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Oregon’s March Madness Title Odds Inexplicably Drop from +1600 to +3300; Time to Buy Low on the Ducks?

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Updated Nov 26, 2019 · 10:13 PM PST

Ducks mascot on the court
The Oregon Ducks basketball mascot. Photo by Quintin Soloviev (wikimedia commons) CC License.
  • Oregon’s odds to win the national championship have risen to +3300 despite a 5-0 start
  • Senior point guard Payton Pritchard is leading the way for the Ducks
  • Oregon could face three top-15 teams this week at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas

Oregon entered the season with +1600 odds to win it all but that number has risen to +2200, on average, in the 2020 National Championship Odds, and as high as +3300 at Betway, even though the Ducks are 5-0 and ranked 11th in the country.

Odds to Win 2020 National Championship

Team Odds at Betway
Kentucky +700
Michigan State +700
Duke +900
Louisville +1100
Kansas +1200
North Carolina +1400
Gonzaga +1800
Memphis +1800
Villanova +1800
Virginia +1800
Florida +2000
Texas Tech +2800
Maryland +3300
Oregon +3300
Arizona +4000
Auburn +4000
Michigan +4000

Odds taken Nov. 26.

The Ducks are just the 15th choice to win the national championship despite solid early-season wins over Memphis in a quasi-home game in Portland and against visiting Houston at MacArthur Court in Eugene.

In addition to a strong standing in The Associated Press media poll, the Ducks are faring well in the statistics-based ratings. KenPom.com has the Ducks as the 18th-best team and USA TODAY’s Sagarin Ratings have them at No. 6.

Graduate Transfers Making Impact

Coach Dana Altman had some rebuilding to do to the roster after Oregon won the Pac-12  tournament last season and then advanced to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament before losing to eventual champion Virginia.

The Ducks have three freshmen and three transfers. Yet they have quickly melded together into formidable unit.

Two graduate transfers have made a major impact. Anthony Mathis is Oregon’s second-leading scorer, averaging 15.0 PPG and shooting a smoking 64.5 percent (20 of 31) from beyond the arc. Shakur Juriston, meanwhile, is chipping in with 9.0 points and 5.6 rebounds.

Mathis, an Oregon native, transferred from New Mexico to join former high-school teammate Payton Pritchard with the Ducks. Juriston came from UNLV.

Point Guard Pritchard Is a Veteran Leader

Pritchard, a senior point guard, is leading the way for Oregon. His 19.4 PPG and 5.6 APG averages lead the team and he is also pulling down 5.4 rebounds a game.

In an era of constant roster turnover, Pritchard provides a steady hand for the Ducks and will be starting his 115th game when the Ducks take on Seton Hall on Wednesday (9:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 27). He also is one of two Oregon players (along with legendary Ron Lee) to have 1,000 points, 500 rebounds and 400 assists in his career.

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Sophomore forward Francis Okoro has shown toughness while averaging 8.0 points and a team-best 7.3 rebounds. He missed the second game of the season against Boise State after being hit by a car while walking to practice the previous day, but has returned to play in the last three games.

Solid Statistical Markers

It is difficult to understand why exactly Oregon is getting dinged by the oddsmakers. The Ducks are faring well in the key KenPom.com statistical categories, ranking 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.7) and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.9).

On a more basic level, the Ducks are averaging 80.8 points a game, which stands 54th among the 353 Division I teams. They are 105th in scoring defense with a 63.8 average.

Schedule Toughens Up

Oregon is 99th in KenPom.com’s adjusted strength of schedule but it will get a chance to bolster that ranking this week at the Battle 4 Atlantis in Nassau, Bahamas. It will be the Ducks first trip outside their home state.

Oregon opens play against No. 13 Seton Hall, as mentioned. The Ducks could also face No. 8 Gonzaga in the semifinals and No. 6 North Carolina in the championship game of the eight-team event.

We’ll learn a lot more about Oregon in the next few days. However, at +3300, the Ducks certainly look like a worthwhile play.

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