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2021 Super Bowl Odds Updated After Wild Card Weekend

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Jan 14, 2021 · 9:41 AM PST

Buffalo Bills celebrate against Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen (17) celebrates with teammate Stefon Diggs (14), Dion Dawkins (73), and Zack Moss (20) after connecting with Diggs for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Indianapolis Colts Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
  • The Bills, Saints, Ravens, Buccaneers, Browns and Rams all won on Wild Card weekend
  • Eight teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt; the Chiefs and Packers are coming off of byes
  • See the updated Super Bowl Odds and the best bet heading into the Divisional round

Wild Card weekend certainly lived up to the hype.

The Cleveland Browns were the main story, dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers. But four of the other five games were decided by 10 points or less. And then there’s the Chiefs and Packers.

Those two remain the favorites to win Super Bowl 55, but there was significant improvement across the board when it comes to the field.

Super Bowl 55 Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +200
Green Bay Packers +400
Buffalo Bills +550
New Orleans Saints +600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
Baltimore Ravens +750
Los Angeles Rams +1600
Cleveland Browns +2100

Odds as of Jan 10th from FanDuel

The Packers enjoyed a slight bump in their odds from last week, but still sit second. LA and Cleveland both made big jumps in the Super Bowl odds, after their upsets.

The Ravens and Buccaneers also enjoyed modest moves up the table.

Saints vs Buccaneers: Round 3

Either Drew Brees or Tom Brady will be appearing in the NFC Championship game as the two face off for a third time this year.

New Orleans won Week 1 34-23, and then followed it up with a 38-3 smackdown in Week 9. Brady threw for a combined 448 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions. He was also sacked six times.

The popular thought in the NFL is it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season. But going back to 1970, a team has gone 3-0 against an opponent 14 times in 21 attempts. Brees’ Saints were the last to do it in 2017-18 against the Panthers.

Neither team turned in a flawless performance on Wild Card weekend, but fans or not, homefield gives the Saints the edge.

 Good News for Banged-up Rams

While the Rams escaped Seattle with a victory, there were a lot of potentially big injuries.

The good news, is that both Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald both avoided serious injury.

Then you’ve got the emergence of Cam Akers. But the questions at quarterback will hold the Rams back.

LA’s bringing the top-ranked defense to town to take on the top-ranked offense. But even with Akers potentially feasting on PFF’s 15th-ranked run defense, it’s tough to back a team where the quarterback is recovering from either a broken thumb or a stinger.

Jackson vs Allen Brings Intrigue

The Ravens and Bills may be the two most interesting teams on the board, and it has everything to do with their quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson earned his first postseason win on Sunday. His legs are his biggest weapon, and he racked up 136 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Ravens running backs accounted for 19 carries.

On the other side, Josh Allen did a little bit of everything in Buffalo’s win over the Colts, and the Bills’ offense faced a stiffer challenge in Indy’s defense.

Their Divisional round tilt should be wildly entertaining, and the ability of both QBs makes the AFC bracket much more entertaining.

Backing Browns Becomes Tough Against Mahomes

The Cleveland Browns became the feel-good story of the NFL playoffs six minutes into their first playoff game since 2002.

Now they get the Chiefs.

Full credit to Cleveland: they forced Ben Roethlisberger into three interceptions in the first half and recovered a fumble for a TD. They would likely need a similar series of events against KC however. That’s a pretty big ask.

No Need to Go Against Packers

A week ago the smart play was to back the Chiefs and Packers. Both have winnable games in the Divisional round and home field advantage in the championship games.

But given the choice, the Packers are the better value.

At this point it’s tough to see either the Saints or Buccaneers winning at Lambeau. In the AFC, a Jackson-Mahomes or Allen-Mahomes AFC Championship would be fun, but carries a little bit of risk.

So ahead of the Divisional round, that leaves the Packers with the clearest path to the Lombardi Trophy.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers (+400)

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