Georgia State Favored to Win 2019 Sun Belt Conference Tournament

• Georgia State is the defending conference tournament champions
• Georgia Southern is the highest-rated team of the top four in the Sun Belt according to the KenPom ratings
• Texas State finished with the best overall record in the Sun Belt

The 2019 Sun Belt Conference Tournament gets underway on Tuesday (Mar. 12th). The Georgia State Panthers are not only the defending champs, they’re also favored to win again.

Odds to Win 2019 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

It’s important to note that the top two seeds in this tournament – Georgia State and UT-Arlington – get a triple-bye to the semifinals and only need to win two games to with this title.

2019 Sun Belt Tournament Bracket

The Tuesday games are on campus while Round 2 through to the championship game will be played at Lake Front Arena in New Orleans.

Georgia State Favored But Four Teams In The Running

A quick glance at the tournament odds paints a very clear picture: Georgia State is the slight favorite but there are four teams in the running.

Georgia State is ahead by a nose but Georgia Southern, Texas State and UT Arlington are all priced at +330 or shorter. Everyone else is at +1900 or longer.

Georgia State Is The Best Bet

The Panthers, who are the defending conference champs, finished the season 22-9 (13-5) and are the No. 1 seed in the tournament. They’re a high-flying unit with five players who average double figures, and they have a number of marksmen from deep, with four players that shoot better than 40% from three.

.@TwoSpicee joins an impressive list of Panthers to earn all-conference first-team honors multiple times. It includes:

? R.J. Hunter
? Ryan Harrow
? Shernard Long
? Nate Williams pic.twitter.com/CnZ2JLWwni

— GSU Men’s Basketball (@GeorgiaStateMBB) March 11, 2019

What you also have to like is that this team beat the other three contenders in five of the six regular-season meetings. The only team they split with was Texas State.

They’re balanced, they’re experienced and they only have to win two games. Those are reasons to ride with the Panthers.

Georgia Southern Struggles From Three

Georgia Southern lost to Georgia State in their regular season finale, which propelled Georgia State to the No. 1 seed and Georgia Southern to the No. 3 spot. This is a team that’s also built around offense as they shoot over 50% from the field.

Breaking | Tookie and Quan named All-Sun Belt

? – https://t.co/BbccB8RL02@tookie_b @Qjacks13 #HailSouthern#letsFLY #SunBeltMBB pic.twitter.com/CXt7tzQwvB

— GS Men’s Basketball (@GSAthletics_MBB) March 11, 2019

The real challenge for this team – especially in two matchups against Georgia State – is that they’ve struggled at the three-point line. While Georgia State is 10th in the country (39.3%), Georgia Southern is tied for 257th (32.8%). They hit just nine-of-38 threes in the two meetings between the teams.

Don’t Be Fooled By Texas State

When you take a look at Texas State’s overall record, you might be misled. Yes, they’re 23-8 overall record is the best of the top-four teams, but they’ve also played nobody. Texas State’s strength of schedule ranked 212th, according to the KenPom ratings.

Georgia State and Georgia Southern were 121st and 113th in SOS, respectively.

Texas State also enters this tournament on a bit of a downer as they’ve lost two in a row and three of their last five games.

UT-Arlington Is Too Inconsistent

Although UT-Arlington is the No. 2 seed here, I’m not that excited about them as they finished just 16-15 overall. At one point in the season, this team was just 4-11.

While it might seem like they’ve had a massive turnaround, they’ve merely beaten up on bad conference opponents. They are just 3-3 against the top four teams.

FLIP THE SWITCH RT @UTA_MBB: #⃣5⃣ Edric Dennis (@ed_theshow)
Year: Redshirt Junior
Position: Guard
Hometown: Dallas, TX
Previous School(s): Jackson State / Hill College
High School: DeSoto pic.twitter.com/6DeCcaKCVy

— Jared Armstrong (@JaredArmstrong_) October 26, 2018

UT-Arlington is also too reliant on two players. Brian Warren and Edric Dennis both score at least 14.6 points per game. However, nobody else on the team averaged more than 8.6. If one of those guys has an off night, this team sinks.

Lastly, UT-Arlington is the lowest-rated team in the KenPom ratings of the Sun Belt’s top four by a wide margin (154th). That speaks volumes as none of the other three are below 122nd.