Upcoming Match-ups

As Drew Lock Hype Intensifies, His 2020 NFL MVP Odds Improve Significantly

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 4:28 PM PST

Drew Lock on the practice field
FILE - Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock (3) confers with quarterback Riley Neal as they take part in drills during an NFL football practice at the team's headquarters in Englewood, Colo., in this in this file Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020, file photo. The Broncos activated three quarterbacks—starter Lock and backups Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles—on Tuesday, Dec. 1, from the COVID-19 list to insure that the team has quarterbacks on the roster for Sunday's game against division-rival Chiefs in Kansas City unlike this past Sunday's game against New Orleans when the Broncos had no signal-callers to take the gridiron. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
  • The odds of Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock winning the 2020 NFL MVP Award have dramatically shortened
  • His average betting line improved from +10000 to +5625. Is Lock worth a look at that price?
  • Robert Duff analyzes the odds and betting value 

Drew Lock certainly isn’t a lock to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award. However, the Denver Broncos quarterback saw his odds suddenly get significantly shorter.

When action opened on this prop, a bettor could get odds of +10000 on the sophomore QB being named the MVP of the 2020 NFL season. By April 28th, he’d shortened to +8750 in the NFL MVP odds.

Today, across the leading sportsbooks, Lock is listed at average odds of +5625. You can find him as short as +4000 at some sportsbooks, and as long as +7000 at other betting houses.

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Player Team Odds
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs +350
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens +800
Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys +1000
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks +1000
Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals +1200
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills +1800
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers +2000
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints +2000
Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles +2200
Deshaun Watson Houston Texans +2200
Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns +2500
Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers +3000
Christian McCaffrey Carolina Panthers +3300
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers +3500
Drew Lock Denver Broncos +4000
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons +4000

Odds taken June 11th.

Quarterbacks have won the last seven NFL MVP Awards. It’s been captured twice by Broncos QBs – Peyton Manning in 2013 and John Elway in 1987.

Lock Fits MVP Trend

Bettors love to look for trending topics and, certainly, Lock’s circumstances fit the narrative in terms of comparables to recent NFL MVPs.

The last two winners were Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (2018) and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (2019). Both QBs turned in record-setting performances during their MVP campaigns.

Each began the season prior to their MVP year sitting on the bench. Mahomes watched Alex Smith start for KC until the last game of the 2017 season. Jackson was understudy to Joe Flacco with the 2018 Ravens before ascending to the starting role during the season.

Oddly enough, Lock also served as backup to Flacco with the Broncos last season before taking over the reins late in the season.

Revamped Denver Offense

The Broncos will take a much different offense onto the field for the 2020 NFL season. Lock will be the starter to begin the year, and he’ll have some new weapons at his disposal.

Free-agent addition Melvin Gordon joins the backfield. He was a 1,000-yard rusher for the Los Angeles Chargers as recently as 2017. As well, Gordon has accounted for 41 touchdowns over the past four seasons.

Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was Denver’s first-round draft pick. He caught 77 passes for 1,163 yards and 10 TDs last season with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

There’s also a new mastermind in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. The former New York Giants head coach owns a successful history working with new starting QBs as an OC – Sam Bradford (Rams), Nick Foles (Eagles), and Case Keenum (Vikings).

Lock’s Story Is Familiar

Denver went 4-1 to finish the year with Lock under center. That’s created a hype machine around what he might accomplish during a full season.

Lock appears to have replaced Kyler Murray of the Cardinals as the sophomore QB getting the MVP buzz. In reality, though, his story isn’t as reminiscent of Jackson or Mahomes as it is of another sophomore QB who took over as starter late in his rookie season.

That would be Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, who epitomized the sophomore jinx with the Browns last season.

Locking in Lock as NFL MVP isn’t a wise investment … at any price.

Author Image