Odds to Make the 2019 Final Four for All Sweet 16 Teams

East Region Analysis

Duke was -200 to win the East before the tournament started. A close call versus UCF (77-76) coupled with a rematch against Va. Tech — a team that beat Duke earlier this year — in the Sweet 16 has tempered expectations for the Blue Devils, who are now as long as -160.

Duke isn’t a value play at -160 (61.5% implied probability), but dropping Duke that far is an overreaction to one close game.

UFC was uniquely suited to give Duke problems. Tacko Fall is one of the few players in the nation able to negate Duke’s significant advantage on the interior with Zion Williamson. While Zion finished with 32 points, he was not nearly as efficient as usual, shooting just 50% from the floor compared to his 68.4% season average.

He was forced to be a perimeter shooter much of the time, going 3/7 from beyond the arc. Zion was averaging fewer than two three-point attempts per game before the UCF tilt.

Virginia Tech has one rotation player taller than 6’6 and that’s 6’10 junior Kerry Blackshear, who’s seen both his defensive rebounding percentage and block percentage drop from his sophomore season. He’s a capable defender, but he’s not Tacko Fall. Plus, the more energy he has to expend on defense, the less he’ll be able to contribute at the other end, where he averages 14.9 PPG and shoots over 51% from the floor.

Neither Zion nor Justin Robinson, arguably the Hokies best player, suited up in the Feb. 26 meeting in Blacksburg. Don’t expect the rematch to look anything like version 1.0.

As a public team, Duke is usually laying more points than it should. KenPom has Va. Tech vs Duke as a 75-70 Blue Devil win, which seems to suggest the current spread (Duke -7.0) is inflated. But remember KenPom’s calculations factor in numerous games that Duke played without Zion, so seven points is pretty close to reality.

But -160 is still too short a price because waiting in the wings will likely be a very game Michigan State team, which is a six-point favorite over #3 LSU in the other East Region matchup. Led by arguably the best point guard in the nation (Cassius Winston), Sparty is undervalued at +280. This is the third-most efficient team in the nation, one which has fully adjusted to its injury-depleted roster.

When they reach the Elite Eight, the Spartans will be considerably shorter than +280 to win … even if they are playing Duke.

When they reach the Elite Eight, the Spartans will be considerably shorter than +280 to win that single game, even if they are playing Duke. Duke, on the other hand, won’t be much shorter than -160 if/when they matchup with MSU in the next round.

Betting advice: Bet on Michigan State (+280) now and consider hedging on their Elite Eight opponent.

West Region Analysis

The line on FSU vs Gonzaga is moving in the Seminoles’ direction, and the Noles are now around +275 on the moneyline. That’s still selling FSU short.

Florida State is one of the few teams that can matchup with Gonzaga’s hyperproductive frontcourt of Brandon Clark, Rui Hachimura, and the oft-forgotten Killian Tillie. Mfiondu Kabengele, Terrence Mann, and Christ Koumadje have been banging with the ACC’s best all season. They have both the athleticism and experience to win their matchups.

[Josh] Perkins was just 3/9 for nine points, four assists, and two turnovers [when Gonzaga lost 75-60 to FSU in the Sweet 16 last year].

In the backcourt, Josh Perkins is a huge question mark for the Zags. When Florida State brushed off Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 last year (75-60), Perkins was just 3/9 for nine points, four assists, and two turnovers.

The Noles will be just as hard on him this time around, which could seriously disrupt the rhythm of Gonzaga’s top-ranked offense.

With the other West matchup featuring two of the worst offenses remaining in the tournament, it’s hard to back either #2 Michigan or #3 Texas Tech when their odds are nearly twice as short as Florida State’s. FSU has lost two games in their last 18: a true road game against North Carolina and a neutral-site game against Duke in the ACC final.

Betting advice: Bet on Florida State (+730) now and consider hedging if they reach the Elite Eight.

South Region Analysis

Virginia got a good draw in the South, facing by far the weakest team remaining in the bracket, per KenPom’s efficiency ratings. Oregon rates 28th in efficiency, nine spots lower than the next worst team (LSU, 19th), and 27 spots lower than top-ranked Virginia. The Cavaliers are the biggest favorite by point-spread in the Sweet 16, with UVA favored by as many as 8.5 over the Ducks, depending on the site.

