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Derrius Guice Becoming an Offensive Rookie of the Year Favorite

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 3:38 PM PDT

Derrius Guice answering questions at the NFL Scouting Combine
Should Derrius Guice be seen as a top contender to win 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
  • Derrius Guice fell to Washington at 59th-overall in the 2018 NFL Draft due to concerns over his maturity
  • The rookie opened at +1700 to win the 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award
  • See how much his odds have changed without even stepping on the field yet

Derrius Guice fell all the way to 59th in the 2018 NFL Draft, in spite of many scouts believing he was the second best running back available behind Saquon Barkley. His maturity and the way he handles his emotions became a concern right before the draft and were to blame for Guice’s free fall.

Now, just ahead of his NFL (preseason) debut, the rookie hasn’t just been winning over fans and teammates with his energy and performance in camp, but he’s also drawing some heavy praise from online sports betting sites.

When odds opened for the NFL’s 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year award on May 1st, Guice was seen as a bit of a longshot with average odds of +1700. He’s now tied for the third-shortest average odds at +820.

Average 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds to Win 2018 NFL OROY

Player Pos Team Odds to win 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Saquon Barkley RB NYG +140
Baker Mayfield QB CLE +650
Derrius Guice RB WAS +800
Josh Rosen QB ARI +800
Josh Allen QB BUF +1000

Is Guice Worth a Wager?

Unfortunately, it appears the one person not lauding about Guice is his head coach Jay Gruden, who had the LSU product listed sixth on Washington’s RB depth chart.

Perhaps this is just Gruden trying to hide his rookie back in the preseason. Guice has certainly been impressing his teammates in camp, including quarterback Alex Smith.

Or maybe the 59th-overall pick really does have his work carved out for him in a backfield that already contains Rob Kelley (a Gruden favorite), Chris Thompson, and Samaje Perine, among others.

Either way, I don’t like Guice at +800. He was worth some money at +1700, but even if the 21-year-old does get the start in Washington, he has a tough slate of run defenses to face in 2018.

It’s worth keeping a close eye on Guice in his debut tonight, though, as the Redskins take on the Patriots at 7:30 pm EST.

Where is the Value in 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting?

You’re on the right track with running backs. These are the players who can step in right away and make an immediate impact for their respective squads.

Not to mention, there are currently no rookie QBs expected to start Week 1, and they would all be best served by spending a handful of weeks on the sideline.

With the last two OROY winners being drafted in the third-round or later, it should inspire you to go hunting outside of the first-round for value. My finger stops at Kerryon Johnson of the Detroit Lions at +2500.

The Lions’ second-round pick has quickly proven to be the best back on the roster, and Matt Patricia has made it very clear that Detroit will no longer rely on Matthew Stafford in every situation.

Just wait and see what he does to the Raiders tomorrow (August 10th) night in his debut.

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