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NCAAM 2019 Colonial Conference Tournament Odds: Hofstra Given Edge Over Northeastern

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Mar 29, 2021 · 1:04 PM PDT

History suggests that favorites dominate the CAA Conference Tournament. Will No. 1 seed Hofstra win the 2019 title? Learn the best bets and start wagering today.
  • The 2019 Colonial Conference Tournament is a three-horse race.
  • Hofstra, Northeastern, and Charleston are all between +120 and +250.
  • No other team is shorter than +1200.

The 2019 Colonial Conference Tournament is set to tip-off on Saturday, March 9th. History suggests that this tournament favors the top seeds and that no team below the No. 3 seed stands much of a chance in the CAA.

The odds tend to agree.

Odds to Win 2019 Colonial Conference Tournament

Team Odds
Hofstra +120
Northeastern +180
Charleston +250
William & Mary +1200
Delaware +4000
Drexel +4000
James Madison +12500
Towson +12500
UNC Wilmington +12500
Elon +20000

The CAA Tournament is Down to Hofstra, Northeastern and Charleston

With all due respect to the other teams in this conference, the CAA Tournament should be a three-horse race. Only once in the last 25 years has a team seeded below the top-three won it and that was a No. 4 seed in the year 2000.

The oddsmakers clearly agree with this notion as Hofstra (15-3 CAA), Northeastern (14-4) and Charleston (12-6) are each at +250 or shorter. There is one team at +1200 (William & Mary) and then everyone else is at +4000 or longer. If you’re betting this tournament, your best bet is one of the top three teams.

Top Seeds Perform Very Well In CAA

I can’t stress enough just how well the No. 1 seeds have done at this event. The No. 1 seed has reached the title game in nine of the last 10 years and 16 of the last 18. That top seed has actually cashed in 11 times in the last 17 tournaments. 

Diving a little deeper, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams have met in the tournament final five times while four others it saw No. 1 versus No. 3. All of that bodes very well for Hofstra, which is favored at +120.

Reason To Worry With Hofstra?

They’re the top team in the conference for a reason but one has to worry a little bit about their recent play. We’re talking about a team that started conference play 12-1 but finished just 3-2. Some of their performances down the stretch are concerning.

 

This is a team that eked out a win over William & Mary and Charleston, then needed double-overtime to put away a Towson team that finished the season with a 10-21 record. They also barely beat Drexel (by three) in their second-last game.

They are the top-ranked CAA team at KenPom (80th), but that’s not too far ahead of Northeastern (91st) and Charleston (107th).

Keep An Eye On Northeastern

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northeastern win this tournament outright. This is a team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season right now. They have won nine of their last 10 games with their lone loss being an overtime setback at Charleston.

When you take a look at their conference losses, they’ve all been very close games. That overtime loss was by nine points. Their other three conference losses came by a combined nine points. This team has the best defense in the conference and the second-best offense.

What’s The Best Bet?

The challenge here betting against Hofstra is that they’re almost certainly going to be in the championship game. The schedule before them should be a cakewalk as Northeastern and Charleston are both on the bottom half of the bracket.

As mentioned, there is a huge gap in quality between the top-three seeds and everyone else. In the KenPom rankings, there’s a 37-place difference between No. 1 Hofstra and No. 3 Charleston, but a 92-spot difference between No. 3 Charleston and No. 4 William & Mary (209th).

At this point, what I’d probably do is bet on Hofstra futures right now at +120 and see how things play out. If (when) they make it to the championship game, they’ll be a favorite. At that point, you can hedge because they’ll be favored or stick with it if they seem to have regained their early-season form.

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