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Colts Have Easiest 2020 NFL Schedule, Falcons Have Hardest Based Off Advanced SOS Model

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Dec 20, 2022 · 9:30 AM PST

Atlanta Falcons mascot.
The Atlanta Falcons are facing the toughest schedule of any team in 2020. Photo by Shark96z (Wikimedia).
  • The Atlanta Falcons are facing the toughest schedule in 2020 and have a regular season win total of 7
  • The Falcons started their 2019 campaign 1-7 but finished 6-2 in their final eight games
  • The Indianapolis Colts have the easiest schedule in 2020 and could be a good bet for the “Over” after acquiring Philip Rivers

The Indianapolis Colts have the easiest schedule in 2020 while the Atlanta Falcons are facing the toughest. Given what we know about the teams and what’s in front of them, is it best to bet Over or Under their 2020 NFL win totals? Let’s take a closer look.

Indianapolis Colts 2020 Regular Season Win Total

Team Odds
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (O -160 / U +135)

Odds taken May 7

Can Colts Get Above .500?

The Colts finished 7-9 last season and are now facing a regular season win total of 8.5 in 2020. That means that if they can just get over .500 and finish the year with nine wins (assuming they don’t do something wonky like finish 8-7-1), they will hit the Over. The question is are they good enough to?

The first good omen is the fact that they’re facing the league’s easiest schedule. Facing teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars a couple of times will help while the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans are viewed as about on par with the Colts. There’s no real juggernaut or clear-cut front runner in this division.

The biggest change for the Colts this offseason was bringing in quarterback Philip Rivers, who should give the team a big upgrade at the quarterback position. There are varying opinions on Rivers but leaving him aside for a minute, it’s become clear that Jacoby Brissett is not the guy.

Brissett started the year with 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his first six games. He threw just four more touchdowns the rest of the season, which isn’t good enough. His passer rating decreased by the month, going from 102.1 in September to 95.2 in October to 80.5 in November to 74.5 in December.

Rivers was definitely turnover prone last season as a member of the Los Angeles Chargers but he’s gone from playing behind one of the league’s shakiest offensive lines to one of the better units. On top of that, the Colts have a better coach who can manage him and what should be a reliable running game – something he rarely had with the Chargers.

Also keep in mind that the Colts lost four games by four or less but had field goal kicking issues with Adam Vinatieri last season. On top of that, the team was ravaged by injuries from T.Y. Hilton missing five games to four other receivers and tight end Eric Ebron landing on injured reserve to the defense losing half of their starters to significant time.

If the Colts can protect Rivers, their running game improves and the team stays healthy, they’ll get back to nine wins or more – especially with this schedule.

Atlanta Falcons 2020 Regular Season Win Total

Team Odds
Atlanta Falcons 7.5 (O +100 / U -120)

Are Falcons a Good Under Bet?

The Falcons are facing a lower number than the Colts as they just need to hit eight to get “Over”. However, they are facing a much more challenging schedule.

The Falcons should get a couple of easy wins against the Carolina Panthers inside of the division but they will likely be underdogs or very small favorites (at home) in their four meetings with the New Orleans Saints and much-improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The rest of their schedule will obviously be difficult too.

The biggest issue with the Falcons is we don’t know what kind of team they are. Remember, they started 1-7 last season and head coach Dan Quinn was expected to be fired. Instead, he clung to his job and the team finished 6-2 down the stretch. Did they merely beat bad teams or was that a sign of a serious turnaround?

For the Falcons, everything starts with their offense and their ability to run the ball. When Julio Jones is the only credible weapon in the offense, this unit is easy to shut down. They were 30th in rushing yards per game in 2019 and 27th in 2018. In 2016, when they finished fifth in rushing the offense, the offense led the league in points per game.

Assuming they stay healthy, the Falcons offensive line should be sturdy but how much faith do you have in running backs Todd Gurley, Brian Hill and Ito Smith? As far as the passing game is concerned, is Calvin Ridley going to take a big leap forward in 2020? The team was hoping that would happen in 2019 but his numbers were almost the same as his rookie season.

And remember that this team doesn’t have many auxiliary weapons outside of that. Tight end Austin Hooper was third on the team in receptions with 75 but after that, Russell Gage was fourth on the team with 446 receiving yards. The team’s fourth (Devonta Freeman) and fifth leading receivers (Mohamed Sanu Sr.) are now gone.

What keyed the Falcons turnaround down the stretch was the play of the defense. Quinn gave up the play-calling duties and the unit that allowed 31.3 points per game in their first eight contests gave up just 18.6 over their final eight games.

The Falcons seemingly upgraded the unit with the likes of edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. and first-round pick A.J. Terrell. Safety Keanu Neal has suffered back-to-back season-ending injuries, so if he’s healthy, that’s another big “addition”.

Overall, this is about an 8-8 club in my view. If everything goes right, they could be 8-8 or 9-7. However, I see them as the third-best team in the NFC South and they have a very difficult schedule in front of them. I don’t love the Over or Under with this team, but if push came to shove, I’d go Under.

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