Is Derwin James Worth Betting for 2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?
- Derwin James was the 17th overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft
- James currently is among the favorites to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
- No safety has won the award since Chicago’s Mark Carrier did in 1990
The Los Angeles Chargers had few needs when the 2018 NFL Draft kicked off. But the one glaring hole they did have, they filled when Derwin James fell into their lap.
James slid all the way down to 17th overall on Draft night, where the Chargers pounced on the safety. Handed a 6.44 grade by NFL.com, they believed that Derwin James would become an instant starter.
They had good reason to think that. James was thought of as a top-ten pick so it was shocking when he fell. He was also considered one of the best defenders in college entering his second season, which was cut short by injury.
Despite the lost year, he was back on the field for a third season with the Seminoles and dominated.
Not only has the NFL taken notice of James’ immense talent, but Vegas has too.
2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Team | Odds to win 2018 NFL DROY |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley Chubb | DEN | +310 |
| Roquan Smith | CHI | +500 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | BUF | +730 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | MIA | +880 |
| Denzel Ward | CLE | +950 |
| Derwin James | LAC | +1100 |
While his odds have slipped since May, sportsbooks still have him among the top ten when it comes to Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Average 2018 NFL DROY Odds
When odds opened up on May 23, James found himself neck-and-neck with Tremaine Edmunds at +800. The two were well back of leader Bradley Chubb (+140).
Things have changed a bit since then. Chubb leads, but slid a bit (+310), while Edmunds (+730) has moved into third in the race. James rounds out the top six with average NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds of +1100.
While that seems a little far back for a player expected to play a big role in the Chargers’ secondary, it isn’t. James not only is battling the field, but history as well.
Safeties get no love for DROY
Safeties need to have an out of this world season to get consideration for Defensive ROY. It’s only happened twice. In 1988 with Erik McMillan, and in 1990 with Mark Carrier.
McMillan had eight interceptions, two for touchdowns, his rookie year. Carrier made 122 tackles and added 10 picks. Those are standout seasons.
It’s almost like Derwin James lasting until the 17th pick was stupid
— Eric Edholm (@Eric_Edholm) August 26, 2018
Since Carrier won, 13 linebackers, six defensive ends, four corners, and four defensive tackles have taken home the hardware.
| 84 | Tackles | 122 |
| 1.0 | Sacks | 0.0 |
| 0/0 | Fumbles (Forced/Recovered) | 0/2 |
| 2 | INT | 10 |
| 1 | Def TD | 0 |
What would Derwin James have to do to win DROY?
He’ll basically have to have an all-time season for a rookie safety. Hand-in-hand with that, he’ll essentially have to never come off the field.
That may be closer to reality than fantasy.
After seeing James in the preseason, he may be set to do it all for the Chargers. He’ll shadow tight ends. He’ll cover running backs. He can handle typical safety responsibilities. He can even play the center field role.
Physically, he’s probably more talented than Jamal Adams. Derwin is still learning so he has a sky-high projection if his play can catch up to the talent.
-NFL.com Draft profile
James has the raw physical tools and the instincts. He showed both at Florida State. The Chargers just need to get him on the field and let him do his thing. And if that includes picking off Hall of Fame QBs?
So be it.
Is Derwin James worth a wager?
The NFL is changing. While pass rushers are still in vogue, the Swiss army knife defensive back is the new, hip thing.
Derwin James was one of the Chargers highest graded players on defense last night. pic.twitter.com/T0xeTIvHzS
— PFF (@PFF) August 26, 2018
Yes, Bradley Chubb gets to learn from and play with Von Miller. And he’ll probably get a ton of sacks. Chubb will get a lot of attention because of that.
But of the next five players and teams based on the odds, the Chargers are the best. They also have the highest expectations, which gives him a leg up on fellow rookie safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. This means James will get the benefit of making an impact on a good team. He also gets a big stage to do it on.
All good things when you’re trying to break a 17-year drought.
It’s been a long time coming, but a safety may finally be worthy of stealing back the DROY crown.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
