2018 NFL Win Totals: Why You Need to Bet on the Bengals

All the major sportsbooks have posted their 2018 NFL win totals. As the preseason continues, the odds, and the totals themselves, will change. For bettors, that means now may be the best time to place a wager, depending on the team you want to back (or short).

Leading up to Week 1 (Sep. 6th-10th), we will be highlighting some of the best over/under options on the board, starting with …

Cincinnati Bengals: Over 6.5 Wins

The Bengals are coming off a 2017 season that was widely considered a disaster, especially on offense where Cincinnati averaged a league-worst 280.5 yards per game. Yet, they still managed to go 7-9.

While two of those wins came against the lowly Cleveland Browns, a team which figures to provide much stiffer competition this year in the always-physical AFC North, there are myriad reasons to believe that the 2018 Bengals will be at least on par with the 2017 version in terms of wins.

1. The Bengals’ Strength of Schedule is Manageable

There are a number of different methods for calculating strength of schedule. The best method, in our view, is to base strength of schedule on the projected win totals of a team’s opponents. Based on that method, the Bengals have the 13th easiest schedule. Not a cakewalk, but not a gauntlet either. In addition to their six divisional games, they face the AFC West, which isn’t the powerhouse it used to be, and the NFC South, which might be the best division in the NFL, but at least includes the Buccaneers.

Their other two games are against the 4-12 Colts (Week 1, road) and the 6-10 Miami Dolphins (Week 5, home). The Indy game will be Andrew Luck’s first start since New Year’s Day 2017, if he makes it through the preseason, while the Miami game will bring Ryan Tannehill to town, another QB working his way back from an injury (torn ACL) that cost him the entire 2017 season.

All in all, it’s a navigable slate.

2. The Offensive Line Will Be Better

Cincy’s O-line was terrible last year, ranking 20th in pass protection and 24th in run blocking, per FootballOutsiders. Fans who subjected the unit to the “eye test” will be surprised they didn’t rank lower.

The weakest member of the line was center Russell Bodine, who has been replaced by first-round pick Billy Price (Ohio State). Though an untested rookie, Price figures to be a modest improvement at worst and could be a massive upgrade.

The same goes for incoming left tackle Cordy Glenn, who was acquired from the Bills and will replace Cedric Ogbuehi as Andy Dalton’s blind-side protection. Even in an injury-plagued 2017 season, Glenn was considerably better than Ogbuehi (61.8 grade vs 41.0 grade, per ProFootballFocus). When Glenn was healthy from 2013 to 2016, he graded out at over 80.0 in all four seasons.

That’s huge for the Bengals because Andy Dalton is significantly better when he’s not under pressure.

What impact does pressure have on quarterbacks? Even the best see a dip in completion percentage when pressured. pic.twitter.com/cWjyCV1oR1

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 15, 2017

3. Joe Mixon and John Ross Should Be Impact Players

When the Bengals spent their top two picks in the 2017 draft on two dynamic playmakers, they were expecting to vault into the upper echelons of offenses, not regress into literally the league’s most impotent attack. The pair did not pay immediate dividends, though. Second-round running back Joe Mixon averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and 44.7 yards per game. Part of the issue was the aforementioned offensive line, which failed to open the necessary holes. But Mixon also looked noticeably bigger and slower compared to his days at Oklahoma.

He will not only be running behind a better line this year, he also reported training camp slimmer and should have more burst.

Mixon looks nowhere like the guy that showed up at rookie minicamp last season. He figured he was 238 pounds then. Now after a full offseason of working out rather than traveling around the NFL he’s a svelte 225 pounds and he’s looking to drop five more. — Geoff Dobson, Bengals.com

Mixon’s lackluster rookie year looks like an All-Pro performance compared to first-round wide receiver John Ross. The 5’10 speedster out of Washington couldn’t stay on the field, suiting up for just three games due to a shoulder injury. When he was on the field, he was invisible, amassing zero catches on two targets. The only time he touched the ball was on a reverse, and he wound up fumbling.

4. The Bengals Know How to Play Without Vontaze Burfict

If there’s one reason to favor the under, it’s that Vontaze Burfict is suspended (PEDs) for the first three games of the year. The Will linebacker is arguably the most talented player not named Geno Atkins on the defensive side of the ball, and he racked up 69 tackles (5 tackles-for-loss) despite playing in just ten games in 2017.

If there’s one reason not to worry too much about the suspension, it’s that playing without Burfict has become routine for Cincinnati. Burfict was suspended for the first three games of last season, as well, and the Begnal defense gave up a very respectable 20.0 PPG in that span, a number that would have been lower if not for a 27-24 OT loss in Green Bay.

5. Tyler Eifert May Be, Just May Be Healthy

When the Bengal offense was firing on all cylinders in 2015, tight end Tyler Eifert was a redzone vacuum (13 TDs). He’s only played in 10 games over the past two seasons (back injury), including just two last year, and his absence was a huge part of Cincinnati’s offensive regression.

It looked like same-old-same-old ahead of 2018 training camp when Eifert, still trying to recover from back surgery, was placed on the PUP list. But the latest news is that he’s all systems go.

Don’t put too much stock in his health, though. He’s one strong gust of wind away from another trip to the IR.

6. Jeremy Hill is Gone

Addition by subtraction. Not much more to say about this one.

Matt Kelly’s 2017 breakdown is still broadly applicable to the plodding LSU product, who’s now with the Patriots and will inevitably win Comeback Player of the Year while leading the Pats to another Super Bowl.

Getting the Best Odds on the Bengals Over

If you’re reading this a couple weeks down the line, make sure to check all the latest odds at online sportsbooks to ensure you are getting the best possible payout.

Every cent counts when you are playing against the house.