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Chiefs’ Odds to Win 2021 Super Bowl Were Once +650 – See How Kansas City’s Odds Changed Throughout the Season

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Jan 25, 2021 · 8:48 AM PST

Super Bowl 55
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates as time winds down in their victory over the Buffalo Bills in the NFL AFC championship football game, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have enjoyed a steady climb in the NFL futures since claiming victory in Super Bowl 54
  • The Chiefs opened as +650 favorites to repeat as champions, and now look to their Super Bowl 55 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as lofty -179 chalk
  • We’ve got you covered with a look back at how the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds have evolved over the past year

The Kansas City Chiefs rose to the occasion in Sunday’s AFC championship game, outpacing the Buffalo Bills to claim a decisive 38-24 victory, and now prepare to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as heavy -179 favorites in Super Bowl odds.

The Chiefs have been perched atop the NFL futures since claiming their first Super Bowl title in 50 years last spring. However, the season has not been without its bumps in the road for the defending champions. Here’s a look at some of the key milestones during the Chiefs season, and how Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds have evolved since the team raised the hardware a year ago.

Chiefs Open at the Top of the Super Bowl Odds

In the hours following last year’s Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers, the Chiefs opened as clear +650 favorites to repeat. Kansas City maintained that perch throughout the year but found themselves in a neck-and-neck battle early on with the Baltimore Ravens, who opened as +750 second favorites following an impressive 14-2 SU campaign.

Thornhill, Okafor Spend Offseason on the Mend

Two key members of the Chiefs defense entered the offseason on the mend. Defensive end Okafor needed most of the offseason to recover from a pectoral muscle injury suffered late in 2019 while promising young safety Juan Thornhill closed out his first NFL season on the mend with a torn ACL.

With both players returning to form in time for the new season, their offseason injuries had no impact on the team’s Super Bowl odds

Chiefs Sign Demarcus Robinson, Slap Franchise Tag on Chris Jones

The Chiefs capped a productive offseason focused on bringing back key personnel from last year’s championship squad by signing receiver Demarcus Robinson to a one-year deal, and slapping the franchise tag on DT Chris Jones.

Robinson’s signing ensured that the team’s top four receivers from 2019 returned, providing the team with options on draft day.

Mired in stalled contract talks, the franchise tag ensured that Jones would at least start the season in Kansas City after racking up a combined 24.5 sacks over the previous two seasons. The moves cemented the Chiefs’ position as +500 Super Bowl chalk ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Chiefs Take Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 2020 NFL Draft

Kansas City made the best of the final selection in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, taking rusher Clyde Edwards-Helaire from the national champion LSU Tigers.

The Chiefs also added another key piece to the puzzle by taking LB Willie Gay in the second round. However, the moves failed to buoy the squad’s Super Bowl odds, which sank to their opening position at +650 in the days following the draft.

Duvernay-Tardif, Williams Opt-Out of 2020 Season

A pair of prominent Chiefs players elected to opt-out of the 2020 campaign in late July. On July 24, OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif elected to remain home in Quebec, where he spent much of the year caring for victims on COVID-19. He was later joined by veteran rusher Damien Williams and rookie tackle Lucas Niang.

Those decisions had little impact on the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds, which held steady around +600 throughout the summer, right up until the team’s season-opening clash with the Houston Texans.

Chiefs on the Rise Following Season-Opening Win

Kansas City picked up where it left off in Week 1, marching to a 34-20 victory over Houston as 9.5-point home chalk. The Chiefs quickly vaulted to +500 Super Bowl favorites following the win, sparking a steady improvement in the team’s odds to +350 during a 4-0 SU start to the schedule.

Week 5 Loss to Vegas Fails to Shake Sports Bettor Confidence

The Chiefs saw their speedy start halted by a 40-32 loss to the visiting Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5. The defeat snapped Kansas City’s 13-game SU win streak, and cut the team’s lead atop the AFC West over the resurgent Raiders to just one game. Despite the loss, the Chiefs remained steady as +400 chalk and saw their odds rebound to +350 following a crucial 26-17 win in Buffalo a week later.

The Chiefs’ first loss of the season also coincided with the loss of receiver Sammy Watkins to a hamstring injury that cost him five games, and the signing of free agent rusher Le’Veon Bell, who joined the team on October 15.

Epic Losing Streak at the Sportsbooks

While the Chiefs continued to rack up SU wins, the team emerged as a massive betting disappointment during the second half of the season.

Kansas City failed to record an ATS win in their final eight regular season contests. But while the squad piled up ATS losses, they continued to gain momentum in the NFL futures and closed out the regular season sporting short +200 Super Bowl odds.

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Chiefs Open Postseason Schedule Deadlocked with Packers

After enjoying a much needed bye on Wild Card Weekend, the Chiefs found themselves knotted with the Green Bay Packers as +220 co-favorites going into their Divisional Playoff clash with the Cleveland Browns.

Chiefs Kingdom held their breath after quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion in the team’s narrow 22-17 win over Cleveland. And with Mahomes’ status uncertain, Kansas City briefly fell behind the Packers as a +213 second favorite. However, the reigning Super Bowl MVP managed to make a quick recovery, returning to action in the team’s rout of the Bills on Sunday night.

The Chiefs must now face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on their home turf at Raymond James Stadium. But with the team coming out of Sunday’s game vs Buffalo largely injury-free, they enjoy their best Super Bowl odds of the season, climbing to -179 after opening at +175, while Tampa Bay lags at +178.

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