2018 NFL MVP Odds: KC’s Mahomes Entering Contention
- Money has been coming in all offseason on Patrick Mahomes to win 2018 NFL MVP
- How much has the second-year QB’s odds changed?
- Who are the top contenders for 2018 NFL MVP?
When 2018 NFL MVP odds opened on April 10th, Patrick Mahomes was a mere afterthought at an average of +10000. But all the buzz about the second-year QB around Kansas City Chief’s camp – which has been both good and bad – has changed that.
Less than four months later, and without having seen the pivot in any more than his lone start in Week 17 of the the 2017 season, Mahomes’ average odds to win the 2018 NFL MVP have shortened all the way to +3500.
Mahomes is still well behind the top candidates, but it’s been quite the ride to this point. He now sits among the top seven AFC contenders for the award.
Odds for Top 2018 NFL MVP Candidates
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | +550 |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | +700 |
| Tom Brady | NE | +800 |
| Drew Brees | NO | +1500 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | +1500 |
Is Mahomes Worth a Wager for MVP?
With proven deep-threats around him in Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, one of the best tight ends in the league in Travis Kelce, and a reliable back in 2017 rushing champ Kareem Hunt, bettors were buying into the value with Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes really hit the crossbar on this throw ?, via @Chiefspic.twitter.com/CDj2debp6K
— Bleacher Report NFL (@BR_NFL) August 6, 2018
While there’s no doubting his raw talent, his 2018 schedule brings up major concern. The Chiefs’ play the tenth-toughest schedule in the NFL, based on opening projected win totals.
Of the top six pass defenses in 2017, Mahomes faces five of them this season: the Jaguars, Chargers (twice), Broncos (twice), Steelers, and Seahawks. Throw in games against the Rams and Ravens, and Mahomes is going to be in tough in his first full season as a starter.
You can still find Mahomes at +4000 but there are much better bets available.
Who Presents Value in 2018 NFL MVP Odds?
At average odds of +1400 and +1600, respectively, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson both present a much better wager than Mahomes.
Brees has surprisingly never won an NFL MVP; he’s going to become the NFL’s all-time leading passer this season; and will have to shoulder a heavier offensive load on a great team through the first four weeks without Mark Ingram.
Wilson, on the other hand, will again have to do it all for the Seahawks offense. If he can find a way to steal the NFC West from the Los Angeles Rams, he’d receive all the credit.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
