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2024 NFL Draft Predictions: Picks, Best Bets & Odds for NFL Draft Props

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 24, 2024 · 2:43 PM PDT

NFL Draft helmet sitting on a table
A behind-the-scenes look at the NFL draft's green room outside the main theater area photographed on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. The NFL draft will be held in Detroit later this week.
  • There are hundreds of NFL Draft props available for bettors ahead of the first round on April 25
  • Weeding through all of the bets available for the NFL Draft can be exhausting (if it’s not your job)
  • I have shared my NFL Draft predictions and best bets below

We are just one day away from the 2024 NFL Draft – or maybe just hours, depending when you’re reading this! Some of us have been placing bets on the NFL Draft for months, maybe even nearly a year if you’re that giddy, but not everyone has the time to check in on these lines that early. Not to mention there have been plenty of other sporting events competing for your attention.

If you’re looking for some NFL Draft bets/predictions, you have come to the right place! I have a handful of picks that were available at the time of publishing this, as well as a handful of NFL Draft predictions I have made over the past couple of months where we might see some value if the betting odds shift accordingly.

In trying to handicap the NFL Draft, I find it best to fill out an NFL mock draft based on the odds. I try to take out personal opinion in order to just take a look at what the odds are suggesting will happen on Thursday night. I filled out my first NFL mock draft a little over a week ago, but the odds have changed quite a bit since then. So, I filled out one more today (Wednesday) in an attempt to find some more NFL Draft bets I like. In my most recent mock, I didn’t worry about filling out which team will actually be making the selection – lines were on the move this afternoon and I wanted to not only lock in my bets ASAP, but also get my predictions in front of you before lines changed further.

2024 NFL first-round mock draft 2.0

In filling out the mock draft above, I really prioritized NFL Draft props that allow you to bet both sides / all outcomes. So, draft position over/unders were my preferred prop, but I did consider everything available. If you’re like me, there are too many players above that just don’t seem like a good fit where they have been placed. This is the starting point for me putting together my NFL Draft predictions.

If you’re interested in doing the same thing, you can use our printable NFL mock draft template to fill out your own.

2024 NFL Draft Predictions

Let’s dive into the bets I have put together using my mock above! All bets are 1 unit unless I state otherwise.

  • Dallas Turner’s draft position under 9.5 (+145 bet365)

Most sportsbooks still have Dallas Turner as the favorite to be the first defensive player selected. However, you can find his draft position over/under listed at 9.5 with the over favored at most books. Most are not giving the under +145 odds, though.

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When I look at the teams selecting in the top nine picks, I see three who have a pretty big need for an edge rusher: Tennessee (7th), Atlanta (8th), and Chicago (9th). Though I think the Titans will address their offensive line (with Joe Alt), I fully expect the Falcons to take a defensive lineman, either an edge rusher or interior lineman. I also think there’s a really good chance Chicago follows suit with the next pick. I do not think there’s a 48% chance both teams pass on Turner.

  • Over 6.5 WRs drafted in the first round (+300 DraftKings) – 0.25 units

I think just about everyone would agree there are three wide receivers who will undoubtedly be picked in the first round on Thursday night. Those three are: Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. The odds also favor Brian Thomas Jr, Xavier Worthy, and Adonai Mitchell being first-round picks as well. But then you also have Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, and even Keon Coleman, who are projected to be early second-round picks.

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I think there’s a better than 25% chance that one of those guys sneaks into the first round to make it seven receivers selected.

  • Rome Odunze’s draft position over 8.5 (+135 ESPN Bet)

Remember everything I said in my Dallas Turner pick? Barring a team trading up, I don’t see how Rome Odunze fits into the top eight picks. All we have heard is that the first three picks will be QBs and JJ McCarthy will also be selected early. Then the odds heavily favor MHJ being the first WR off the board and Malik Nabers being the second. So, that’s six picks already. Then you throw in Joe Alt to the Titans and have the Falcons in need of a pass-rusher.

I think the only way Odunze is drafted in the first eight picks is if someone trades up to get him or he’s the second WR off the board. If you do like Odunze to go this early, I think the better bet is to take him to be the second WR selected at +300 (DraftKings). I’ll be betting him to go over 8.5 at +135 odds, though.

  • JJ McCarthy to be the 3rd-overall pick (+400 ESPN Bet)

Depending on the NFL draft value chart you use, the Vikings 11th and 23rd-overall selections in the 2024 draft are either a little more or a little less valuable than the third-overall pick. I do not believe Minnesota gave up two second-round picks to acquire the 23rd-overall pick, a move which was made two days after Kirk Cousins left in free agency, simply because they like a player they expect to be there late in the first round. This was a move to go up and get their new QB. The Patriots, who currently hold the third-overall pick and have plenty of holes on their roster, would make for a great trade partner too.

I feel the two QBs that would best fit Kevin O’Connell’s system are Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy. Even if Jayden Daniels were to be in the board, I think the Vikings would go with either Maye or McCarthy over him. For all of those reasons, I love the +400 odds on McCarthy to go third-overall.

  • Byron Murphy II to be the 1st DL/EDGE drafted (+220 ESPN Bet)

This is an example of ESPN Bet having some contradicting odds. Their prop for first defensive player drafted has Byron Murphy II, Dallas Turner, and Laiatu Latu all listed as co-favorites at +175 odds. But then if you go down to their first defensive lineman / edge rusher drafted prop, we see Turner at +130, Latu at +150, and Murphy at +220. Murphy’s odds to be the first DL/EDGE selected should not be worse, let alone significantly worse, than his odds to be the first defensive player drafted.

Just about every other sportsbook has Murphy between +160 and +175 to be the first DL/EDGE player drafted. So, I’m mostly looking at this as some positive EV. However, I think there’s a really good chance we see Murphy & Turner go 8th and 9th, respectively.

If you wanted to search for more bets on your own, you can see many more props at our NFL Draft betting odds page.

Then I also want to communicate bets that I already placed (over the past couple of months) where the odds have changed now:

  1. Taliese Fuaga’s draft position under 13.5 (-110 DraftKings)
  2. Malik Nabers to be first WR drafted (+400 bet365) – 0.5 units
  3. Malik Nabers to be first non-QB selected (+500 bet365) – 0.25 units
  4. Joe Alt’s draft position under 6.5 (+200 ESPN Bet) – 0.5 units
  5. Jonathon Brooks to be the first RB drafted (+250 ESPN Bet)
  6. Jayden Daniels to be the second-overall pick (-120 ESPN Bet)

Nabers to be the first non-QB selected has moved in the wrong direction for me, as it can be found as long as +800 at bet365 now, or +700 at DraftKings if you’re not in a legal bet365 state. At the time of placing the bet, Nabers was receiving more hype, but I do still think it’s worth a quarter of a unit at +800.

All the others have moved in the right direction, but the NFL Draft isn’t exactly the time to celebrate closing line value, nor have we reached the closing lines either. There will still be plenty of movement between now and tomorrow night.

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