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Will Jim Harbaugh Be at Michigan or Back in the NFL in 2019?

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 3:23 PM PDT

Jim Harbaugh with his Michigan team before kickoff.
Is Jim Harbaugh likely to find himself out of Ann Arbor sooner rather than later? Photo by Maize & Blue Nation (wikimedia commons).
  • Another disappointing start has pundits speculating on the future of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan
  • Bettors can now wager on where the 2011 NFL Coach of the Year will be come 2019
  • Will the former 49ers head coach return to the pros or stick it out at his alma mater?

When Jim Harbaugh was hired in 2015, he was supposed to be Michigan’s savior. He was supposed to dig the Wolverines out of the 5-7 hole that Brady Hoke dug in his final season. He was supposed to take his alma mater to its first Big Ten championship since 2004.

That hasn’t happened.

A promising 10-3 record in 2015 stagnated in 2016 and then regressed to 8-5 last year.

Year Head Coach  Michigan Wolverines’ Record  Final AP Ranking
2014 Brady Hoke 5-7 Unranked
2015 Jim Harbaugh 10-3 12th
2016 Jim Harbaugh 10-3 10th
2017 Jim Harbaugh 8-5 Unranked

Heading into 2018, optimists pointed to the fact that Michigan had been unlucky under Harbaugh, losing toss-up, one-score games in ridiculous fashion.  They pointed to the fact that the team finally had a promising option at QB in the form of Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson. They pointed to the embarrassment of riches on the defensive side of the ball, led by future first-rounder Rashan Gary.

The optimists convinced the AP that Michigan was going to be a powerhouse this year, and Wolverines entered the year ranked no. 14 in the preseason poll. The optimists also put their money where their mouths were: after opening as a small road ‘dog to no. 12 Notre Dame in Week 1, Michigan closed as a three-point favorite.

But the Wolverines fell behind by 14 early on and never really recovered, needing a late fourth-quarter TD just to make it a one-score final (24-17).

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The play-calling for Patterson was ugly, and Patterson himself didn’t play well in Michigan’s uninspired system (20/30, 227 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT).

Now there is chatter that the seemingly perfect marriage between Harbaugh and Michigan won’t last, so much so that oddsmakers are offering a prop on where the coach will be next season. Michigan remains the favorite, but it’s not nearly as overwhelming as it would have been at this time last year.

Odds on Jim Harbaugh’s Job in 2019

Jim Harbaugh’s Job as of Spring Practice 2019 Odds
Michigan head coach -200
NFL head coach +300
Head coach of any other NCAA team +600
TV analyst +700
Baltimore Ravens assistant +2000
High school head coach +5000

The smart money here is on Harbaugh staying at UM. One of two things is going to happen with the rest of this season:

  1. Michigan is going to recover from its poor Week 1 performance and have a “successful” year, or
  2. Michigan is going to be a disappointment, just like last season.

Either way, Harbaugh is likely to remain, unless Option 2 includes something like a loss to Rutgers. But let’s focus on the realm of the possible.

We don’t need to spend too much time on Option 1. If Michigan wins the Big Ten, or even reaches the title game, that will be enough to quell critics and keep Harbaugh’s job safe . It would mean the Wolverines navigated a horrendously tough conference schedule and beat (at least one of) Ohio State and Michigan State on the road.

From Harbaugh’s side, unless he wins a National Championship, you have to think he’d be keen to run it back after that type of season, even though the 2019 team will lose a ton on defense (and potentially Patterson as well). He’ll be back in the good graces of the Michigan faithful, but still won’t have delivered on his ultimate goal.

As for Option 2, Harbaugh is a Michigan man through and through. He won’t leave his beloved program in a state of disrepair, and he’s unlikely to leave any school after a down year. He’s nothing if not proud and it feels like he’ll chase success wherever he is until his employer makes him stop.

Don’t forget, he was fired by the San Francisco 49ers prior to taking the Michigan job, and he only left Stanford after leading the Cardinal to a 12-1 record and their most successful season since 1940. Jumping his Michigan ship after two down years would be a giant L on his career resume, and I can’t see him recording that L voluntarily.

So the question comes down to this: will Michigan fire Harbaugh if this season goes poorly?

The safe bet is “no.” There will still be three years remaining on his seven-year, $52 million contract and, beyond that, you don’t move on from a coach like Harbaugh — one with a long history of winning and a strong recruiting track record — unless there is a slam-dunk replacement in the wings (one like Harbaugh).

[Schools] don’t move on from a coach like Harbaugh — one with a long history of winning and a strong recruiting track record — unless there is a slam-dunk replacement in the wings.

The school isn’t that far removed from the Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez dark ages. And even Hoke didn’t get canned until he missed a bowl game and Harbaugh was a potential replacement.

Betting on a similar situation playing out for Harbaugh isn’t a smart wager.

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