- Week 10’s SNF matchup sees the (6-3) Minnesota Vikings taking on the (5-3) Dallas Cowboys
- Will the Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde Dallas Cowboys bring their game for this pivotal NFC matchup?
- Last week all three props came through earning me +6.2 units cutting the season debt nearly in half down to -6.51 units
Well, the Patriots crumbled last Sunday night under the pressure of the first real game of football they have had to play this year, but I think we all know they will still have something to do with who reps the AFC in the Super Bowl. With the Patriots’ failings came some much needed winnings for myself, as a 3-0 week and +6.2 units was much needed.
Ready to keep the good fortunes rolling? Let’s take a look at three props that have caught my eye for Week 10’s SNF matchup between the Cowboys and Vikings.
Prop #1: Will There Be Overtime
All odds taken Nov. 9
These teams come about as evenly matched as their respective records would suggest. Each has shown enough talent to be considered Super Bowl contenders but each team has also lost to some real pretenders.
The Cowboys are coming off routes of the Giants and Eagles, which was preceded by a three-game losing streak that included losses to the 1-7 Jets and a Saints team being led by Teddy Bridgewater. Sure, Teddy has played well but if you get the Saints without Drew Brees that’s a win you have to get.
The Vikings headed into Week 9 rolling on the heels of a four game win streak. Matt Moore and the Chiefs put an abrupt end to that. Their previous loss came to a Chicago Bears team that was mostly led by backup Chase Daniels. So a few disappointing losses to say the least.
|3rd||Rush Yards per Game||4th|
|16th||Pass Yards per Game||4th|
|11th||Points Per Game||5th|
|8th||Total Yards Allowed per Game||6th|
|8th||Rush Yards Allowed per Game||10th|
|8th||Pass Yards Allowed per Game||7th|
|4th||Points Allowed per Game||5th|
Even with their inconsistencies in pulling out victories, both teams have been able to keep games close that they have lost. Dallas leads the NFL with a 4.67 average margin of loss while the Vikings are not far behind, tied for fifth at an even six points. That’s not the only thing the teams have in common, as both clubs are in the top half of the league in just about every statistical category that matters on both sides of the ball.
I like the chances of this being a close game and the odds for OT are just long enough.
Pick: Overtime Yes (+1082)
Risk: 1 unit to win 10.82 units
Prop #2: Margin of Victory
I just discussed how even these teams are but who comes out on top? Each of the Vikings and Cowboys’ six total losses have been by 10 points or less. Both teams are led by a solid ground game with the ability to put it in the air when needed. Each team owns a top-10 defense. Where can we get an edge?
The Vikings’ star receiver Adam Thielen has already been ruled out, and Minnesota’s secondary that can be had. The Cowboys hold an edge with a “healthy” arsenal on offense and a defense led by a solid D-line that knows how to get off the field. Dallas is allowing opponents a paltry 27.1% conversion rate, good for second in the league.
— DeMarcus Lawrence (@TankLawrence) November 8, 2019
The Cowboys are 3-1 at home while the Vikings sport a 2-3 road record. Dallas is putting up 31.8 points a game at home, while the Vikings have averaged 23 points per game in their five road contests. The Dallas defense surrenders 18.8 points per game in Dallas, while the Vikings’ stout defense gives up a not-so-stout 20.6 points per game on the road.
The Vikings rely on three key pieces of their offense for the majority of their offense and with one of those pieces missing it could be just enough to tip the scales in this matchup.
Pick: Cowboys 1-13 +148
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Prop #3: Amari Cooper Receiving Yards
Since being acquired by the Cowboys midway through the 2018 season Amari Cooper has played 10 home games and has balled out in Dallas. His averages of seven catches, 118.3 receiving yards and one touchdown inside Jerry’s World show the kind of star he has the talent to be. In six of the 10 home games he has played, Cooper has broken the 100-yard mark, topping out at 226 yards in Week 5 against the Packers.
The Vikings’ top three corners grade out terribly with Pro Football Focus. Mike Hughes has the best PFF ranking at 77th, followed by Trae Waynes at 98 and Xavier Rhodes at 107. They are certainly not the feared secondary of 2018 and have been taken advantage of on more then one occasion this year.
Vikings Road Woes versus Opposing Wide Receivers
|Week 9/@KC||Tyreek Hill/6-140-1|
|Week 7/@DET||Danny Amendola/8-105-0|
|Week 7/@DET||Marvin Jones/10-93-4|
|Week 2/@GB||Davonte Adams/7-106-0|
The Vikings’ secondary could be the unit that decides this game. If they play like it’s 2018 they may stroll out of Dallas with a win. Chances are the 2019 version shows up and Cooper continues his Arlington dominance and rolls a terrible Vikings corner group to another huge home game.
Pick: Cooper 101+ (+154)
Risk: 2 units to win 3.08 units
Let's have fun and keep it civil.