Brian Robinson Jr Now Favored to Win NFL CPOY – Rookie Is Off Crutches After Shooting
- Brian Robinson Jr is the new favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year with +400 odds
- The Commanders rookie RB is recovering from injuries he sustained after being shot during a robbery
- Read below for an analysis on whether or not Robinson Jr is a good value to win this award
Brian Robinson Jr was one of the biggest stories in Commanders training camp this year. He rose rapidly up the depth charts and was set to overtake Antonio Gibson as Washington’s primary running back to start the season.
Then, disaster struck as Robinson Jr was seriously injured after being shot in the leg during a robbery. Luckily for him, he escaped serious damage and the news keeps getting better. Just days after surgery Robinson Jr is off crutches and there’s already talk of him returning as early as Week 5.
Oddsmakers have taken notice of this incredible story, and have vaulted Robinson Jr all the way up to the top of the board to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) | +400 |
| Derrick Henry (TEN) | +450 |
| Jameis Winston (NO) | +550 |
| Christian McCaffrey (CAR) | +900 |
| Baker Mayfield (CAR) | +1000 |
| Michael Thomas (NO) | +1200 |
| Saquon Barkley (NYG) | +1600 |
| Allen Robinson (LAR) | +1800 |
| Cam Akers (LAR) | +2000 |
| J.K. Dobbins (BAL) | +2000 |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | +2000 |
| Marcus Mariota (ATL) | +2000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | +2000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky (PIT) | +2000 |
| Khalil Mack (LAC) | +2500 |
| Chase Young (WAS) | +2500 |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | +3000 |
| Robert Woods (TEN) | +3000 |
| D.J. Chark (DET) | +3300 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | +3300 |
| Danielle Hunter (MIN) | +4000 |
| Drew Lock (SEA) | +4000 |
Odds as of September 7th at Barstool Sportsbook
Robinson Jr’s +400 price tag in the CPOY odds, is just slightly shorter than that of two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry. In addition to King Henry, there are plenty of megastars on this list including Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas among others.
As for Robinson Jr, how could you not root for this guy? He was likely inches away from a life-threatening injury and now he could be back scoring touchdowns just a short time later. However, that doesn’t mean we should be betting him to win this award.
Fade the Top of the CPOY Board
For starters, just because there’s optimism for his return doesn’t mean he won’t suffer a setback. At +400, it doesn’t really feel like that’s baked into his price.
Brian Robinson Jr. is off of crutches as he continues his recovery🙌
More from Ron Rivera🔽 pic.twitter.com/YmrmYyeLFt
— NBC Sports Commanders (@NBCSCommanders) September 7, 2022
Secondly, he may have been in line for the bulk of the carries prior to the incident, but there’s no guarantee Antonio Gibson won’t take his second chance and run with it. He may have had a down 2021 season, but he’s a serious talent.
Gibson scored 11 touchdowns as a rookie in 2020, after a senior year in college where he scored 12 times. As a former wide receiver, he’s an excellent pass catching option as well. Unless he struggles badly, he could be tough to overtake.
Antonio Gibson: "I still feel like I’m one of the best running backs in the league and I got something to prove."
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 7, 2022
Even if Robinson Jr comes back and earns reps it will strictly be in a two-down role. JD McKissic is one the of most reliable third-down backs in the NFL, and one the Commanders recently overpaid to keep.
The bottom line is that there are too many variables for Robinson Jr to overcome. If the CPOY award was just awarded to the best story he’d win hands down. Unfortunately, his on-field performance will be taken into account as well.
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CPOY Longshots to Consider
Let’s not overthink this category. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the most versatile offensive player in the league. He’s the number one draft pick in your fantasy pool for a reason, and after back-to-back injury-riddled seasons, McCaffrey is ready to reassume his role as this generation’s Marshall Faulk.
Christian McCaffrey is projected to score the most fantasy points in Week 1 👀 pic.twitter.com/Y1aFjiUKca
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) September 7, 2022
In his last full season in 2019, McCaffrey was a top-three MVP candidate averaging 150 total yards per game. We’ve already seen what he’s capable of and the talent cupboard is pretty bare in Carolina aside from him and DJ Moore. His +900 price tag is a phenomenal value.
A little further down the board, we find JuJu Smith-Schuster. A fresh start with one of the most talented quarterbacks ever in Kansas City will do wonders to revive his career.
#Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster on what he needs to prove in 2022: "That I've still got it. . . I came here to win a Super Bowl."
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) September 7, 2022
Smith-Schuster can win both inside and out and will be Patrick Mahomes’ number one target. Tyreek Hill left behind 159 targets, 11 catches and 9 TDs from a season ago, and JuJu should absorb the bulk of that volume.
Don’t forget, it was just a few years ago that he was considered the number one overall player in dynasty football formats. His +2000 odds are definitely worth a sprinkle.
Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster (+2000)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
