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Will Adrian Peterson Make an Impact in Washington? Props and Projections

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Aug 20, 2018 · 5:24 PM PDT

Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is hoping to resurrect his career in Washington. Photo by Arvee5.0 [CC License].
  • Adrian Peterson has signed a one-year deal with the Redskins
  • How much does the 2012 MVP have left in the tank?
  • What are the odds AP will play a big role in Washington?

It used to be one of the cool catch phrases in the mid-2010s: AP All-Day.

When you heard a Vikings fan scream it, or someone who owned Adrian Peterson in fantasy football, it simply meant Peterson had run all over someone’s world, and there was nothing anyone could do about it.

In a cruel twist of fate, that same phrase has, for the last two or three seasons, stood for his availability.

But as of today, a glimmer of hope was given to the seven-time All-Pro selection and 2012 MVP, as he’ll get a chance to show that he’s still got it, in what will be his 12th NFL season.

Washington just lost prized rookie Derrius Guice for the year with an ACL injury, while injuries to both Samaje Perine and Byron Marshall left only Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson as regular backs. (Thompson is himself coming off a broken leg.) Their depth chart is in shambles.

Does Peterson still qualify as a star back that needs an opportunity, or is it more likely that the 33-year-old is in staring down a massively steep decline that no one wants to admit yet?

Adrian Peterson Stats: 2016-Present

Year Team Attempts Yards Average Touchdowns
2017 Cardinals 129 448 3.5 2
2017 Saints 27 81 3.0 0
2016* Vikings 37 72 1.9 0
2015 Vikings 327 1,485 4.5 11

*Suspended

It’s hard to say. In his last full season of football, Peterson was typical AP and led the league in rushing. His next season was marred by suspension, and then last year, he looked lost in New Orleans, who subsequently cut him before he resurfaced in Arizona. And he had himself a debut.

We’ll see soon enough which AP Washington gets, but it’s never too early to dish some tasty props:

Adrian Peterson 2018 Props

How Many Yards will AP Rush for with Washington?

Prop Over/Under
O/U rushing yards for Adrian Peterson in 2018 525.5

If Peterson wilds out the first few weeks, then it’s likely that the position is his for the season and this over/under looks foolish. Washington’s schedule goes: Cardinals, Colts, Packers, Bye, and Saints.

That’s two revenge games and a cream puff in Indy. The potential is there.

Will AP Serve as a Goal Line Back?

Prop Over/Under
O/U rushing touchdowns for Adrian Peterson in 2018 3.5

Perhaps find a side bet that he’ll hit 100 career TDs. That seems more likely. He’s had just two TD’s in his last 10 starts. And those came in one game.

I know that Kelley, Perine, and Thompson couldn’t carry Peterson’s bags in AP’s apex, but the NFL moves fast and it’s a young man’s game. I just see them being more prominent.

Check the previous five to AP’s 2012 rushing title year: Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Jamal Charles, Doug Martin, and Arian Foster. Not one of those guys classifies as a go-to back in 2018. Three are out of football.

Will AP at least be Efficient when Carrying the Ball?

Prop Over/Under
O/U yards per carry for Adrian Peterson in 2018 3.3

Forget about the stats, his new teammates are excited! Obviously they don’t believe in regression.

Is this Peterson’s Final Stop in the NFL?

Prop Odds
Odds Adrian Peterson retires following the 2018 NFL season 2/5

Here’s the biggie: he’s just 724 yards shy of eclipsing 13k for his career, an elite group that only eight other men in football have ever eclipsed.

If you’re an AP believer, then you know he signed in DC with the belief that he was competing for a starter’s job. All he needs to do is perform at a high level. If he does that and stays healthy all year, he would need to average a little over 45 yards a game to top that mark.

While I would love to see it (retro is cool), he’s had 193 carries in two years and that has topped out at 601 yards. I think it’s a harsh reality, but another sub-par year forces Peterson to take a look in the mirror, thus sealing one of the greatest careers in NFL history.

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