Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 5
- The red-hot Lions offense heads to New England to take on the banged up Patriots
- 2022 Record: 4-4, -0.33 units
- The Lions vs Patriots odds see New England open as a three-point favorite
Four weeks into the 2022 NFL season and…the Detroit Lions have one of the best offenses in football?
It’s true. The Detroit Lions (1-3) enter Week 5 with the fifth-most passing yards, the most passing plays of 20+ yards, and they’re tied atop the league in passing TDs. They sit first in the league with 18 total scores.
And in Week 5 they take on a team struggling with injuries and to find their identity in New England. The Patriots (1-3) have been uncharacteristically sloppy through three weeks.
Kickoff between two teams looking for their second win is set for 1:00 pm ET from Gillette Stadium on FOX.
Lions vs Patriots Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | +135 | +3.0 (-106) | Ov 45.5 (-113) |
| New England Patriots | -165 | -3.0 (-115) | Un 45.5 (-108) |
Odds as of October 8th from Barstool Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the Barstool Sportsbook promo code ahead of kickoff on Sunday.
Despite the fact they’re likely trotting out their third-string QB, the Patriots are three-point favorites. Since starting off scoring 24 points in two weeks, they put up 26 and 24 points in each of Weeks 3 and 4.
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The Lions meanwhile, have been assaulting the over almost single-handedly. They’ve scored 35+ points in three of their four games, which may be why NFL Public Betting is weighing that direction.
Lions vs Patriots Injury Report
The Patriots biggest injury question is still Mac Jones and his ankle.
Jones skipped surgery on his high-ankle sprain, and is getting in limited sessions this week. But then backup Brian Hoyer ended up on IR with a concussion. With just one other QB on the practice squad, it’s possible Jones could be active.
Week 5 Injury Report
| Lions | Injury, Status | Patriots | Injury, Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quintez Cephus, WR | Foot, OUT | Lawrence Guy, DL | Shoulder, OUT |
| DJ Chark, WR | Ankle, OUT | Damarcus Mitchell, DL | Concussion, OUT |
| John Cominsky, DL | Wrist, OUT | Mac Jones, QB | Ankle, Doubtful |
| Charles Harris, DE | Groin, OUT | Jonnu Smith, TE | Ankle, Doubtful |
| Matt Nelson, T | Calf, OUT | Kyle Dugger, S | Knee, Questionable |
| D’Andre Swift, RB | Shoulder, OUT | Raekwon McMillion, LB | Thumb, Questionable |
| Kayode Awosika, G | Hamstring, Questionable | Jakobi Meyers, WR | Knee, Questionable |
| Chris Board, LB | Knee, Questionable | Jalen Mills, CB | Hamstring, Questionable |
| Evan Brown, C | Ankle, Questionable | Adrian Phillips, S | Ribs, Questionable |
| Jonah Jackson, G | Finger, Questionable | Isaiah Wynn, T | Hip, Questionable |
| Josh Reynolds, WR | Ankle, Questionable | N/A | N/A |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Ankle, Questionable | N/A | N/A |
Detroit could be missing two key offensive players for a second-straight week. D’Andre Swift has already been declared out. Meanwhile Amon-Ra St. Brown returned to practice on Friday, but is listed as questionable.
Patriots Friday practice report: Mac Jones present for the start of practice for the third day in a row … his status on the injury report the next domino to fall. pic.twitter.com/Xl8pLTekH2
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 7, 2022
The Lions got good news throughout the week as Josh Reynolds, TJ Hockenson, Frank Ragnow and Evan Brown all returned after missing Wednesday. DJ Chark was a part of that group too, but he won’t play Sunday.
Lions Top-Ranked Offense
The expectations weren’t exactly high for Detroit following the Matthew Stafford/Jared Goff trade.
2021 wasn’t a flying start. The Lions finished with the seventh-lowest yards-per-attempt, and they were in the middle of the pack when it came to yards and TDs. This year is a different story.
Jared Goff: 2021 vs 2022
| 67.2% | Completion Percentage | 60.9% |
| 231.8 | Yards/Game | 281.5 |
| 6.57 | Yards/Attempt | 7.46 |
| 1.4 | TD/Game | 2.8 |
| 0.6 | INT/Game | 0.8 |
| 91.5 | Rating | 99.9 |
Despite sitting below the .500 mark, the Patriots defense has done a good job to this point in the season. They’re in the middle tier in terms of yards-per-attempt and completion percentage allowed, and they’re 11th in passing yards allowed.
We live in a world where Jared Goff, Josh Reynolds, and Tom Kennedy are a more productive trio than Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton.
— DLB (@DetLionBlood) October 7, 2022
They’re coming off of a week where they held Aaron Rodgers to 251 yards and a pair of TDs. They struggled to contain the Packers on the ground though, allowing Aaron Rodgers to rack up 110 yards and a 6.9 yards a carry. AJ Dillon rolled up the yards to the tune of 4.3 a tote.
But the good news for the Patriots is that they have their own dynamic ground game.
Harris, Stevenson Keying Patriots Rushing Attack
In that same game, Damien Harris rolled up 86 yards on 18 carries and Rhamondre Stevenson had 66 yards on 14 carries. Stevenson also had four catches for 23 yards.
The two could feast again.
It’s either a Damien Harris week or Rhamondre Stevenson week and I have absolutely no idea which one
— Justin (@Justin_14P) October 5, 2022
Detroit has been gouged for 662 yards on the ground, the third-most in the league. They’re also allowing the highest yards-per-carry at 5.6, giving up 40 first downs via the run and 10 TDs.
Many criticized the Patriots for playing it careful with Bailey Zappe last week, but this is a situation where they could get away with it.
Lions vs Patriots Pick
Based on the way the Lions have been scoring, backing the under seems like a weird play. But the clock may not be on the side of points.
The Patriots will probably lock in on the ground game, and if they find success with something, they stick with it. That means there’s a lot time ticking away.
And while the aerial attack has been baffling opponents, Detroit has also played three defenses in the top ten for passing yards allowed.
It may be a rough day for some fantasy owners in Foxborough.
The Pick: Under 45.5 (-108); 1 unit
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
