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5 Smartest Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets: Take Advantage of Low Expectations for Gurley

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Mar 2, 2021 · 2:52 PM PST

Super Bowl LV, Tampa Bay
A passenger rides an escalator at Tampa International Airport Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. They city will host the Super Bowl 55 NFL football game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, Feb. 7. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Online sports betting sites have released hundreds of props for Super Bowl 53 on Sunday, February 3rd
  • Feeling overwhelmed by all the options? Unsure of which ones to bet?
  • See the five best Super Bowl props to bet in 2019

Betting the coin toss and what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach can be fun. But they’re best left for your fun printable Super Bowl party props sheet.

If you’re looking for the props that will give you the best opportunity to maximize your profit come Super Bowl 53, scheduled for Sunday, February 3rd, look no further.

I’ve balanced probability with potential payout to present you with the five best Super Bowl 53 props to bet.

1) Todd Gurley Rushing Yards

Todd Gurley Rushing Yards Odds
OVER 66.5 +115
UNDER 66.5 -145

*All odds taken 2/1; find this under Super Bowl 2019 Odds -> Running Back Props

Getting +115 odds for Todd Gurley, one of the best running backs in the league, to rush for 67+ yards against the Patriots, a defense that allowed the fourth-most yards per carry this season, is an absolute steal.

For reference, other sportsbooks have his rushing total set at 70.5 for the Super Bowl, with -110 odds on the OVER.

Gurley averaged 89.4 rushing yards per game in the regular season and did go for 115 on just 16 carries against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round.

I expect CJ Anderson to still get some carries on Sunday, but Gurley will return to lead-back duties. Sean McVay is going to pound this ball down the Patriots’ throat, not allowing them to get too exotic with their line stunts and blitzes.

Gurley easily surpasses 66.5 rushing yards.

2) Highest Scoring Quarter

Highest Scoring Quarter Odds at Sportsbook A Odds at Sportsbook B
1st +500 +425
2nd +145 +175
3rd +350 +425
4th +220 +180

By now, you’ve all heard the stat that the Patriots have only scored a total of 3 points in the first quarters of their eight previous Super Bowl appearances – all with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

So don’t go chasing big money here on the 1st quarter. Neither of these two teams averages more than 6.1 points in the first quarter this season.

The same goes for the 3rd quarter. The Rams average more points than any other team in the league during 3rd quarters this season, but it’s still just 7.8.

Both the Rams and Patriots averaged more than 10 points in the 2nd quarter this season, though. Thanks to reliable kickers and supreme clock management, both ranked in the top three of the NFL in 2nd quarter scoring.

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But with both teams so great at working the clock, I’m actually going to split a unit on the 2nd and 4th quarter. I’m expecting a tight game that comes right down to the last possession.

And with very creative offensive-minded coaches on each side, we could see an extremely explosive 4th quarter when either side gets desperate.

3) Both Teams to Score a Field Goal

Will both teams score a field goal? Odds
Yes -220
No +180

This wager isn’t going to net you a great return, but it is as close to a sure bet as you’ll get (with decent odds).

Stephen Gostkowski is 30/35 on field goal attempts this season, including the playoffs, hitting at least one in every game.

Greg Zuerlein is 34/39 on field goal attempts in just 13 games, two of which came in the playoffs, and has also nailed at least one in every game, only hitting less than two once.

As I said above, both teams are great at managing the clock before halftime. I expect a field goal before we get to see Maroon 5’s Halftime Show, and there will surely be at least one more from each side throughout the rest of the game with two accurate, strong-legged kickers.

If you were lucky enough to find this prop earlier in the week, YES was originally listed at -170.

4) Super Bowl MVP

Player Odds to win Super Bowl MVP Sportsbook A Odds to win SB MVP Sportsbook B
Tom Brady +140 +140
Jared Goff +250 +250
Todd Gurley +900 +1200
Sony Michel +1200 +1200
CJ Anderson +1800 +2200

Quarterbacks have won 29 of the 53 Super Bowl MVPs – the Super Bowl 12 MVP was shared between two defensive players – and nine of the last 12.

Aaron Donald has the talent to put his stamp on this game, but there’s no way the greatest coach of all-time in Bill Belichick is going to let that happen. The likely 2018 Defensive Player of the Year will see double-teams all game.

Both of these offenses can attack in so many ways, with so many different players. And with such good defensive coaches present in Brian Flores/Bill Belichick and Wade Phillips, I just can’t see them allowing one running back or one receiver to continue hurting them all game long. They will adjust.

It is going to be a QB who wins it again in 2019. And with both offered at plus-odds, a wager on both would net a profit so long as one of them wins it.

If you’d like the bigger payday, just take the QB of the team you believe wins on Sunday.

5) Number of Trump Tweets on Super Bowl Sunday

Total Donald Trump Tweets on February 3rd Odds
OVER 6 -140
UNDER 6 +100

I know … this takes us way away from football. But there is a great opportunity to make money here.

Last year, Donald Trump only tweeted twice on Super Bowl Sunday (February 4th, 2018). One of those tweets was to send his thoughts and prayers to the victims of a terrible train collision in South Carolina, while the other was to congratulate the Eagles on their victory.

In 2017, he tweeted five times on Super Bowl Sunday (February 5th, 2017). Two of them had to do with the Super Bowl, one was to promote his interview airing before the big game, and the other two were political.

He’s been tweeting a little more lately than in the days leading up to the last two Super Bowls, but there is certainly a trend of Trump going quiet on Super Bowl Sunday. And at +100 odds, the UNDER is a great bet here.

Our Super Bowl 53 Props Coverage:

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