seen a usage bump of over 4% with Curry sidelined, and he’s logging major minutes (31 per game vs Minnesota).

In this series, Podziemski has a 23.2% usage rate sans Curry, and his per-36 numbers in that scenario equate to roughly 18 points and 7 boards. A return home should help his shooting efficiency too.

Timberwolves vs Warriors Odds

The Timberwolves are laying 5 points on the road, with -114 odds at Caesars. On the moneyline, Minnesota is a -215 favorite while Golden State comes back at +180. The total is set at 201 points, with equal -110 juice on both sides.

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Odds as of May 10 at Caesars Sportsbook. See what’s available at Caesars Rewards before signing up.

According to the latest NBA public betting trends, 55% of moneyline bets and 32% of spread wagers are on Golden State as a home dog. However, the Timberwolves have covered in eight of their last 12 overall and seem to have the Warriors’ number, especially with Curry unavailable.