Texans Still -175 Favorites to Win AFC South Despite Loss to Broncos; Titans Now +150
- The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, both 8-5, sit atop the AFC South
- Tennessee has won five of its last six games
- The Indianapolis Colts, once first in the division at 5-2, have lost five of six
Welcome to the AFC South, the NFL’s most dysfunctional division. At different times this season, three different teams have looked to be certain winners of this group.
Not so long ago, the Indianapolis Colts were 5-2 and atop the AFC South. Since then, they’ve lost five of six.
The Colts gave way to the Houston Texans. Last week, after Houston stunned the two-time defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, the Texans sat in first at 8-4. Then they were walloped by the Denver Broncos.
Suddenly, it’s the Tennessee Titans who look to be the real deal. Tennessee is 6-1 since replacing starting quarterback Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. At 8-5, the Titans share top spot in the division with Houston, but it’s the Texans who sportsbooks still list as the -175 favorites in the AFC South odds.
2019 AFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans | -175 |
| Tennessee Titans | +150 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +5000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | N/A |
Odds taken on December 9
Houston and Tennessee meet twice over the final three weeks of the NFL regular season. The Titans are three-point favorites to beat the Texans at home in Week 15.
Houston Has a Big Problem
All of the analytics still suggest that the Texans are in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South. ESPN’s FPI puts Houston at 73.9 percent to win the division. Along with home-and-home against the Titans, Houston’s other remaining game is at 6-7 Tampa Bay.
Sunday’s 38-24 drubbing at home by the 4-9 Denver Broncos suggests that Houston has itself a problem. Broncos rookie quarterback Drew Lock seared the Texans defense for 309 yards through the air.
The Houston Texans are 1-4 this season when allowing over 24 points in a game.
The Titans are averaging 37.5 points over their last four games.
— Allan Bell (@AllanBell247) December 9, 2019
The Texans are a tough team to figure. They’ve beaten the Patriots and Chiefs. They’ve also lost three games to teams with losing records, two of them at home. Regardless, if they split with Tennessee and beat the Bucs, they win every tiebreaker for the division title.
Colts Need to Watch Some Indy Films
What’s happened to the Colts? They’ve lost three in a row and five of six. In Sunday’s 38-35 loss to Tampa Bay, the Indy defense surrendered a season-high 542 yards.
We’d like the thank the Indianapolis #Colts for participating in the 2019 NFL season. pic.twitter.com/YrgG6H3KHg
— Hammer and Nigel (@hammerandnigel) December 1, 2019
There are plenty of reasons for Indy’s demise, and they run far deeper than QB Andrew Luck’s shock retirement on the eve of the season. Colts kickers have combined to miss an NFL-high 15 field goals.
They’ve averaged 19.8 points per game in their past four games. Sunday’s loss was the first in five games that QB Jacoby Brissett topped 200 yards in passing.
Titans Will Be Remembered
Among the momentous moves of the 2019 NFL season, the decision of coach Mike Vrabel to install Tannehill under center might be #1. Tennessee isn’t just winning games. The Titans are rolling teams.
Since naming Ryan Tannehill the starting QB in Week 7, the Titans have the 2nd-most offensive TDs and are scoring the 2nd-most PPG (31.4) in the NFL over that span. pic.twitter.com/1rbm9WrljB
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 9, 2019
They sliced and diced the Raiders in Sunday’s 42-21 victory for 552 yards of total offense. Running back Derrick Henry is second in the NFL in rushing (1,253 yards) and tied for first with 13 rushing touchdowns.
2019 AFC South Skinny
| Team | Season Record | Division Record | Conference Record | Remaining Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 8-5 | 3-1 | 7-3 | @Texans; @Buccaneers; Texans |
| Tennessee Titans | 8-5 | 2-2 | 6-4 | Texans; Saints; @Texans |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6-7 | 3-2 | 5-6 | @Saints; Panthers; @Jaguars |
Tennessee is winning the games that must be won. The Titans posted successive victories over the Colts and Raiders in the past two games, teams that were neck-and-neck with them in the AFC Wild Card race.
Derrick Henry had his 4th consecutive 100-yd rushing game. He's gained 599 yds and scored 7 TDs on the ground in that span. #Titans pic.twitter.com/cqIFqh02DQ
— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) December 9, 2019
Indy is finished. Houston is erratic. Tennessee scares every NFL team right now. And the Titans control their destiny.
Ride the hot hand. Remember to bet the Titans.
Pick: Tennessee Titans (+150).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
