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Best Vikings vs Rams Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 8

Ian Jones

By Ian Jones in NFL Football

Published:


Sep 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates his touchdown against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
  • The Minnesota Vikings visit the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium tonight on Thursday Night Football
  • Vikings’ WR Justin Jefferson features in two legs of tonight’s TNF same-game parlay
  • Below, see all four legs of a +550 Vikings vs Rams SGP for Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football is going back to Cali this week, with the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams squaring off tonight at SoFi Stadium in LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. The Vikings will be looking to rebound after a heartbreaking OT loss, while the return of a key receiver will have the Rams gunning for a second-straight win. That’s why tonight’s SGP is expecting lots of offense and opens with a first-half over bet.

Vikings vs Rams Same-Game Parlay Picks

Pick Odds
First-Half Total Over 23.5 Points -112
Justin Jefferson 70+ Alt Receiving Yards -205
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD Scorer -115
Kyren Williams Under 72.5 Rushing Yards -115
TOTAL MIN vs LAR SGP ODDS +550
DRAFTKINGS
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Last week’s Broncos vs Saints SGP was a longshot, but definitely an achievable one, once Davonte Williams scored his first touchdown. Denver kept scoring and everything was going great! However, the downside to Denver building a big lead meant they were content to kill the clock in the second half. Once Bo Nix stopped throwing the ball, our passing yards leg was toast. The Saints scoring a garbage time TD to ruin the under just added insult to injury.

That’s why I’m going a little bit safer with this week’s NFL same-game parlay; although there’s an extra leg included, each one has an implied probability of 52.8% or better.

I’m banking on the Vikings to build an early lead and the Rams going to the air to keep up. This will result in a Week 8 Thursday Night Football SGP that adds up to +550, where a $100 bet would net a profit of $550, but only if all four legs hit.

Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 2-4, +12.33 units

Vikings vs Rams Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: First-Half Total Over 23.5 Points

My rationale for the first-half total going over 23.5 points is fairly straightforward: lately, both teams keep putting up lots of points in the first half.

Over the past three games, the Vikings and Rams are averaging a combined 29.3 first half points, compared to a full season average of 23.7.

Admittedly, Minnesota owns the bulk of that three-game total, compiling an average of 18.3 against the likes of Detroit, the NY Jets, and Green Bay. In contrast, LA is contributing just 11.0, achieved against Las Vegas, Green Bay and Chicago. In other words, the Rams will need to put up points to get the leg to 24.

But how? In 2024, the Rams have scored more touchdowns on the ground (8) than in the air (3). That bodes well until you realize the Vikings boast one of the best rushing defenses in the league, conceding only 480 yards and 3 touchdowns in six games this season.

However, a career’s worth of evidence suggests Matthew Stafford is not afraid to throw the ball, and this Thursday will mark the return of one of his favorite targets, Cooper Kupp.

Not only has Kupp recorded 29 TDs and nearly 3,600 yards when playing with Stafford, but in those 38 games Stafford has thrown for a total of over 10,000 yards and 71 TDs. That’s not just a lot of balls thrown to Kupp; that’s a lot of balls thrown to everybody.

Stands to reason that Stafford and the Rams will keep up with Minnesota and put somebody in the end zone in the first half.

Vikings vs Rams Same-Game Parlay Pick #2 & #3: Justin Jefferson 70+ Alt Receiving Yards & Anytime TD

This leg of the parlay turned into a nice little “two-fer” because of how electric Justin Jefferson has been. It’s hard to argue against him when he’s put up 88.5 Receiving YPG and five touchdowns in just six games.

At the moment, Jefferson’s Rec Yards O/U for tonight is 84.5 and, if I’m being honest, I feel like there’s better value in giving myself a little yardage leeway. In three of five games this season where Jefferson has gone over 80 yards, he’s only barely done so.

I’m not saying Jefferson won’t hit 80 yards on TNF. Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me if he broke 110. But that 84.5 O/U looks far too tight compared to the numbers he’s put up this year. That’s why I’m giving myself some wiggle room on this leg of the SGP.

As for the “Jefferson Anytime TD” leg, he already has five TDs, has 28 more targets than any other Viking and 13 more receptions. Sam Darnold will be putting the ball in his hands all night; you could argue he’s more likely to not score tonight.

Vikings vs Rams Same-Game Parlay Pick #4: Kyren Williams Under 73.5 Rushing Yards

I won’t deny that Kyren Williams is having a fantastic season so far, particularly after averaging 90.25 rushing yards and six TDs in his last four games.

He’s been clutch since Kupp went down in Week 2, but will things change when they’re both on the field Thursday night? I believe so.

In 2023, Williams averaged 112.38 rushing YPG when he and Kupp were playing. Having both players available will allow the Rams’ offense to toy with opposing defenses more than they have this season.

However, that average was compiled entirely against bad rushing defenses! Not once did Williams face an elite rushing defense in 2023 when Kupp was also available; his best was the 88 yards he put up against Cleveland’s 11th-ranked rush defense.

Instead, Williams will be facing the Vikings’ aforementioned second-best rush defense, one that will be very angry after giving up 144 yards to Detroit last week.

If the Rams end up playing catch-up on the scoreboard, they’ll take to the air early to keep the clock from running down. That means less handoffs for Williams. It tracks that his rushing yard total will suffer for it.

Ian Jones
Ian Jones

MLB, NFL & MLS Writer

With a background in content marketing, literature, and design, Ian has been bringing a little bit of everything to SBD since 2021. In addition to having penned articles for Eighty-Six Forever, Ian can and will talk your ear off over almost any sport you can think of.

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