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Head-to-Head College Football Win Totals: Will Clemson Win More Games than South Carolina?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 3:10 AM PST

Long shot of Clemson's football stadium
The South Carolina Gamecocks have one of the toughest schedules in the country while the Clemson Tigers have one of the easiest. Photo by Melizabethi123 (Wiki Commons).
  • Clemson is pitted against South Carolina in a head-to-head win total prop bet
  • The Tigers have won at least 11 games in four straight seasons, while the Gamecocks were 7-5 last season
  • The Gamecocks have the toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN

Sportsbooks have released a slew of head-to-head college football regular season win totals. One of the best bets on the board is the Clemson Tigers to cover the spread versus their arch-rival, South Carolina.

The defending national champions are laying 5.5 games to the SEC also-ran.

Let’s take a closer look at why the Tigers are the smart play here, even though they have to win six more games than South Carolina to cover.

2019 Clemson vs South Carolina Head-to-Head Win Total Odds

Team Odds
Clemson -5.5 +105
South Carolina +5.5 -125

Tigers Have Soft Schedule

Remember that the Clemson Tigers play in the ACC, which is one of the weakest power conferences in college football right now. On top of that, they’re the defending national champs and are returning a roster filled with offensive talent, including Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

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Their schedule in 2019 should be a breeze. Their toughest game will be a Week 2 contest against Texas A&M, but they’ll host that game. Other than that, their toughest test is probably their season-ending game with the Gamecocks. Clemson should roll through ACC play with – at most – one loss.

Keep in mind that this team was 12-0 last season (in the regular season), 11-1 in 2017, 11-1 in 2016, 12-0 in 2015 and 9-3 in 2014. They have a strong pedigree of success. Pencil in 11 wins as a baseline..

Gamecocks Have Challenging Conference

When handicapping the Gamecocks, you have to consider that they play in the rugged SEC where the quality of teams is far better than the ACC. We also have a lot more questions about how good South Carolina will be (they won seven games last season) and whether they’re capable of running the SEC gauntlet.

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Taking a look at what they’ll have to deal with: the Gamecocks have to play Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M and Clemson. While this may be a program on the rise, they probably don’t win more than two of those games.

ESPN Rates Gamecocks’ Schedule Toughest In The Country

If you’re a believer in the strength of schedule metric in college football, then you should note that the Gamecocks have the toughest schedule in the country by ESPN’s measurements. Alabama, Clemson and Georgia are the three top teams in the country, purely looking at the  CFP Odds. Florida and Texas A&M should be top-ten teams, as well.

Beyond that, Missouri and Kentucky combined for 18 wins last year and Tennessee is on the rise. Even Appalachian State isn’t a pushover as they won 11 games.

Tigers The Best Bet

We’re looking at a spread here of -5.5, which means that, if South Carolina wins six, Clemson needs to win 12. I have Clemson sweeping their schedule while I have South Carolina beating North Carolina, Charleston Southern, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, and likely Tennessee.

I have the Gamecocks losing to Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M and Clemson. Add it all up and the Tigers are worth a play at -5.5 for this prop.


SBD’s NCAAF Head-to-Head Win Totals Coverage

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