Odds Say Zion Williamson Won’t Return to Duke Until ACC Tournament

• The Duke Blue Devils are ranked fourth with a 26-4 record
• Zion Williamson has missed four games since injuring his knee against North Carolina
• Williamson is projected to be the first pick in the 2019 NBA Draft

Breathe easy Duke fans, it seems the conversation has shifted from if Zion Williamson will return, to when.  Online sportsbooks have released odds on the projected number-one NBA draft pick’s return to the floor, and there is value to be had.

When Will Zion Williamson Return?

Odds taken 03/07/19.

There was a time Williamson was expected to return during the regular season, but that option has now slipped below the ACC Tournament on the odds list. Finding the value here is tricky, and comes more from eliminating the wrong answers than finding the correct one, so let’s work from least likely to most likely.

Skechers is running ads on Instagram and in The New York Times tomorrow calling out Nike for Zion Williamson’s ripped shoes. 👀 pic.twitter.com/WdDuyoc5OE

— B/R Kicks (@brkicks) March 2, 2019

Could Williamson Return for the Regular Season Finale?

Cross this one off the list immediately.  Duke only has one game left before the ACC tournament and it’s against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Williamson will not return for this game for any reason. There’s only a slim chance they could win the regular season crown and even if they did, who really cares? Fans of the Blue Devils don’t celebrate regular season accomplishments, so why risk any further injury to their superstar in this game, even if it is against an in-state rival?

Since Zion Williamson got injured 36 seconds into the North Carolina game, Duke is 3-2, outscoring opponents by 4 points per game.

The Blue Devils started the season 23-2 and were outscoring teams by an average of 20.3 points per game. pic.twitter.com/WWsU3Oqd24

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 6, 2019

Could Williamson Return for the NCAA Tournament?

If Williamson is going to return, it would make sense he gets back on the floor before the NCAA tournament. It’s more likely this is the answer than him returning to play UNC, but much less likely than the other options on the board. It would be risky to have him sit all this time and not see any game action until a do-or-die first round game. Fade this option with authority.

The Lakers season has been so bad, @JalenRose says they might as well try for Zion Williamson. pic.twitter.com/FGwAKrj6Sh

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 7, 2019

Is Zion Williamson Done At Duke?

While it’s looking less likely than it may have been a few weeks ago, there are still rumors that Williamson may be finished with college basketball. To me, it seems unlikely he’d be attending games and laughing it up with teammates if his exit had already been decided, but there are analysts out there that think he may sit out.

🎙️@ClayTravis: "I think Coach K has been told by Zion Williamson's people that he's not coming back to college basketball, but Duke isn't telling anyone to make sure they get a no. 1 seed.” https://t.co/xbqvK1dhxs

— FOX Sports Radio (@FoxSportsRadio) March 6, 2019

If you’re into conspiracy theories, the +600 return on your investment could be inviting. It isn’t crazy that a player potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the future may push pause on playing for free after that close call with his busted sneaker.

A Return in the ACC Tournament is Most Likely

The odds don’t lie and the -250 line on Williamson returning after sitting out against UNC in the regular season finale makes the most sense. Those making the case there’s nothing to gain for Williamson in college are actually incorrect. In addition to the NBA money he’ll make as a rookie, he’s in line for potentially the biggest rookie shoe contract in history. A championship or even deep run with Duke would endear him to fans and build his brand, whereas sitting out and playing it safe could cause fans to turn the other way.

Giannis Antetokounmpo on Zion Williamson, 'I Wouldn't Sit Out' https://t.co/2rb7n0LKrh

— TMZ (@TMZ) March 1, 2019

There’s one other shoe related item in play here and it’s the possible future negotiations with Nike. The longer Williamson sits out, the worse this looks for Nike. If he wants a lucrative relationship with them in the future, returning wearing a pair of Nike’s would go a long way.

If Williamson wants a lucrative relationship with Nike in the future, returning wearing a pair of their shoes would go a long way.

Even if he plans on signing with Adidas or one of the other players in the market, having Nike as a negotiating partner would be helpful. If Williamson is healed, and he surely looked fine bouncing around the court during Duke’s warm up the other night, sitting out would be a short-sighted option.

Pick: ACC Tournament (-250)