2019 Horizon League Tournament Odds: Northern Kentucky Favored
- Northern Kentucky is the favorite to win the 2019 Horizon League tournament.
- Wright State is the #1 seed, though, and right behind the Norse in the odds.
- Should bettors back the Norse, the Raiders, or a longshot?
The Horizon League tournament starts today (8:00 PM ET) with quarterfinal matchups between #1 Wright State vs #8 IUPUI and #4 Illinois-Chicago vs #5 Green Bay, followed by #1 Northern Kentucky vs #8 Detroit Mercy and #3 Oakland vs #6 Youngstown St. on Wednesday (7:00 PM ET).
The quarterfinals are played on campus with the better seeds getting home-court advantage, but the semis and finals will be at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit on Monday and Tuesday (Mar. 11th and 12th).
Odds to Win 2019 Horizon League Tournament
| Team | Seed | Horizon League Conference Tournament odds |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Kentucky Norse | #2 | +140 |
| Wright State Raiders | #1 | +180 |
| Oakland Grizzlies | #3 | +500 |
| Green Bay Phoenix | #4 | +800 |
| Illinois-Chicago Flames | #5 | +1400 |
| IUPUI Jaguars | #8 | +1400 |
| Detroit Mercy Titans | #7 | +6600 |
| Youngstown St. Penguins | #6 | +6600 |
As noted in the table below, NKU and Wright State had identical 13-5 conference records. Wright State earned the #1 seed in the tournament thanks to a better record against #3 seed Oakland (2-0 vs 1-1 for NKU).
Congratulations to the Northern Kentucky Norse and the Wright State Raiders, who share the Horizon League regular-season championship after victories on Saturday. Jalen Tate poured in a career-high 30 points,… https://t.co/hQ0JvMoGpb
— Chick Ludwig (@ChickLudwig) March 3, 2019
Horizon League Overview
| Team | Record: Overall & Conference | KenPom Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Kentucky Norse | 23-8 (13-5) | 107th |
| Wright State Raiders | 19-12 (13-5) | 125th |
| Oakland Grizzlies | 15-16 (11-7) | 190th |
| Green Bay Phoenix | 16-15 (10-8) | 206th |
| Illinois-Chicago Flames | 16-15 (10-8) | 202nd |
| IUPUI Jaguars | 16-15 (8-10) | 192nd |
| Detroit Mercy Titans | 11-19 (8-10) | 241st |
| Youngstown St. Penguins | 12-19 (8-10) | 265th |
Northern Kentucky and Wright State are the class of the Horizon League this year and have similar resumes, all things considered. The teams split their head-to-head meetings, with each winning by four points at home.
That said, they play very different styles. NKU plays uptempo and relies on its 73rd-ranked offense to outscore opponents. They average 79.0 PPG and their two leading scorers (Drew McDonald, 19.3 PPG; Jalen Tate, 14.1 PPG) both hit at over 42% from three.
Wright State, on the other hand, wants to slow you down and turn the game into a methodical chess match. The Raiders play at the 298th-fastest tempo and, despite only having the 141st-most efficient defense, sit 82nd in points against per game (67.8).
The only other unit in the conference that ranks in the KenPom top-100 is Oakland’s offense, which sits 97th.
Who’s the Best Value Bet?
Northern Kentucky and Wright State are the two best teams any which way you look at it. Between them, Wright State is better value. Yes, they have a slightly harder quarterfinal matchup against IUPUI, but for reasons discussed in the next section, they are going to advance.
In the semis, they will get a softer matchup than NKU, facing either Green Bay or Ill-Chicago. Those two teams went a combined 8-23 away from home this year.
NKU, on the other hand, will likely meet Oakland in the semis, and that’s incredibly dangerous.
At +500, Oakland may be the best value in the bunch. To start, they are very likely to advance to the semifinals. KenPom gives NKU an 87% chance to advance to the semifinals, while Wright St. and Oakland are both at 76%. That’s a product of Oakland actually getting to play the worst team in the tournament in the quarters thanks to Youngstown St. owning tiebreakers over IUPUI and Detroit.
Come the semifinals, the discrepancy in quality between the Grizzlies and the top seeds won’t be huge and there will be no home-court advantage. Not one of the Horizon League teams has a winning record away from home. The Grizzlies went a semi-respectable 6-10 outside of Oakland and already own a win over NKU (7-7 away), their likely semifinal opponent.
For those that buy into momentum, Oakland is also the hottest team in the league, winning four straight heading into the tournament.
Oh, and if you’re wondering why a team from the Bay Area is playing in the Horizon League, it’s not. Oakland is a Detroit suburb, so to the extent that any of the top-three seeds will have a location advantage in the semis and finals, it will belong to Oakland.
Best Value: Oakland Grizzlies (+500).
Who’s the Worst Value Bet?
No waffling here: it’s 100% IUPUI at +1400. They have to go to Wright State in the quarterfinals and the Jaguars have won just three games away from home all season (3-11 away).
The Raiders, meanwhile, are 14-2 on their home court. Only one of those losses came in conference play, and it was over two months ago that Ill-Chicago handed them a 75-72 OT setback at the Nutter Center.
IUPUI is going to be one and done in the Horizon Tournament.
Worst Value: IUPUI (+1400).
SBD’s NCAA conference tournament coverage:
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
