Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Predictions and Picks for Wild Card Weekend
- The Buffalo Bills are hefty 13.5-point home favorites when they host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC Wild Card playoff game
- Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) will miss the game and heavily impacts the Dolphins vs picks
- See the Dolphins vs Bills odds for this Wild Card playoff clash, and our betting prediction below
The most serious injury the NFL saw this season seems to be under control, leaving the Buffalo Bills (13-3, 7-1 home) able to simply focus on football and focus on winning their Wild Card matchup with Miami as heavy favorites in the Dolphins vs Bills odds.
A series of injuries to the Miami Dolphins (9-8, 3-6 away), will make it difficult to compete when they hit the playoff stage for the first time since 2016.
AFC East rivals clash on Wild Card Weekend, as the Dolphins travel to Orchard Park to take on the Bills.
Buffalo ended the year on a 7-0 run to lock up the second seed in the AFC. Miami, on the other hand, staggered down the home stretch, dropping five straight before beating the New York Jets 11-6 in Week 18 to clinch a playoff spot.
They’re also a mess at the QB position. Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has already been ruled out, while backup Teddy Bridgewater (finger) is questionable, leaving the Fins to prep third-string rookie Skylar Thompson at pivot.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +625 | +13.5 (-110) | Ov 43.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -900 | -13.5 (-110) | Un 43.5 (-110) |
Odds as of January 14 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Dolphins vs Bills.
The injury woes are a big reason why the Dolphins are massive 13.5-point underdogs in the Wild Card odds, in a game that features a total of 43.5.
According to the latest NFL Betting Trends, over 75% of the public is backing the Bills to cover and a whopping 91% of bettors are taking them to win outright.
Dolphins vs Bills Game Info
It all gets underway Sunday (Jan 15) at 1pm ET from Highmark Stadium. It’s expected to be sunny with cloudy periods, but it will be a chilly 28 degrees at kickoff.
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Miami Betting Analysis
As if injuries to the pivot aren’t enough, the Dolphins will also be without running back Raheem Mostert (thumb).
The offensive line is limping into Wild Card Weekend too. Terron Armstead (toe/pec/knee/hip), Kendall Lamb (ankle) and Brandon Shell (knee/ankle) all did not practice and are questionable, while Liam Eichenberg (hand) is doubtful.
Receiver Jaylen Waddle has an ankle injury, but should be a go, though Cedrick Wilson (hip/groin) is also questionable. Defensively, linebacker Bradley Chubb (ankle/hand) is questionable.
Skylar Thompson gets flushed out and he somehow finds Tyreek for the first down. Wow. pic.twitter.com/oi1cArvtc4
— FinCuts (@FinCuts) January 8, 2023
Thompson is coming off a playoff-clinching win last week against the Jets, but he was limited, going 20-for-31 for 152 yards. On the year, he’s made seven appearances and completed just 57.1% of his passes.
This isn’t the world-beating Bills’ defense we saw in the first half of the year, but they also give up the 2nd-fewest points per game (17.9) and sixth-fewest yards per game. Thompson will be in tough generating offense.
Defensively, Miami is stout against the run, giving up just 103 yards per game (4th), but they are a bottom-5 pass D, surrendering 234.8 yards per contest. That might be a problem contending with the 2nd-best scoring offense in the NFL when it comes to anyone picking an upset in the Dolphins vs Bills predictions.
Buffalo Betting Analysis
The scariest part of the Damar Hamlin cardiac arrest is now in the rearview. The young Bills’ safety is back in Buffalo recovering. And while you can’t measure this in any stat, the Bills should carry that relief into their playoff run.
It also helps that you’ve got one of the top candidates in the 2023 NFL MVP odds in Josh Allen at quarterback. Allen closed out the year with a 19-for-31 effort, throwing for 254 yards and three touchdowns against one interception in a 35-23 win over the Patriots.
JOSH ALLEN TO STEFON DIGGS 🚀
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/7U0jRciM2j
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 8, 2023
Buffalo has actually pumped out 30+ points in each of their last three games, including a 32-29 win over these same Dolphins in Week 16. Allen threw for 304 yards and four TD’s, in a cold, snowy game in upstate New York.
Even in their 21-19 loss in Miami in Week 3 — a game many Buffalo players suffered various levels of heat stroke and dehydration — Allen still threw for 400 yards and a pair of scores.
Buffalo’s injury list is slight, with only receiver Isaiah McKenzie (hamstring) questionable on offense. On defense, S Jordan Poyer (neck) is out and DL Jordan Phillips (shoulder) is questionable.
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Dolphins vs Bills Picks
Miami might be 7-0 against the spread after scoring less than 15 points the previous game, but throw that stat out the window.
With Tua under center, this is an intriguing matchup, as he can unlock the lethal Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle receiving duo. Without him, the Dolphins are overmatched and won’t be pulling an upset in our Dolphins vs Bills prediction.
Buffalo didn’t have what you could describe as a dominant season, though they did lose three games by just eight points. If the defense can force Miami to turn it over — they forced at least two turnovers in 10 games this year — this one can get away even earlier.
This Bills team was 3-4-0 ATS at home overall, and also as the home favorite, but with the stakes this high, this one won’t be close and the Bills will cover the spread in the Dolphins vs Bills odds.
Dolphins vs Bills Picks:
- Bills -13.5 (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
- Regular Season: 9-9 ATS, 1-1 ML; 1-1 O/U, -5.1 units
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
