James Blackman Has -800 Odds to Win Seminoles Starting Job over Alex Hornibrook

• James Blackman the heavy favorite to be Seminoles starting QB over transfer Alex Hornibrook
• Blackman already has 13 games starting experience with FSU
• Coach Willie Taggart says both players will compete to win the job

The Seminoles are set to begin their preseason camp on August 2nd before opening their season against Boise State in Jacksonville on August 31.

The 2018 team posted the school’s first losing record since 1976, a 5-7 finish in Willie Taggart’s first season as head coach. The team doesn’t have a predetermined starter entering camp after dismissing incumbent Deondre Francois last season. That said, sophomore James Blackman enters camp as the odds-on favorite to win the gig over Wisconsin transer Alex Hornibrook.

Here’s how sportsbooks set up the odds for Florida State’s starting QB role in Week 1 of the 2019 regular season.

Week 1 Florida State Starting QB Odds

Experience Makes Blackman the Favorite

Blackman has the edge because of his experience. He was thrown into the fire at FSU as a freshman in 2017, compiling 12 games of starting experience. He also impressed in his lone start last season, throwing for 421 yards, four touchdowns and an interception against North Carolina State.

FSU HC Willie Taggart has named James Blackman the starting QB going into fall camp over Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook. Taggart also stated Hornibrook will still have a chance to compete for the starting role during fall camp. Blackman has made 13 starts for the Noles so far pic.twitter.com/4vvQywsQLE

— All College Football (@allcfb_) July 17, 2019

Hornibrook transferred from Wisconsin this offseason and doesn’t have much time to adapt to an FSU playbook that varies quite a lot from the one he was accustomed to with the Badgers. He also dealt with a head injury last year and underwhelmed when he did play for Wisconsin.

Blackman’s experience with the Seminoles and familiarity with the system makes the starting job his to lose.

Does Hornibrook Have Value at +500?

While Hornibrook doesn’t have the experience that Blackman possesses, the Wisconsin transfer arrives at Florida State with a solid resume. He started 32 of the 35 games he played for the Badgers over three seasons and and was named MVP in their 2017 Orange Bowl win over the Miami Hurricanes.

Hornibrook completed 59.5% of his passes last year, throwing 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in nine games. His odds to be the Seminoles starting QB in week 1 of the regular season aren’t great because Blackman has the prior program experience. But if Blackman gets off to a slow start in camp, Hornibrook could very well run away with the starting gig.

Despite Hornibrook having to adapt to a new team in a short period of time, he’s managed to earn lots of praise from coach Taggart this offseason. “One thing I’ve been really impressed with Alex is he’s coming to our football program and it seems like he’s been there for years, just how he’s been relating to his teammates,” said Taggart.

Best Bet to Win FSU’s Starting QB Job

There’s plenty of hype surrounding Blackman and he’s a breakout candidate for the upcoming season.

Top 10 Breakout QB Candidates
(@AthlonSports)

1 Adrian Martinez Nebraska
2 Justin Fields Ohio St
3 Brock Purdy Iowa St
4 Alan Bowman Texas Tech
5 TOMMY DEVITO CUSE
6 James Blackman FSU
7 JT Daniels USC
8 Matt Corral Ole Miss
9 Tyler Johnston UAB
10 Hunter Johnson NW

— College Football Rankings ™ (@CFBRanking) July 23, 2019

It’s hard to see Blackman losing the starting gig to Hornibrook in camp. Blackman has knowledge of the Seminoles’ offense and has experience running the ball. His 13 starts have earned him the respect of his teammates and the confidence of coach Taggart. He’s also a fringe contender in the 2019 Heisman Trophy odds, a testament to his upside.

Hornibrook would be a good bet for taking over the role from Blackman if he falters out of the gate, but in terms of starting for the Seminoles in Week 1 of the regular season, I don’t see value on the longshot.

Pick: James Blackman (-800)

SBD’s QB Battle Coverage

• Tate Martell -150 to Win Miami Starting QB Spot
• Bo Nix Now the Underdog to Start Week 1 for Auburn; Joey Gatewood Odds-on Favorite at -150
• Ben Hicks Way Ahead of Nick Starkel in Odds to Start for Razorbacks in Week 1
• Odds Say Spencer Sanders (-300) Has OK State Starting QB Job Locked Up
• Odds Indicate Jalen Hurts Has Won Oklahoma Starting Job, Even If Lincoln Riley Says Otherwise
• Mississippi State QB Battle a Tight Race between Tommy Stevens and Keytaon Thompson, according to oddsmakers
• Matt McKay Heavy -250 Favorite to Win NC State Starting QB Job for Week 1