Virginia looked much more comfortable in its second game (a 63-51 win over #9 Baylor) than it did in round one (a 71-56 comeback win over #16 Gardner Webb).

Their trying history in the tournament is well documented and need not be rehashed here. If you believe the tournament is a different beast, fade Tony Bennett. If you believe the advanced metrics will prove portentous eventually, put your money on Virginia.

Not only has this team won back-to-back ACC regular-season titles, not only is it the only team in the country that ranks in the top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, it’s also been the single-best team to bet against the spread over the last two seasons.

Suffice to say, UVA has an extremely good chance to reach the Elite Eight. Is their potential opponent better value?

Both #3 Purdue and #2 Tennessee have pros and cons. Purdue is incredibly reliant on Carsen Edwards, and while he’s been hot (understatement alert) in both tournament games so far, he’s also liable to go cold.

If [Carsen Edwards is not] at his best in either the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, the Boilermakers are bowing out before the Final Four.

Edwards had just 11 points on 4/17 from the field when Purdue lost to a mediocre Minnesota team in the Big Ten Tournament. He was also held to just 9 and 13 points, respectively, by Indiana and Nebraska two of Purdue’s last regular-season games, going 1/21 combined from three. If he’s not at his best in either the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, the Boilermakers are bowing out before the Final Four.

But if he’s still the player who dropped 42 points on Villanova in the Round of 32, then Tennessee is on the brink.

It would be unwise to put too much emphasis on the fact that Tennessee let two inferior opponents claw their way back in the first two rounds of March Madness (#15 Colgate, 77-70; #10 Iowa, 83-77 OT), but there’s no doubt that this team is much better at home than anywhere else.

Excluding the first two rounds of the tournament, Tennessee is an uninspiring 10-5 in neutral-site games and away games, combined. Tennessee vs Purdue is shaping up to be a pick’em at tip-off.

Virginia will be shorter than -125 once they get to the Elite Eight, and predicting who their opponent will be is too risky a proposition given Edwards’ inconsistent nature.

Betting advice: Bet on Virginia (-125).

Midwest Region Analysis

This is the toughest region to call because All-American PJ Washington is suffering from a foot injury that kept him out of the first two rounds and might keep him out of the entire tournament.

North Carolina has the longest odds of any #1 seed at +135. If Washington were fully healthy, that would make sense. UK already handed UNC a neutral-site loss earlier this year, and the Heels will be facing one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation when they play #5 Auburn.

Auburn is 16th in the country in three-point percentage (38.2%) and jacks 49.7% of its shots from beyond the arc (8th-most in the nation).

Auburn is 16th in the country in three-point percentage (38.2%) and jacks 49.7% of its shots from beyond the arc (8th-most in the nation). As the game against Kansas showed, when the threes are falling, they’re basically unbeatable. Bruce Pearl’s squad also hounds the ball relentlessly on defense. It’s a high-risk/high-reward strategy at both ends for Auburn, which has now won 10 straight, including a 20-point win over Tennessee in the SEC final.

But the win over Tennessee aside, Auburn has generally lost to the best teams its faced this year. It fell to Duke, Kentucky (twice), and LSU, while splitting with Mississippi State. UNC will be the highest-rated team they have faced since playing Duke in November, and UNC looked good in the Round of 32.

Houston, the #3 seed, is too untested for me to back at +425. They still haven’t played a single team rated higher than 19th at KenPom (LSU). They didn’t play a single neutral-site game until the AAC tournament, either, where they got pasted 69-57 by Cincinnati in the title game.

Betting advice: Bet on UNC (+135).

SBD’s Regional Odds Analysis

• Updated Odds to Win East Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16
• Odds to Win Midwest Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16

SBD’s Other March Madness Coverage

• 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds: Zion Williamson Favored
• Michigan State Leads Non-#1 Seeds in NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds ahead of Sweet 16
• Odds Heavily Favor ACC Winning 2019 March Madness Entering Sweet 16
• East Region Leads NCAA Tournament Champion Odds Thanks to Duke, MSU
• Oregon & LSU Enter Sweet 16 with Worst Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament
• Entering Sweet 16, Odds Say at Least two #1 Seeds Make Final Four
• Zion Williamson Props for Sweet 16: Over/Under 24.5 Points vs Virginia Tech