Best Dolphins vs Bills Same-Game Parlay for Wild Card Playoffs
- Check out our +300 Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay for Super Wild Card Weekend
- Will Buffalo cover 6.5-points in the first half? Can Josh Allen throw for at least 2 TD?
- Don’t miss our Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay picks below for this AFC Wild Card Playoff Game
The Dolphins and Bills will meet for a third time this season on Sunday as part of Super Wild Card Weekend. The AFC East rivals produced two thrilling games during the regular season, but this contest is shaping up to be a blowout. Read on for some info on a Dolphins vs Bills Same-Game Parlay.
That’s the way the majority of bettors are treating it according to the Dolphins vs Bills public betting trends, and it’s not hard to see why.
Miami’s season is now in the hands of rookie QB Skylar Thompson, and to say he doesn’t appear ready for the moment would be a massive understatement.
As a result, we’re expecting plenty of early possessions for Buffalo which they hopefully convert into points for our Dolphins vs Bills’ same-game parlay.
Dolphins vs Bills Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills -6.5 1st Half | -150 |
| Buffalo Bills Over 13.5 1st Half Points | -155 |
| Josh Allen 2+ TD Passes | -170 |
| Josh Allen Under 64.5 Rushing Yards | -230 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +300 |
Odds as of January 13 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code where you can get up to a 100% profit boost on any SGP during Super Wild Card Weekend.
This Miami vs Buffalo SGP features four legs and pays out +300 odds if it hits. Our first two selections are correlated and are relying on the Bills to come out with their hair on fire.
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Buffalo Bills -6.5 and Over 13.5 1st Half Points
Hollywood couldn’t have written a better script for the Bills last week. Playing in their first game since the Damar Hamlin injury, Buffalo returned the opening kick 96 yards for a touchdown versus New England.
We’re not expecting another special teams TD in this game, but the Bills should maintain possession for the bulk of the opening 30 minutes.
For starters, their offense is a major mismatch for Miami. The Dolphins are the 25th-ranked pass defense per DVOA, while Buffalo is the league’s number two pass offense. The last time these two teams met, Josh Allen threw for 304 yards.
We’ve paid our dues, now it’s time to reap our destiny.
There’s only one thing left to do.@DDawkins66 | @Zippo pic.twitter.com/fTZLltKaaU
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 13, 2023
The Bills hung 32 points on Miami’s defense in that game, but the Dolphins were able to keep pace thanks to Tua Tagovailoa. Fast forward a month, and Tagovailoa headlines the inactives in the Dolphins vs Bills injury report, while backup Teddy Bridgewater is also not healthy enough to start.
That leaves only Thompson, who was been abysmal in limited playing time this year. He grades out worse than every other starter in the league per Pro Football Focus and had a pitiful 4.9 average yards per attempt last week versus the Jets.
Thompson ranked 26th among QBs in Week 18 in expected points per play, and dead last in success rate. The matchup is horrific for him as Buffalo ranks fourth in total defense per DVOA, sixth in pass rush productivity, and 10th in coverage.
Expect plenty of three-and-outs for this Miami offense just like last week, and for the Bills to dominate time of possession and the scoreboard.
Josh Allen 2+ Passing TD
Allen threw 4 TD versus the Dolphins in their last meeting and three more last week versus the Patriots. He’s tossed multiple scores in five of his past six starts and ranked second in TD passes during the regular season.
Per the Dolphins vs Bills picks, Allen has put up prolific postseason numbers in the past. He threw 9 TD passes in two playoff games in 2021 and has at least two touchdown passes in four of his past five playoff games.
Highest graded QB this season:
Josh Allen – 91.7 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WFRFROUDxj
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 12, 2023
We should expect more of the same against a Miami secondary that grades out 28th in coverage per Pro Football Focus. The Dolphins faced the second most pass attempts of any team this season, allowing the seventh most touchdown passes.
Josh Allen Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
My preference would be to target under 9.5 carries for Allen, but that bet is only available in the traditional Dolphins vs Bills player props market.
Josh Allen Rushing Stats Last 5 Games
| ATT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 16 | 0 |
| 6 | 41 | 1 |
| 10 | 77 | 0 |
| 10 | 47 | 1 |
| 8 | 20 | 0 |
Unless something goes horribly wrong today, Allen is not going to need his legs much to ensure a Buffalo victory. The Bills are currently 13.5 point favorites and should be able to salt away this contest by leaning on their running backs. No need to risk injury or an unnecessary hit to Allen, the heart and soul of the team.
Allen eclipsed 64.5 rushing yards only five times all year, and each instance the game was decided by one score. We’re expecting a convincing Buffalo win, allowing Allen to save his legs for the Divisional Round.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
