Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Lines and Picks

• The Chiefs are 9-point home favorites over the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 9
• KC ranks top-five in scoring defense and yards allowed per game
• Check out the latest Buccaneers vs Chiefs prediction, betting lines and picks for MNF

The Kansas City Chiefs’ (7-0) bid for a perfect season continues on Monday Night Football as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4). KC is last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, and entered Week 9 as one of only two squads with fewer than two losses on its resume.

Online sportsbooks are expecting Patrick Mahomes and company to remain perfect following this contest, as they’ve pegged the Chiefs as massive chalk in the latest NFL odds.

Kickoff for this Super Bowl 55 rematch is set for 8:15 pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City, MO, with ESPN and ABC providing the coverage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Kansas City is currently favored by nine points in a game with a total of 46. The Chiefs opened at -9.5, and dropped to as low as 8-point favorites earlier in the week before getting bet back up. As it currently stands, the spread betting action is pretty evenly split, with Tampa drawing slightly more tickets and handle.

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Total-wise, the over/under opened at 44.5, but that number didn’t last long. It was quickly bet up to 45.5 and now sits at 46 per the NFL public betting percentages: 87% of the bets and 92% of all total money is on the over, which is not something we agree with (more on that later).

Chiefs Defense Stealing the Show

The Chiefs will be searching for a franchise record 14th straight victory when they face the Bucs, a winning streak that dates back to last Christmas. The stretch includes a Super Bowl triumph, plus multiple wins over the 49ers and Ravens, in addition to a road victory at the Bills.

They’re the Super Bowl odds favorite yet again, but it’s not their offense that has been leading the way. In fact, Mahomes is on pace for the worst statistical season of his career. He’s thrown more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8), leading the league in picks alongside Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love.

Most Interceptions Entering Week 9

Mahomes’ .119 expected points added per play is nearly three times lower than Jaydon Daniels and Josh Allen, and he’s averaging fewer air yards per attempt (5.9) than any other quarterback with at least 144 snaps.

But here’s the thing, it doesn’t matter. It also doesn’t matter that they’ve lost their number one receiver and number one running back. They continue to find ways to win regardless of who’s on the field. The bulk of their games have been tighter than you might expect, but whenever they need a big play or a pivotal conversion, Mahomes conjures up some magic and gets it done.

Of course it also doesn’t hurt that their defense is elite. KC ranks top-five in both scoring defense and yards allowed, and has held their last six opponents to 20 points or less. Once considered vulnerable against the run, the Chiefs are allowing just over 80 rushing yards per game, which ranks second league-wide. They’re also generating a ton of pressure, ranking fourth in pass rush productivity, and just strengthened that area by adding Joshua Uche from the Pats.

The Chiefs defense might quietly be one of the best units the NFL has ever seen.

Don't believe me?

If the Chiefs hold the Bucs to under 28 points next week, they will tie to 05-07 Ravens (considered one of the best defenses of all-time) with 29 straight games under 28 points.

— Josh Chavis (@JoshChavis65) October 28, 2024

That spells trouble for Mayfield and the Bucs, who come hobbling into Arrowhead. Star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, while number three receiver Jalen McMillan and emerging running back Bucky Irving are banged up. Tampa Bay has dropped both games since Evans went down, while four of Mayfield’s nine interceptions have come in the last two contests.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction

Offense will be tough to come by for the Bucs against this ferocious Chiefs defense. On the other side of the ball, KC should find success, but their lack of efficiency is going to prevent them from striking quickly. The Chiefs are perfectly content to grind out long drives by feeding Kareem Hunt the ball, bleeding the clock dry. KC is top-10 in rushing play percentage, running the ball at a 50% clip over the last three games.

The personnel and the Chiefs style of play backs a low-scoring game, as do the trends. The under is 17-5 in KC home games since 2022, failing to clear the total by an average of six points per matchup.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Pick: Under 46 (-110) at BetMGM